EF/GNU NEGOTIATIONS UPDATE: REASONABLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASMARA 000625

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/01/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV UNSC ETTC ER SU
SUBJECT: EF/GNU NEGOTIATIONS UPDATE: REASONABLE
PROGRESS BUT TALKS NOW ON HOLD


CLASSIFIED BY: AMB Scott H. DeLisi, for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: According to both Eastern Front
(EF) contacts and Government of the State of
Eritrea (GSE) officials, there has been reasonable
progress on the Eastern Front/Government of
National Unity (EF/GNU) negotiations so far. The
two trickiest issues are no surprise: whether to
unify the three eastern Sudan states into a single
political entity and how to hit the right balance
between revenue sharing and government funding for
development. Separate committees will address
these questions. Surprisingly, however, the talks
were unexpectedly adjourned on July 31, possibly
for a few weeks. We have received no clear
explanation yet for the adjournment but, based on
what we have heard from the parties, have no reason
at this point to believe there are serious
problems. We will advise as further information
becomes available. End Summary.

MEETING WITH DR. AMNA DIRAR
--------------


2. (C) Dr. Amna Dirar, vice-chairman of the Eastern
Front and chairman of the Beja Congress, met with
PolOff on July 26 to provide an update on the
EF/GNU talks. She stated that while negotiations
seemed to be going well, she fears some outstanding
issues may be difficult to resolve, such as the
formation of one state for the east or tackling the
problem of revenue and wealth sharing. She was
also concerned about getting buy-in from the
international community in light of the fact that
there are no observers involved.


3. (C) The creation of one region in eastern Sudan
from the current states of Kasala, Gederaf and Red
Sea has been a focal point for the Eastern Front
since the outset. They believe that the three
states in eastern Sudan are not sustainable on
their own. Moreover, as Dirar suggested, many of
the people in eastern Sudan - and Sudan in general
- are nomads, and the current set-up hurts them in
a number of ways, taxation by the government being
the hardest.


4. (C) Dirar stated that the Eastern Front wants
representation from the local level up to the
presidential institution. While not seemingly
focused on percentages, EF representatives claim
that they want a just and fair share of
representation. They believe they may face
resistance from the GNU, as the GNU has expressed
the view that the east is already represented.
Dirar explained that most of those individuals are
National Congress Party (NCP) members and do not
represent the people of the east.


5. (C) On wealth sharing, Dirar and other Eastern
Front members have stipulated that a certain
percentage of the revenues generated in the east,
must be used to provide education, health and
development assistance to the entire region, as
well as provide compensation to some of the people
in the east especially near Hamesh Koreib and South
Tokar. Dirar also believes that a certain
percentage of the revenues should be used for the
environment and be focused on reversing the
degradation caused by some of the mining,
refineries and other industry in eastern Sudan.
She noted that one of the biggest obstacles for the
Eastern Front at this stage is having a better
sense of the actual amounts of revenues generated
in eastern Sudan. They have asked the diplomatic
community for assistance in trying to gauge how
much gas, gold and minerals are actually in eastern
Sudan, as well as how much revenue is generated by
Port Sudan and the mineral wealth that is exported.
The GNU has not provided the Eastern Front, or to
our knowledge the GSE, with any hard data on

revenues. Dirar has heard that the World Bank did
a survey in eastern Sudan a few years back, but no
one has been able to access such a report.


6. (C) Once the issue of power and wealth sharing
are resolved, negotiations are planned for
finalizing a security arrangement. Thus far, the
cessation of hostilities agreement from June has
held. The Eastern Front believes that the GNU will
take over positions formerly held by the SPLM, but
will not move into Eastern Front areas. Dirar
indicated that the security arrangement talks would
need to focus on the implementation of a
joint/integrated army. The creation of such an
army would need to be gradual and take place over
an 18-24 month period.


7. (C) Dirar also provided a sense of the actual
mediation process. She explained that the Eritrean
mediator spent the first week meeting individually
with both sides. The mediator requested each side
to provide papers and input on the three main
issues - power sharing, wealth sharing and security
arrangements. The second week, beginning July 24,
the mediator brought both sides together to discuss
each of the issues and some of the input provided.
(Note: Other Sudanese sources who have met with the
mediator explained that the GSE took this approach
because they believed the Eastern Front's
expectations were unrealistic. End Note.)


8. (C) Dirar indicated that the initial meetings
with the GNU went well and they were expecting to
start delving into each of the three areas over the
next three weeks, starting with power sharing, and
concluding with security arrangements. She
explained that the GNU had wanted to discuss the
issues simultaneously in smaller groups, but that
the Eastern Front and mediator had pushed back due
to the Eastern Front's lack of capacity. Dirar
added that she and other Eastern Front members were
also meeting with SPLM delegates, Malik Agar in
particular, to seek advice on some of these issues.
She noted that the Eastern Front had lost a strong
supporter from the GNU side with the absence of
SPLM advisor Yasir Arman.

GSE BRIEFING TO THE ASMARA DIPLOMATIC COMMUNITY
-------------- --


9. (C) On July 28, Yemane Ghebreab briefed the
Asmara diplomatic corps on the progress of the
talks which he categorized as "serious but without
high levels of conflict." Confirming the
information provided by Dr. Dirar, Yemane noted the
parties had agreed on general overarching
principles in the three main areas under discussion
to include for the east: greater representation
within the government, greater social equity to
include "affirmative action plans" to redress
development and representational imbalances and
fairer distribution of revenues with a focus on
developmental issues. He noted that the
discussions are still in early stages and have not
yet touched on modalities for implementation.


10. (C) From the GSE perspective, two issues stand
out as the most critical at this point. The
parties have yet to agree whether eastern Sudan
will be recognized as one state, although Yemane
stated both sides were "determined" to find a
solution. Secondly, the parties are discussing a
"holistic" approach to the distribution of revenues
to promote development programs in the east. As
the next step, Yemane said the parties had agreed
to the formation of two committees to work out the
details of these issues.

POSTPONEMENT OF NEGOTIATIONS?
--------------


11. (C) As of July 31, Post has heard that
negotiations will be postponed one to two weeks.
The reasons for postponement are unclear. While
some rumors suggest that the delay could be related
to Eastern Front unreadiness, we also understand
that the head of the GNU delegation, who was called
back to Sudan July 25 supposedly on a short trip,
has yet to return from Khartoum. Whatever the
reason for the postponement, the Eastern Front
could use the time effectively to continue its own
efforts to educate its negotiators both on the
substantive issues and on the art of negotiation.
The imbalance between the expertise of the two
delegations is, according to the GSE's Yemane
Ghebreab, quite clear, although he noted that with
the help of UN and Norwegian advisors, the EF has
so far proven surprisingly capable.

DELISI