ERITREA'S SUDANESE VENTURE CONTINUES WITH DARFUR

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASMARA 000838

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

LONDON, PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/12/2016
TAGS: PREL PINR PGOV ER SU
SUBJECT: ERITREA'S SUDANESE VENTURE CONTINUES WITH DARFUR

REF: A. KHARTOUM 02454 B. KHARTOUM 02479

Classified By: CDA Jennifer A. McIntyre, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Since the visits of Sudanese VP Salva Kiir
and a
National Congress Party (NCP) delegation in late August,
rumors
have been circulating about an Eritrean-hosted DPA
non-signatories
conference. With the Sudan People's Liberation Movement
(SPLM)
initiative to host a Darfur meeting in Yey seemingly fallen
by the
wayside, a GSE-led initiative seems to be moving forward,
perhaps
beginning as early as next week. Darfur non-signatory
representatives are beginning to gather in Asmara. Yemane
Ghebreab, the Eritrean mediator for the concluding
GNU/Eastern
Front talks, told the Ambassador on October 5 that the GSE is
willing to play mediator in bringing all the DPA
non-signatories
together to find a lasting solution to the problems of
Darfur.
While Ghebreab claims the GSE would work from the DPA in
negotiations, the results of a GSE-led mediation is
impossible to
predict. Like the Eastern Front/GNU mediation, the
Government of
the State of Eritrea (GSE) is unlikely to invite the
international
community to participate or observe the talks, limiting the
community's ability to influence the final outcome. End
Summary.

ABDULWAHID EXPRESSES SUPPORT FOR ERITREA AND THE NRF
-------------- --------------


2. (C) In a recent interview given in Asharq Al Awsat (Ref A)
as
well as in an al-Jazeera television interview, Abdulwahid Al
Nur
explained that he supports Eritrea in the role of negotiator
between the DPA non-signatories, commenting that "no country
in
the world is more competent than Eritrea to be a mediator
between
us (Darfurians) and the GOS." Moreover, he claimed in both
interviews that all of the Darfur factions were united and
aligned
with the NRF. In recent meetings with the diplomatic
community,
including his recent meeting with EU Special Envoy for Sudan
Pekka
Haavisto, Abdulwahid attended with Justice and Equality
Movement
(JEM) representatives in tow -- an interesting development
given
Abdulwahid's rhetoric of just two months ago when he claimed
that
there were irreconcilable differences between him and JEM
leader,
Khalil Ibrahim. While Abdulwahid appears to be cozying up to
the
NRF, Ahmed Abdel Shaffi continues to hold his ground as an
SLM
leader. Shaffi has also intimated that he would be willing
to
participate in a GSE-hosted conference to unite the DPA non-
signatories.

HAIL, HAIL, THE GANG'S ALL HERE
--------------


3. (C) DPA non-signatories continue to filter in. Over the
last
week, Sharif Harir and Ahmed Diraige arrived in Asmara
joining
Abdulwahid and Shaffi who have been resident since June. The
Dutch Embassy informed Emboff that they issued Abdulwahid a
Schengen visa in his fake Eritrean passport on October 11,
after
heavy pressure to do so by the French Ambassador. They
believe
Abdulwahid intends to travel to Paris on the earliest flight
but
plans to return to Asmara in time for the start of any
meetings.
Khamis Abdalla Abakar is expected to arrive in the coming
days,
while Khalil Ibrahim's travel is reportedly being delayed by
the
French authorities in Paris over a passport renewal, but he
is
expected in Asmara soon as well. All of the Darfurians have
been
invited to Asmara under the pretext that the GSE will be
hosting a
meeting aimed at uniting all of the DPA non-signatories under
a
common umbrella and position. Sudanese sources say that all
the
non-signatories have been invited the signing of the Eastern
Sudan
Peace Agreement (ESPA) this Saturday, October 14.

SPLM AND NCP COURTING GSE
--------------


4. (C) Reports from a number of Sudanese experts claim that
both
the SPLM visit and the NCP delegation which visited Asmara in
late
August came here with the goal of courting the GSE regarding
their
proposals for a solution to Darfur. Kiir supposedly met with
President Isaias and briefed him on the SPLM initiative to
invite
all the DPA non-signatories along with the NCP and the GSE to
Yey
to find a solution to the Darfur crisis. While Isaias was
supportive of the proposal, inside sources claim that Bashir
quashed the SPLM initiative on Kiir's return to Khartoum.
Only
days later, the NCP sent their own delegation lead by Nafi
ali
Nafi to Asmara August 25-27, and told the GSE that they would
deliver all of the Darfur leaders and allow the GSE to take
the
lead in a DPA non-signatory conference -- if and only if --
the
SPLM was excluded from such a conference.


5. (C) On October 10, Emboff was told by a Sudanese contact
that
on October 7-9, NCP officials Saleh Gosh and Mustafa Osman
Ismael
brought a message from President Bashir asking the GSE to
take the
lead in mediating between the Government of National Unity
(GNU)
and DPA non-signatories. While the extent of the SPLM's role
in a
future mediation is still in question, the NCP has realized
that
their initial push for a quiet mediation has failed and the
SPLM
will have to play some role, albeit most likely a minor one.
The
same Sudanese source claims that this mediation could begin
as
early as next week. He expects that the DPA non-signatories
will
hold a short informal meeting before the talks to reach
agreement
on their negotiating position.

GSE'S TAKE ON DARFUR
--------------


6. (C) In a meeting with the Ambassador on October 5, Yemane
Ghebreab, the GSE mediator on Eastern Sudan, confirmed that
the
GSE would take the lead in negotiating an agreement between
the
DPA non-signatories and the GNU if they were asked to do so
by all
parties. He hinted that both the SPLM and NCP had approached
the
GSE with separate proposals. Ghebreab reiterated previous
statements that the GSE first needed to finish with the
Eastern
Sudan negotiations and then could turn its attention to
Darfur, if
needed. He did not specify any timeframes for a Darfur
meeting or
conference. Ghebreab did state that they would not attempt
to
create a new agreement from scratch, but instead build on the
current DPA and amend it with items focused on issues of
concern
that were not addressed in the earlier agreement. While
Ghebreab
said the GSE was aware of other conference proposals being
discussed, he did not offer any support for these
initiatives.
Similarly, he did not comment on whether the international
community would have a role in a future GSE-led mediation
between
the GNU and DPA non-signatories.

COMMENT
--------------


7. (C) The Eritreans continue to solidify their role as a key
player in Sudan. Now that the Eastern Sudan issue appears
almost
wrapped up, the GSE's focus on Darfur is becoming more
intense. A
GSE-led mediation is an almost certainty in the near future.
We
are hearing around town that neither the DPA non-signatories
nor
GNU itself are entertaining any alternative conference
proposals
at this time. Post anticipates that the international
community
will not be invited to participate or observe a GSE-led
conference. While Ghebreab seemed sincere about the GSE's
intention to use the DPA as the baseline from which to
mediate,
post and the other diplomatic missions in town remain wary
about
the potential outcomes of a process over which the
international
community will have no influence.
MCINTYRE