Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06ASMARA1066
2006-12-22 08:43:00
SECRET
Embassy Asmara
Cable title:
ERITREA AND ETHIOPIA SKIRMISH AS THE RUMOR MILL
how-toVZCZCXYZ0000 PP RUEHWEB DE RUEHAE #1066 3560843 ZNY SSSSS ZZH P 220843Z DEC 06 FM AMEMBASSY ASMARA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8612 INFO RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 6036 RUEHDJ/AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI 2916 RUEHKH/AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM 0205 RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 1274 RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 1453 RUEPADJ/CJTF-HOA J2X CAMP LEMONIER DJ RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0591 RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
S E C R E T ASMARA 001066
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
LONDON FOR AFRICA WATCHERS
PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/22/2016
TAGS: PGOV KPKO MARR PINR UNSC ER
SUBJECT: ERITREA AND ETHIOPIA SKIRMISH AS THE RUMOR MILL
HEATS UP
REF: A. 191234Z DEC 06 ASMARA IIR 6 908 0104 07
B. 191232Z DEC 06 ASMARA IIR 6 908 0103 07
Classified By: AMB SCOTT H. DELISI FOR REASONS 1.4(B) AND (D).
S E C R E T ASMARA 001066
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
LONDON FOR AFRICA WATCHERS
PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/22/2016
TAGS: PGOV KPKO MARR PINR UNSC ER
SUBJECT: ERITREA AND ETHIOPIA SKIRMISH AS THE RUMOR MILL
HEATS UP
REF: A. 191234Z DEC 06 ASMARA IIR 6 908 0104 07
B. 191232Z DEC 06 ASMARA IIR 6 908 0103 07
Classified By: AMB SCOTT H. DELISI FOR REASONS 1.4(B) AND (D).
1. (S) Reports of two separate attacks by Eritrean Defense
Forces(EDF) on Ethiopian National Defense Forces(ENDF)
(Reftel A and B) in the region of the central sector of the
Temporary Security Zone (TSZ) and the rumors and rumblings in
Asmara of an impending war, have increased the level of
interest by the local populace in EDF activities and raised
questions about Eritrea's intentions. Following the two
incidents on November 21 and December 7, UNMEE officials were
able to walk the terrain. The evidence gathered, coupled
with reports from local residents and the ENDF allowed UNMEE
to piece together scenarios for the two events. UNMEE
sources reported that on November 21, EDF troops apparently
attacked an ENDF post at Mukuatsada village. An exchange of
fire ensued resulting in the death of three EDF soldiers and
gunshot wounds to two ENDF soldiers. There were no reports
that either side took prisoners or of civilian casualties.
Subsequently, on December 7, the EDF appears to have launched
another attack near the village of K'Sadika, with EDF forces
reportedly striking an ENDF post from two directions. The
ENDF responded. Fighting continued for approximately one
hour and fifteen minutes resulting in the capture, or
defection, of one EDF soldier and the death of a
twelve-year-old local boy.
2. (S) Comment: Asmarinos are speculating widely about
"preparations" by the Government of the State of Eritrea
(GSE) for war with Ethiopia and some see indicators,
including conscription round-ups, as suggesting war may be
around the corner. Such "preparations," however, have been
part of life in Eritrea for years and post is not inclined to
read too much into these developments. Nor do we believe
that these two recent EDF-initiated incidents along the
border are precursors to a full-scale offensive or an attempt
to seize Badme while the Ethiopians are preoccupied with the
challenge posed by the Council of Islamic Courts (CIC) in
Somalia. Rather we see these two attacks as consistent with
the GSE's broader regional calculations. The GSE is closely
watching Ethiopia's unfolding conflict with the CIC and
undoubtedly hoping that Ethiopia will stumble and Meles'
regime will unravel. These two border incidents )- as
discussed reftels -- appear intended to harass and distract
the ENDF and to force the Ethiopians to maintain a level of
force preparedness along the disputed border, while it seeks
to concentrate on Somalia. However, even though the GSE may
not be seeking to provoke a full-scale conflict on the
Eritrean-Ethiopian border, the risk remains that actions by
either side could be misinterpreted and escalate into a more
significant military encounter. There is a somewhat delicate
balance on both sides of the border at present and, though we
doubt either side is seeking a significant escalation, the
situation warrants continued careful attention. End comment.
DELISI
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
LONDON FOR AFRICA WATCHERS
PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/22/2016
TAGS: PGOV KPKO MARR PINR UNSC ER
SUBJECT: ERITREA AND ETHIOPIA SKIRMISH AS THE RUMOR MILL
HEATS UP
REF: A. 191234Z DEC 06 ASMARA IIR 6 908 0104 07
B. 191232Z DEC 06 ASMARA IIR 6 908 0103 07
Classified By: AMB SCOTT H. DELISI FOR REASONS 1.4(B) AND (D).
1. (S) Reports of two separate attacks by Eritrean Defense
Forces(EDF) on Ethiopian National Defense Forces(ENDF)
(Reftel A and B) in the region of the central sector of the
Temporary Security Zone (TSZ) and the rumors and rumblings in
Asmara of an impending war, have increased the level of
interest by the local populace in EDF activities and raised
questions about Eritrea's intentions. Following the two
incidents on November 21 and December 7, UNMEE officials were
able to walk the terrain. The evidence gathered, coupled
with reports from local residents and the ENDF allowed UNMEE
to piece together scenarios for the two events. UNMEE
sources reported that on November 21, EDF troops apparently
attacked an ENDF post at Mukuatsada village. An exchange of
fire ensued resulting in the death of three EDF soldiers and
gunshot wounds to two ENDF soldiers. There were no reports
that either side took prisoners or of civilian casualties.
Subsequently, on December 7, the EDF appears to have launched
another attack near the village of K'Sadika, with EDF forces
reportedly striking an ENDF post from two directions. The
ENDF responded. Fighting continued for approximately one
hour and fifteen minutes resulting in the capture, or
defection, of one EDF soldier and the death of a
twelve-year-old local boy.
2. (S) Comment: Asmarinos are speculating widely about
"preparations" by the Government of the State of Eritrea
(GSE) for war with Ethiopia and some see indicators,
including conscription round-ups, as suggesting war may be
around the corner. Such "preparations," however, have been
part of life in Eritrea for years and post is not inclined to
read too much into these developments. Nor do we believe
that these two recent EDF-initiated incidents along the
border are precursors to a full-scale offensive or an attempt
to seize Badme while the Ethiopians are preoccupied with the
challenge posed by the Council of Islamic Courts (CIC) in
Somalia. Rather we see these two attacks as consistent with
the GSE's broader regional calculations. The GSE is closely
watching Ethiopia's unfolding conflict with the CIC and
undoubtedly hoping that Ethiopia will stumble and Meles'
regime will unravel. These two border incidents )- as
discussed reftels -- appear intended to harass and distract
the ENDF and to force the Ethiopians to maintain a level of
force preparedness along the disputed border, while it seeks
to concentrate on Somalia. However, even though the GSE may
not be seeking to provoke a full-scale conflict on the
Eritrean-Ethiopian border, the risk remains that actions by
either side could be misinterpreted and escalate into a more
significant military encounter. There is a somewhat delicate
balance on both sides of the border at present and, though we
doubt either side is seeking a significant escalation, the
situation warrants continued careful attention. End comment.
DELISI