THINKING ABOUT NOT EXTENDING THE JACKSON-VANIK

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASHGABAT 000947

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/CEN (PERRY)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/07/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL TX
SUBJECT: THINKING ABOUT NOT EXTENDING THE JACKSON-VANIK
WAIVER FOR TURKMENISTAN

REF: A. 09/05/06 EMBASSY ASHGABAT-SCA/CE OI


B. ASHGABAT 884

C. ASHGABAT 942

D. ASHGABAT 932

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i. Jennifer L. Brush for reasons 1.
4 (B) and (D).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Since the last Jackson-Vanik Waiver review, the
Government of Turkmenistan has made no progress on freedom of
movement and even has refused to engage with the embassy on
the subject. Based on the above, post recommends the
Department begin considering not extending the waiver.
Charge intends to inform Foreign Minister Meredov of this
determination at the Tajikistan National Day reception this
evening, September 7, in view of the fact that Meredov has
refused to meet with any USG official since August 14.
Absent the Department's objections, post also intends to
submit the attached diplomatic note on September 8. End
Summary

Waiting for Meredov
--------------


2. (C) Beginning with his refusal to meet with PDAS Mann
during the latter's August 14-15 visit to Turkmenistan (ref
B),and continuing over the past 24 days, Foreign Minister
Meredov has avoided meeting with the Charge despite almost
daily -- and at times hourly -- requests for access. On
three occasions, during various national days, Meredov made a
point of publicly approaching Charge to say we needed to meet
and Charge readily agreed. Meredov did not follow up on
these requests. From September 1-5, the P-3 (United States,
UK and France) requested, to no avail, a meeting with Meredov
to demarche against signing a Central Asian Nuclear Weapons
Free Zone Treaty. On September 5 Charge was called in to the
MFA by Americas Desk Chief Serdar Bashimov to discuss minor
issues, at which time Bashimov said Minister Meredov
definitely planned to meet with the Charge "soon." Charge
noted to Bashimov that Jackson-Vanik was up for review again
and that embassy had no choice but to recommend the waiver
not be extended based on lack of progress and -- now -- lack
of engagement. Hourly calls on September 6-7 to the Ministry
to set this appointment also proved fruitless.


3. (C) Charge plans to see Meredov at the September 7
Tajikistan National Day reception, at which point she will
tell him she has advised the Department to begin considering
not extending the waiver. She will tell him the embassy is
considering sending a diplomatic note formalizing this
recommendation.

Draft Diplomatic Note
--------------


4. Absent the Department's objections, embassy intends to
send the attached draft diplomatic note on September 8.

Begin draft diplomatic note:

"The Embassy of the United States of America presents its
compliments to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of
Turkmenistan and, referring to the Embassy's Diplomatic Note
No. 604/06 dated June 28, 2006 and the Ministry's Diplomatic
Note No. 09/3409 dated July 3, 2006, has the honor to inform
the Ministry that the Government of the United States is once
again reviewing Turkmenistan's waiver under the Jackson-Vanik
amendment. Lack of progress in addressing the outstanding
cases of exit denials the U.S. Embassy and other diplomatic
missions have raised with the Government of Turkmenistan; the
Ministry's own claim that there are no lists of citizens
prohibited from exiting the country; the lack of
clarification on the grounds for inclusion on lists of
individuals banned from travel outside Turkmenistan and means
of lifting such restrictions; and the unwillingness of the
Government of Turkmenistan to engage with the United States
and other states on these issues raise serious questions
about Turkmenistan's commitment to improve its performance in
promoting freedom of movement. Such progress is a
prerequisite for extension of the Jackson-Vanik waiver."

(Complimentary closing omitted.)

End draft diplomatic note.

Comment
--------------


5. (C) The decision not to engage with the United States, or
even the P-3, is the president's, not Meredov's. Following
the ref d Government of Turkmenistan deal with Gazprom,
Niyazov may feel that he no longer needs the United States as
leverage to get higher gas prices out of the Russians. He
may also be irritated that the United States is not being
represented by an ambassador for an extended period. Over
the years, Turkmenistan has indulged in brinkmanship on
Jackson-Vanik, typically doing the very minimum at the very
last minute to avoid canceling the extension. Jackson-Vanik
is one of the few sticks we have for dealing with
Turkmenistan and losing it carries considerable risk for the
future of the remaining programs the USG carries out in this
challenging environment. End Comment.
BRUSH