UN SRSG GIVES VIEWS ON ERITREA AND SOMALIA

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SIPDIS

SIPDIS

LONDON FOR AFRICA WATCHERS, PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/11/2016
TAGS: PREL MOPS UNSC PINR KPKO ER SO
SUBJECT: UN SRSG GIVES VIEWS ON ERITREA AND SOMALIA

Classified By: CDA Jennifer McIntyre for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: UN Special Representative for the
Secretary General (SRSG) for Somalia Francois Lonseny

SIPDIS
Fall briefed Emboffs October 5 on his meeting with
Government of the State of Eritrea (GSE) President Isaias
Afwerki and provided his views on the fluid situation in
Somalia. Fall expressed concern that Eritrea and
Ethiopia are embarking on a proxy war in Somalia and
fears that events on the ground may be assuming their own
momentum. The Council of Islamic Courts (CIC)
territorial gains within southern Somalia could create a
fait accompli before the scheduled talks between CIC and
Transitional Federal Government (TFG) in Khartoum. The
momentum of the Courts could also pressure Ethiopia into
a decision to deploy unilaterally to Somalia, in advance
of an IGAD or UN decision. The GSE's involvement in
Somalia appears strategically calculated to strengthen
its position as a regional player. End Summary.

FALL BRIEFS ON MEETING WITH PRESIDENT ISAIAS
--------------


2. (C) On October 4, President Isaias met with SRSG Fall
and Bruno Mpondo-Epo, Director of Political Affairs for
the UN Political Office on Somalia (UNPOS). President
Isaias told SRSG Fall that Eritrea opposes the deployment
of Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD)
troops to Somalia and expressed GSE support for
continuing negotiations between the CIC and TFG. Isaias
stated his view of the CIC as a national, not a
terrorist, movement. He pointedly remarked that Islam
does not equate to terrorism, and that the GSE supports
the CIC actions to use religion, and not clan divisions,
to unite Somalia. President Isaias commented that the
Transitional Federal Government(TFG) does not reflect the
view of the people. He emphasized that all countries in
the region should respect Somalia's sovereignty and not
interfere in their internal affairs. Fall said President
Isaias refuted allegations that Eritrea is engaged in a
proxy war with Ethiopia.


3. (C) With regards to the upcoming meetings between TFG
and CIC in Khartoum, President Isaias told SRSG Fall that
IGAD, AU, EC and UN representatives should attend the
negotiations. Without these four parties present, Isaias
maintained the negotiations would fail.


4. (C) In a sidebar conversation with Poloff, UNPOS
Director Mpondo-Epo added more details of SRSG Fall's
conversations with President Isaias. In the meeting,
President Isaias averred that Eritrea has a
responsibility to the Islamic Courts and said that the
GSE has provided them "notional" support. President
Isaias spoke at length about the emotional connection
between Eritrea and Somalia and about his personal
connection to Somalia, after having spent time there
earlier in his life. Isaias expressed his pleasure that
peace has come at last to southern Somalia and noted with
concern that the international community wants to take
this away from the people.

UNPOS DIRECTOR: ERITREA SEEKS GREATER REGIONAL INFLUENCE
-------------- --------------


5. (C) In assessing Eritrea's role in Somalia, Mpondo-Epo
offered Poloff two explanations for GSE involvement.
First, Eritrea seeks to be a powerful player in the
region. By building an alliance with the CIC, not only
do they get to poke at their Ethiopian neighbors, they
also stand to gain a regionally valuable relationship.
As the Court's political control in Somalia expands and
their relationship with Eritrea strengthens, the GSE
calculates that the international community will need it
to serve as an intermediary with the CIC. With this
strategy, Eritrea strives to become the linchpin to
resolving the conflict in Somalia. Second, the GSE is
focused on keeping Somalia united and anti-Ethiopian --
and as such preventing Ethiopia access to Somalia's
ports, which in turn, would increase the pressure on the
Ethiopians to resolve their border dispute with Eritrea.

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Without sea access through Somalia, Mpondo-Epo posited,
the Ethiopians will be forced to address the border
demarcation in order to begin subsequent negotiations for
access to the Eritrean port of Assab.

FALL CONCERNED OVER SITUATION ON THE GROUND
--------------


6. (C) SRSG Fall expressed his concerns to Emboffs about
Somalia's immediate future. He fears the CIC will not
stop its advance, and with material support from Arab
countries, the situation could deteriorate to civil war
and greater conflict. The CIC, he said, was fomenting
discontent in cities outside of their current control as
to build support for their movement as they approached
these cities, including in Somaliland and in Puntland.
He noted that if action were not taken to protect Baidoa,
the Islamic Courts would eventually take it, if not
directly, then by organizing groups within Baidoa.


7. (C) Based on remarks made by Ethiopian President Meles
Zenawi during their recent meeting, SRSG Fall worried
that Ethiopia may feel it cannot afford to wait for a UN
or IGAD decision to deploy peacekeepers if the CIC
continues its momentum. While Ethiopia supports an IGAD
deployment, Meles may decide to take unilateral action if
the situation continues to sour for the TFG. Fall
expressed concern that Somalia was, in fact, serving as a
proxy war between Ethiopia and Eritrea and confrontation
between them in Somalia could lead to increased tensions
along the Eritrean and Ethiopian border. He found
credible the reports of Eritrean involvement in Somalia,
including the presence of an unnamed Eritrean military
advisor in Mogadishu. He further affirmed Kenya's recent
increase of security along its shared border with
Somalia.


8. (C) SRSG Fall commented on the fluid situation in
Somalia and noted that the balance of power could shift
more heavily to the CIC within the next few weeks. The
upcoming meeting in Khartoum and the next UNSC meeting in
early November may be faced with a markedly different set
of circumstances than at present. He mentioned that some
UNSC members (without naming them) had requested an early
briefing on the situation in the region prior to the UNSC
meeting. Fall also noted the representatives from the
three UN missions in the Horn -- UNMIS, UNMEE and UNPOS -
- were scheduled to meet in Nairobi the weekend of
October 7 to discuss the broader, interlinking regional
issues.


9. (C) SRSG Fall stated that the UN had "no problem" in
principle with IGAD deployment of peacekeepers. IGAD
members remain split, however, with Kenya, Uganda and
Ethiopia supporting deployment and Eritrea, Djibouti and
Sudan in opposition. Further complicating the issue, the
CIC continues to firmly oppose IGAD deployment and even
within the TFG ranks, there is no agreement. Even with
an agreement to deploy peacekeepers, significant issues
would still have to be resolved: for example, identifying
the countries that would provide the recommended eight
battalions and determining who would pay for the
operations. SRSG Fall concluded by cautioning that
before endorsing a deployment, "we need to be sure
deployment will help."

COMMENT
--------------


10. (C) SRSG Fall's meeting with President Isaias offered
no surprises, echoing Eritrea's previous public
statements on Somalia. While Eritre! is clearly involved
in Somalia, the extent of the involvement still remains a
matter of speculation. What is clear is that Eritrea's
cozying up to the CIC is a calculated move to position
the GSE as a key player in the region, similar to the
role they have carved out in their relationship to Sudan.
Eritrea appears to be pursuing a fairly effective
strategy aimed at both increasing their regional
influence and maintaining pressure on Ethiopia. End
Comment.

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MCINTYRE