Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06ASMARA679
2006-08-21 15:13:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Asmara
Cable title:  

EASTERN FRONT/GNU NEGOTIATIONS PROCEED, NO

Tags:  PREL PGOV UNSC ETTC ER SU 
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RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 1363
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RUEHEG/AMEMBASSY CAIRO 0331
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RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA
C O N F I D E N T I A L ASMARA 000679 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

LONDON FOR AFRICA WATCHERS
PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/21/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV UNSC ETTC ER SU
SUBJECT: EASTERN FRONT/GNU NEGOTIATIONS PROCEED, NO
AGREEMENTS YET


CLASSIFIED BY: CDA Jennifer A. McIntyre, for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASMARA 000679

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

LONDON FOR AFRICA WATCHERS
PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/21/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV UNSC ETTC ER SU
SUBJECT: EASTERN FRONT/GNU NEGOTIATIONS PROCEED, NO
AGREEMENTS YET


CLASSIFIED BY: CDA Jennifer A. McIntyre, for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: While the Eastern Front and the
Government of Nation Unity(GNU) have both expressed
optimism about progress in negotiations since their
resumption August 8, outside advisors for the Eastern
Front expressed concern about the Eastern Front's
capabilities to achieve a fair agreement. The two
trickiest issues - unification of the three eastern
states and wealth sharing - remain as yet unresolved.
Eastern Front leadership supports the idea of capacity
training as suggested by AF/SPG. End Summary.

VIEW FROM THE EASTERN FRONT
--------------


2. (C) On August 17, Poloff met with Dr. Amna Dirar,
vice-chairman of the Eastern Front and chairman of the
Beja Congress. While remaining optimistic about the
direction of the talks, Dr. Dirar did express
disappointment in the committee discussions on wealth
sharing, which had concluded the same day without
resolution of all of the issues. The GNU's proposal of
USD 300 million for development and rehabilitation
projects fell well below the Eastern Front's proposal of
over USD 1 billion. The Eastern Front's proposal
identified specific projects in areas such as health,
education, agriculture and infrastructure. Most of these
projects are small community targeted programs, such as
health centers, wells and small livestock programs. In
contradiction of an August 17th GSE-issued press release
stating that the parties had come to agreement, Dr. Dirar
said that no agreement had been reached. Both parties
have consented to present outstanding issues to the
mediator for resolution. Dirar noted that the primary
unresolved economic issue for the Eastern Front is the
total amount of money proposed by the GNU.


3. (C) Looking forward to committee discussions on
security and power sharing which begin on August 21,
Dirar reiterated the Eastern Front's commitment to
unifying the three states of Kasala, Red Sea and Gederaf.

While admitting that some members of the Eastern Front
are considering alternatives, she reinforced that the
one-state issue continues to be of utmost importance.
She also said that the Eastern Front will be seeking to
increase their representation within the military, police
and the government institutions, including a vice
president position at the central level.


4. (C) Dirar expressed appreciation for the support of
Dr. Sara Pantuliano of the Overseas Development
Institute. Pantuliano, a well-known and respected expert
on Eastern Sudan, had provided assistance to the Eastern
Front as they prepared for daily meetings. (Note:
Pantuliano departed Asmara on August 19 but will return
in September. End note.) Dirar repeated her request for
additional international support in the areas of
capacity-building and for immediate financial support to
cover the expenses of negotiations.

VIEW FROM THE SUDANESE EMBASSY
--------------


5. (C) During an introductory call by Charge on August
15, Sudanese Charge Hussein Mohamed Hussein stated that
negotiations were going well and an agreement could be
quickly reached. He noted that "80 percent" of the
security committee's work and "90 percent" of the
economic/wealth-sharing negotiations were complete. When
asked about the outstanding political issues, Hussein
explained that the GNU would not support the creation of
a single state for the East and noted that the East

already had adequate representation in the government.
(Comment: The statement regarding the security
committee's work is interesting considering that the
security committee is scheduled to begin discussion the
week of August 21. End comment.) He added that the
political issues were not in fact vital to the Eastern
Front as long as the economic issues were addressed.

VIEW FROM THE EGYPTIANS
--------------


6. (C) Charge met with Egyptian DCM Hussein Elshar on
August 19, long-term diplomat in Eritrea and follower of
Sudan issues. Hussein disagreed with the Sudanese
assessment that the Eastern Front would be willing to
sacrifice the political agenda for economic objectives.
However, he noted the Eritreans' strong influence on the
process. A resolution, if any, will ultimately depend on
what the Eritreans decide is in their own interest.

VIEWS FROM EASTERN FRONT ADVISORS
--------------


7. (C) PolOff spoke with Dr. Pantuliano and Dr. Taiseir
Ali of the Peacebuilding Center of the Horn of Africa
(protect) about the talks. Both felt disheartened with
the process thus far, noting that the Eastern Front was
outgunned by the GNU delegation. For example, the GNU
have very high level people from the Ministry of Finance
on their side, while an Eastern Front member, a mid-level
employee of the Ministry, is negotiating with his bosses.
Pantuliano also expressed concern that the Eastern
Front's focus on small-scale projects would not help them
achieve long-term goals of wealth sharing. "A factory
here and a water project there" will not be enough to
support the Eastern Front and the region as a whole.
Furthermore, in her meeting with Sudanese officials in
Asmara, Pantuliano overheard conversations between
Sudanese officials indicating that the GNU was "buying-
off" members of the Eastern Front. (Note: The Sudanese
officials speaking in Arabic in her presence were unaware
that she is a fluent Arabic speaker. End note.)


8. (C) Comment: While both delegations are presenting an
optimistic public face, post's discussions with the
parties clearly show that significant gaps still remain
to be bridged on the critical issues of wealth and power
sharing. We doubt the Eastern Front delegation will
readily concede its political agenda to achieve greater
economic gains. We have no evidence that Eastern Front
members have been "bought-off". However, a few members of
the Eastern Front could be susceptible, thus weakening
the Eastern Front's negotiating position. The role of
Eritrea as an honest broker remains a question. Given
that the limited capacity of the Eastern Front will
continue to be an issue, post supports the idea of
providing technical training to the Eastern Front. End
Comment.


MCINTYRE