Afghan-Turkmen Relations: Mutually Beneficial

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ASHGABAT 000721

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL ENRG TX AF ETRD PGOV SOCI ZK
SUBJECT: Afghan-Turkmen Relations: Mutually Beneficial

Ref: Ashgabat 450

Summary
--------------


1. (SBU) During a July 6 meeting with PolOff, Afghanistan
Depuy Chief of Mission Rooz M. Noor discussed bilateral
trade, transport routes, political relations, future joint
projects and the general state of Turkmenistan-Afghanistan
bilateral relations. END SUMMARY

Afghan Trade with Turkmenistan
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2. (SBU) Turkmenistan-Afghanistan bilateral trade mostly
flows in one direction, namely energy products -- such as
liquefied gas, diesel, gasoline and gas-generated
electricity -- to Afghanistan. According to Noor,
Turkmenistan exported approximately $123 million worth of
goods from Turkmenistan, and imported only $32 million worth
of Afghan products in 2005. Afghanistan sells fruit,
licorice, spices and nuts to Turkmenistan. Noor pointed out
that this was only trade "on the official level" and that
there was significant lower-level economic interaction
between the two countries. Also, he mentioned that "there is
the desire to increase trade engagement with Turkmenistan,
however the cumbersome visa process makes it difficult for
Afghans to travel to Turkmenistan. On the other hand, our
embassy can issue a visa to any Turkmen willing to work in
Afghanistan in just one hour." Notably, last week
Afghanistan inked a new deal to purchase 100,000 tons of oil
from Turkmenistan.

Energy and Transportation Links
--------------


3. (SBU) Noor mentioned that shortly after the visit of
Afghan delegation headed by Afghanistan's Power and Water
Resources Minister (and former Governor of Herat) Muhammad
Ismail, Niyazov announced that Turkmenistan will write off
half of Afghanistan's current $8 million debt to
Turkmenistan as a gesture of goodwill. Furthermore, in
addition to selling Afghanistan electricity far below market
price, Niyazov recently said he wants to extend the current
electricity lines past Mazar-i-Sharif and Herat all the way
to Kabul. At the current price of $0.02/KWh, Turkmenistan's
potential annual revenue from Afghanistan could reach $9.8
million, based on a 490 MW Afghan import assumption
(reftel).


4. (SBU) Noor also discussed the proposed Trans-Afghan
pipeline with great enthusiasm, and said that Afghanistan,
"wants to realize the Trans-Afghan pipeline with U.S.
support and help" but with the caveat that "without [U.S.]
help the project is not possible to implement."


5. (SBU) There are only two routes connecting the countries
-- the unpaved Imamnazar-Andhoy road and a short road and
rail link between Serhetabad and Turghundi, which connects
to Herat. Noor expressed his belief that Kelif in the south-
eastearn part of Turkmenistan could be a "major gateway into
Afghanistan." He recalled that before the Soviet Union, the
city of Kelif (Keleft) was a major customs point. He cited
the advantages of Kelif as a transit point, including its
proximity to a railway line and bridge over the Amudarya
River near Islampinja in Afghanistan. (Note: Noor was a
governor of Jowzan province, where Kelif is located. End
note.) Kelif is also connected to the cities of Shibargan
and Mazar-i-Sharif.

Diplomatic and Political Relations
--------------


6. (SBU) Noor characterized bilateral relations as friendly,
saying that "Turkmenistan is our friendly neighbor and we
never had any conflicts with them." While Afghanistan has
an embassy in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan maintains an embassy in
Kabul and has consulates in both Mazar-i-Sharif and Herat,
which are holdovers from when the time of Taliban rule, when
Niyazov was attempting to maintain good relations with both
the Northern Alliance and the Taliban. Noor told PolOff

ASHGABAT 00000721 002 OF 003


that Turkmenistan's diplomatic missions mostly "monitor the
security situation" and provide technical assistance to the
Turkmen-Afghan power projects -- despite over 2 million
ethnic Turkmen living in Afghanistan.

Narcotics Traffic
--------------


7. (SBU) On the subject of narco-trafficking between the two
countries, Noor admitted that this was a problem, but
downplayed the severity. Noor admitted that there are
currently 64 Afghan citizens imprisoned in Turkmenistan for
drug-related charges, but that the trafficking was not that
bad, since "the authorities will imprison someone for just
having two or three grams of heroin" on them, and besides
"60kg was the largest" heroin seizure here.

Educational and Cultural Exchanges
--------------


8. (SBU) Like their economic relationship, educational and
cultural exchange is somewhat one-sided. There are
currently over 30 Afghan students studying in Ashgabat at
the university level on a program that is fully-funded by
the government of Turkmenistan. This is a sharp increase
from only a handful of slots two years ago, and Noor did not
know of one example of a Turkmenistani going to study in
Afghanistan. Furthermore, Turkmenistan regularly sends
technical advisors in the energy and electricity field to
assist with Afghanistan's power grid. Afghanistan is hoping
to stage its first cultural exchange later this year with a
planned trip by a musical ensemble for Turkmenistan's
October Independence Day celebrations.

Atmospherics
--------------


9. (SBU) Speaking a combination of antiquated Turkmen, Dari
and Turkish throughout the conversation, Noor was very
upbeat and lost no opportunity to express almost extreme
gratitude to the United States for its assistance in various
areas. As the former governor of Jowzjan province in
Afghanistan, he routinely met with and accompanied Americans
throughout his region, and had no shortage of anecdotes
about promoting U.S.-Afghan relations in this way.
Throughout the meeting, the television was tuned to Voice of
America television broadcast, but without the sound.

Future assessment of TX
--------------


10. (SBU) While Noor was resoundingly positive about future
prospects for Turkmenistan's economic development, he was
less so on the political side. He averred several times to
comment on the situation, making statements like, "we are in
favor of democracy everywhere," and "all people have a right
to be free," eventually settling on "Afghanistan respects
the neutrality policy of Turkmenistan and does not interfere
into the internal affairs of other countries." However,
when pressed, Noor said that there was the possibility that,
"the spark of democracy started in Afghanistan has the
potential to spread to Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan."

Comment
--------------


11. (SBU) The mutually beneficial nature of Turkmenistan's
relationship with Afghanistan is somewhat unusual, without
the normal litany of complains about lack of cooperation and
frustration with the government that other neighboring
countries have expressed. Yet despite the Turkmenistan's
favorable balance of trade, Niyazov's unusual generosity and
energy assistance seems driven by a long-standing concern
about the Afghans. Even during the Taliban regime, Niyazov
exerted extra efforts to have good relations with
Afghanistan, and was even more-actively encouraging the
Trans-Afghan pipeline at that time. His recent electricity
projects and energy agreements aside, more telling are both
the limited access points and the strict visa regime, which
although not unique, illustrates Turkmenistan's principle of
"good fences make good neighbors," and Niyazov's desire to

ASHGABAT 00000721 003 OF 003


actively curb any possible foreign influences whenever
possible.