LEAD UP TO SECOND ROUND OF EF/KHT

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASMARA 000604

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/19/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV UNSC ETTC ER SU
SUBJECT: LEAD UP TO SECOND ROUND OF EF/KHT
NEGOTIATIONS


CLASSIFIED BY: AMB Scott H. DeLisi, for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: The second round of negotiations
between the Eastern Front and Government of National
Unity (GNU) commenced on July 17, 2006. All sides
were very positive on the prospect of reaching a
quick settlement to the problems that have beset
eastern Sudan. In the lead-up to the second round:
the Eastern Front held a consultative meeting in
Tesseney; the GNU hosted a meeting on eastern Sudan
in Khartoum; and issues between the Sudan People's
Liberation Movement (SPLM) and the National Congress
Party (NCP) which arose the weekend of July 15-16,
raised doubts on whether the SPLM would take part in
the negotiations. Meanwhile, the questions
surrounding the role, if any, for international
observers remain unresolved. Contacts here suggest
that the GSE might be receptive to input on how
better to involve the international community in the
process. Any suggestions from the Department in this
regard would be welcomed. End Summary.

MEETING IN TESSENEY
--------------


2. (C) Leading up to the second round of negotiations
the Eastern Front held a consultative meeting in
Tesseney from 3-7 July. The meetings were generally
viewed as a success and attracted somewhere from
1000-1500 participants from eastern Sudan, Khartoum
and the Beja and Rashaida diaspora communities. When
PolOff spoke with Dr. Amna Dirar, she explained that
the Eastern Front elicited a range of opinions
regarding the negotiations from those who attended
the meeting. One of the key issues discussed was the
role of observers and the international community.
The representatives present felt it was imperative
that there be official observers to lend credibility
to the process. Dirar explained that the Eastern
Front leadership still wanted observers, but were
unsure how to involve them at this point.


3. (C) The consultative meetings stressed a number of
other points meant to guide the Eastern Front
leadership, Dirar explained. Among the most
important was the call for a federal state made up of
Kassala, Gederaf and Red Sea states; a percentage of
revenues being channeled back into eastern Sudan to
help build infrastructure; and a focus on education
in the region. Dirar explained that while the GNU
was invited, they did not attend, and did not allow
the tribal leaders from eastern Sudan to attend.

SUPPORT FROM THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY
--------------


4. (C) Following the consultative meetings in
Tesseney, the Eastern Front had some meetings with
and received training from a group of Norwegian
advisors brought to Asmara to provide assistance to
the Eastern Front - Professor Lane, Dr. Stiansen and Jana
Williamson. The Norwegian Charge, however, admitted
to some concerns on the usefulness of the training.
Along with the Norwegian group, the European
Commission has sent a political advisor on Sudan to
observe the talks. The Eastern Front and GSE
mediator Yemane Ghebreab have also requested that an
Italian national, Sara Pantuliano based in London and
working for the Institute of Development Studies, who
is an expert on the Beja and eastern Sudan come to
attend the talks and advise the Eastern Front,
however funding has not been worked out regarding her
travel and rates.

BASHIR SAYS "NO" TO OBSERVERS
--------------


5. (C) PolOff also received a read-out on the GNU
conference held on eastern Sudan at Freedom Hall in
Khartoum on July 13. According to sources in Asmara,
the meeting which was intended to run for four days
only lasted one day. Overall the sense from our
Sudanese contacts in Asmara was that the meeting did
not achieve the results sought by the NCP. While
Salva Kiir was supposed to provide the opening
statement, he pulled out of the conference just
before due to differences of opinion with Bashir over
Darfur. Similarly, we are told that neither the UMMA
Party nor the DUP sent representatives. In total
only about 100 people attended. A partial
translation of Bashir's statement at the conference
provided by one of our contacts focused on the issue
of observers in the negotiations taking place in
Asmara. In the version we received, Bashir is quoted
as vowing publicly to "never accept observers in
negotiations on eastern Sudan. There is no room for
observers."

KIIR CANCELS TRIP TO ASMARA
--------------


6. (C) Rumors last week also circulated that Salva
Kiir would be making a visit to Asmara on Saturday
evening, July 15 to meet with the Darfur non-
signatories and attempt to consolidate the Abuja
process. The GSE waited until late on Saturday
expecting Kiir to arrive in Asmara, only to be
notified that he would not be making the visit.
Rumor from Sudan contacts is that Kiir put off the
trip due to problems that have arisen between the
SPLM and NCP over Darfur. Primarily Kiir and the
SPLM support a UN force in Darfur and have angered
Bashir and the NCP. Moreover, Kiir is focused on the
lifting of sanctions in southern Sudan and wants to
distance himself from Bashir's intransigence on
Darfur as much as possible before he visits the U.S.
and meets with members of Congress.

SPLM ALMOST DON'T ATTEND NEGOTIATIONS...
--------------


7. (C) While Kiir's last minute cancellation upset
the GSE, news on Sunday, July 16 that the SPLM
delegation might not attend the eastern Sudan
negotiations gave them new concerns. Sources claim
that as of midnight on July 16, news was that the
delegation might not attend the opening session on
July 17 due to the issues raised above, as well as a
feeling that the NCP was not interested in really
solving problems in eastern Sudan. They "want to use
us and the name of the movement (SPLM),but they're
(NCP) not interested in serious negotiations,"
asserted one SPLM source. In the end Minister for
Investment Malik Agar and some of the delegation did
arrive the morning of July 17, however Yassir Arman
stayed behind to head up the committee for the
memorial of John Garang.

OPENING SESSION
--------------


8. (C) The opening session for the Eastern Front and
GNU negotiations was held on July 17, 2006. During
the opening session both the Eastern Front and GNU
offered a very positive take on negotiations and
possibility of a settlement in the coming weeks. The
first sessions began the same evening. No agenda was
shared on July 17 and nothing has been shared with
the international community to date. When PolOff met
with Dr. Amna Dirar last week, the tentative agenda
was to address power sharing, wealth sharing and
security in that order. The Norwegians, EU and
others continue to camp out in the corridors of the
Den-Den Club where the talks are taking place in
hopes of collecting bits of information, but thus far
with minimal success. Initial reports suggest that
so far the talks have been primarily procedurally
focused. The GSE has yet to brief the international
community or establish a mechanism to include
international observers in any way - formally or not.

OBSERVERS OR NOT?

--------------


9. (C) In speaking with contacts who advise the GSE
on Sudan, the wide-spread belief here is that the GNU
may have made "no observers" a precondition to the
Eritreans' hosting negotiations between the Eastern
Front and GNU. Those close to the Eastern Front and
GSE believe that while the exclusion of observers
hurts the Eastern Front more than anyone else, having
anyone other than Eritrea host negotiations, would
probably hurt their prospects for peace even more.
So while the Eastern Front and the rest of the
international community may believe it is a mistake,
they point out that it could be an even bigger one if
the insistence on observers results in the talks
collapsing.


10. (C) As noted above, eastern Front representatives
want more international actors involved in the
negotiations process. Last week, regional Eastern
Front offices in Kassala, Gederaf, Port Sudan and
elsewhere issued statements that observers need to be
involved officially and those involved on the
outskirts in Asmara, also believe that the Eastern
Front and GSE must make an effort to involve
observers. The problem is twofold, does the
international community push so hard that they
sacrifice the negotiation and would we accept an
informal role if it was more structured. The Eastern
Front seems open to recommendations on how to better
involve observers and we believe the GSE would also
be willing to listen to suggestions, especially if
international partners can help make a viable process
a reality.

COMMENT
--------------


11. (C) Post will continue to engage Eastern Front
leaders in the next day or so, regarding the first
few days of negotiations. Thus far, it sounds like
negotiations are moving smoothly. The SPLM's
concerns pose some issues for the GSE. Post believes
that the GSE is very dependant on the SPLM to help
leverage the NCP and, given their historical ties
trusts them as a partner. If the SPLM were to leave
the negotiations problems could arise not just for
the GSE but for the Eastern Front. End Comment.

DELISI