EASTERN FRONT NEGOTIATIONS CONCLUDING

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASMARA 000829

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

LONDON, PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/11/2016
TAGS: PREL PINR PGOV ER SU
SUBJECT: EASTERN FRONT NEGOTIATIONS CONCLUDING

REF: ASMARA 802

Classified By: CDA Jennifer A. McIntyre, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: The Eastern Front and Government of National
Unity (GNU) initialed the power sharing agreement on October

9. Only the implementation modalities need to be finalized
and these are expected to be resolved by October 13. The
Eastern Front successfully secured a significant number of
governmental positions, including an assistant and advisor
to President Bashir, but the issue of one region was
sidelined pending a GNU-proposed national conference on
federalism. The Eastern Front and other sources claim that
the eastern Sudan agreement will be signed October 14.
President Bashir, Vice-President Kiir and the presidents of
Yemen and Djibouti are rumored to be attending. End Summary.



2. (C) On October 9, the Eastern Front and GNU reached
agreement on the power-sharing arrangements and initialed the
draft agreement. Specifically, on the federal level, the
Eastern Front will get an assistant to the president, an
advisor to the president, one state minister, and ten
national parliament MPs. The Eastern Front, as well as other
observers, were surprised that they were given both positions
of advisor and assistant to the president. It is rumored
that Rashaida Free Lions (RFL) leader Mabrouk Mubarak will
take the position of Advisor to President Bashir and that the
GNU has asked that the position of Assistant to President
Bashir be taken by Beja Congress leader Dr. Amna Dirar. Dr.
Dirar has not decided at this stage whether she will accept
the position. (Comment: Given Dr. Dirar's leadership role
in the Eastern Front, her departure would present an added
challenge in the future development of a strong Eastern Front
party. End Comment.)


3. (C) On the regional level, the Eastern Front did not gain
any governor (Walis) positions, but were given a deputy
governor position in Kassala and Gederaf, with the deputy
governor position in Port Sudan remaining a Democratic
Unionist Party (DUP) post. The Eastern Front also secured
three advisor positions in each of the regions and nine
commissioners. On the local level - which is where many feel
they fared the best - the Eastern Front was allocated five
out of eleven slots in each of the 24 (or 25) local councils
in the three states. Given that the local councils have the
most direct contact with communities, this is where some
Sudan experts believe the Eastern Front could have the most
impact, especially as they try to transform themselves into a
political party over the next two years leading up to
national elections.


4. (C) The Eastern Front not only did not achieve their goal
of one state for eastern Sudan, they also failed to get a
coordinating body for eastern Sudan. Instead, the GNU held
its ground, fearing that if a precedent of one state was
struck in the east, it would need to follow suit in Darfur.
As detailed in reftel, the GNU has agreed to a national
conference on federalism to be held in the next year,
although GNU negotiators would not confirm dates or times.
The GNU presented the position that it must first tackle the
problems of Darfur before moving onto a national conference.
After the conference is held, the GNU agreed it would then
hold a national referendum on whether to return to a federal
Sudan. Some experts, such as Dr. Taisir Ali fear that the
Eastern Front's failure to get details from the GNU now may
mean a lack of commitment to such a proposal in the future.


5. (C) Currently, the Eastern Front and GNU are working out
the implementation modalities. Specifically, they are
focusing on a mechanism for oversight of the wealth-sharing
fund, oversight over the security arrangement and
implementation of the overall agreement, anticipated to be
completed by the end of the week. The signing of the Eastern
Front/GNU agreement is planned for Saturday, October 14.
President Isaias, President Bashir, Vice-President Kiir, the
presidents of Yemen and Djibouti as well as senior Arab
League representatives are expected to attend the signing.
(Comment: Post predicts the U.S. Embassy and other Western
diplomatic missions will receive last-minute invitations.
End Comment.)


6. (C) Following the signing, the Eastern Front plans to hold
a conference in Tesseney, Eritrea from October 30 until
November 5, to work out their next steps and implementation
of the agreement in eastern Sudan. On November 8 and 9, the
Eastern Front leadership will take part in an European
Commission (EC) sponsored training in Asmara, led by Dr.
Taisir Ali of the Peacebuilding Center in the Horn of Africa
(PCHA),focused on preparing the leadership for returning to
positions in Khartoum and eastern Sudan. The EC plans to
bring Sudanese experts from Khartoum to discuss key areas of
concern, such as changes in the constitution, legislature and
politics over the last decade. That training will be
followed by a longer three-week course also sponsored by the
EC and run by PCHA focused on approximately 40 individuals
who will be taking positions in the local councils.


7. (C) Comment: Post is pleasantly surprised by the number
of positions conceded to the Eastern Front in the
power-sharing agreement, especially at the presidential and
local levels. This level of representation could provide the
opportunity for the Eastern Front to transform itself into a
sustainable political entity, if the right support and
training are provided. The next few weeks will be
instrumental in getting the Eastern Front ready for
implementation of the agreement and building their
organization into a viable entity before national elections.
Proposed USG-funded programs could effectively build on the
EC's immediate-term training by focusing on longer-term
capacity-building needs. Post will provide a more detailed
training proposal by e-mail to AF/SPG and Embassy Khartoum.
End Comment.
MCINTYRE