AMBASSADOR,S FAREWELL CALL WITH NIYAZOV

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 ASHGABAT 000702

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

EUR/CACEN (RUBIN) AND SCA PDAS MANN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/05/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL TX PHUM ENRG PINS KDEM ZK
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR,S FAREWELL CALL WITH NIYAZOV

Classified By: CLASSIFIED BY AMB TRACEY JACOBSON FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND
D

Summary
--------------


1. (C) During an hour long farewell call with Ambassador, an
apparently healthy and engaged Niyazov:

-described plans for upcoming elections at all levels,
starting with village councils July 23 and leading up to
presidential elections in 2009;

-noted that he would maintain his chairmanship of the
People's Council (Halk Maslahaty) after presidential
elections, to ensure "unity;"

-confirmed that he will at some point re-institute a 10th
year of primary education, while insisting that further
education was pointless;

-criticized the "sneaky" Russians both for involvement in the
2002 coup attempt and underhanded deals with Ukraine to
continue to get Turkmenistani gas cheap;

-insisted that he would stand firm on his decision not to
sell gas for less than $100/tcm, which he believes the
Russians will eventually pay "once the weather starts to turn
cold in October."


2. (C) Despite the inevitable "classic Bashi" moments
(including a knee-jerk reaction at the mention of NGOs, and a
cringe-inducing dissertation on the foreign minister's
previous marital woes and drinking habits),Niyazov clearly
intended to have a positive farewell call. Although his
introductory comments on the need for democratic reform could
have been lifted from embassy talking points, it's clear that
he intends to keep his hand firmly on the tiller, and stifle
any attempts to expand civil society or real freedom of
expression. End Summary.


Happy Independence Day
--------------


3. (C) Niyazov, demonstrating his penchant for meetings
during holidays, invited Ambassador (accompanied by Pol/Mil
Chief as notetaker) for a farewell call July 4. He opened
the meeting by expressing full support for Ambassador's
published July 4 message (which the Ministry of Foreign
Affairs had asked the embassy to change to make "less
insulting" the day before, septel). He expressed his desire
for good relations with "your great nation," thanking
Ambassador for her efforts to improve the bilateral
relationship following the 2002 coup attempt, which he said
Russia had supported.


Our Lack of Democracy is the Soviet Union's Fault
-------------- --------------


4. (C) Responding to the Ambassador's statement that the
United States established its democracy 230 years ago and was
constantly striving to develop it, President Niyazov said
that he had a high appreciation for democratic institutions.
(Note: We've yet to see it here.) As the new century
continues he is trying to establish democratic institutions
in Turkmenistan, but the Turkmen people themselves have
little understanding of democratic development due to their
history -- a new mentality has to be developed before such
institutions could take root. He blamed this undemocratic
mentality on Turkmenistan's Soviet past; the Soviet Union saw
Turkmenistan only as a place to exploit mineral resources
without developing its human capital. Describing his own
experiences as an apparatchik in Moscow, he said that in 1985
the Chairman of the Soviet Cabinet of Ministers Tikhanov had
called him into his office and asked him where Turkmenistan
was located and what they did there. In Niyazov's words,
Soviet authorities never let the Turkmen decide any of their
own economic or social questions, sent in &foreign8, i.e.
Ukrainian, workers to run their gas and oil fields, and made
the republic's budget dependent on the decisions of the
Central Bank in Moscow. Even under Gorbachev he claimed that
Turkmen only received 10 percent of the income from their oil
and gas from Moscow and half of this was distributed as

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"useless" consumer goods. Therefore, according to Niyazov,
this system led to the creation of a silent population, which
was the main legacy of the Soviet Union in Turkmenistan.


5. (C) Several times during his exegesis Niyazov blamed
Turkmenistan's lack of democracy not only on its Soviet
legacy but on a Soviet &Old Guard8 he claimed he had to
root out and which he implied stymied his efforts to change
the country. In one instance he mentioned that
Turkmenistan's new generation graduating from its
universities would be ready to run the country's gas and oil
infrastructure, become entrepreneurs, etc., but that this
&Old Guard8 still existed and would make life difficult for
them. Speaking later about his (constant) removal of hakims
(governors) and other officials, Niyazov said they were
members of this &Old Guard8 who were invariably corrupt.


Upcoming Elections
--------------


6. (C) Ambassador queried Niyazov on plans for elections,
asking specifically whether the electoral system would allow
multiple candidates and candidates from different ethnic
groups. Niyazov answered positively saying that the schedule
for elections would remain as announced with village-level
council (gengeshi) elections in July, regional (welayet)
council elections in October 2006, welayet hakim (governor)
secret-ballot elections in October 2007, then parliamentary

SIPDIS
elections, and finally presidential elections in 2009.
Responding to another question, Niyazov claimed that he would
not bother with the local elections and that the electoral
commission and parliament would supervise these; further, he
was not interested in the work of village councils anymore
and no one from the center would interfere. Niyazov spoke
positively about the current parliament saying that it was
made up of mostly new persons and that few of them had Soviet
mindsets. Ambassador asked if elected governors would still
be subject to dismissal by the President. Niyazov clearly
stated that this would no longer happen; the electors would
then take care of removing governors if they did not perform
well.

Political Parties Will Not be Artificial
--------------


7. (C) Niyazov described how his programs had been designed
to provide rural citizens with the capital to have their own
cattle, goats, sheep, cars, farm implements, free gas, free
water, etc., and allow them to increase their wealth.
Mentioning how Turkmen trading entrepreneurs filled flights
to India, Dubai, and London, Niyazov said his main economic
goal was to create a domestic market which would increase
wealth throughout the country and create a class of
entrepreneurs, small businessmen, traders, minor
industrialists, and the like. This, in his opinion, would be
the part of society that would create and fund political
parties. Niyazov decried the &intellectual8 approach
towards democratization that he said took place in Russia.
He said that in Russia the intelligentsia had rushed towards
democratization with the French Revolution's rally cry of
"liberte, egalite, fraternite..." but they were disappointed.
This approach had instead produced the oligarchs of the
1990s who got into parliament and made laws to protect
themselves. Niyazov stated that Turkmenistan would develop
democracy more slowly and methodically. Per the ambassador's
questions as to how presidential candidates would be
nominated, Niyazov responded that there were a couple of
variants. One variant was for would-be candidates to gather
100,000 signatures. However the People's Council will have
the final approval over candidates, and will select between
two and five candidates to campaign. The party list process
was another variant, but Turkmenistan had only been
independent for 15 years and was not mature enough for this
sort of system.


Pay No Attention to the Man Behind the Curtain
-------------- -


8. (C) Ambassador asked whether Niyazov would remain Chairman
of the People's Council after the presidential elections in

2009. Niyazov gave an immediate and unqualified &yes8 to
the question and then launched into a soliloquy about the
negative aspects of Soviet succession struggles. Each Soviet

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leader denigrated and denounced the identity ("lichnost") of
his predecessor. Niyazov said that this was not good for a
transition of power or for society, and so he would stay on
to ensure an honest government and "unity" for the transition
period (i.e., &hands off my lichnost8). Further, in order
to prevent ethnic or inter-tribal strife, he was working hard
to increase national identity such as the study of ancient
Turkmen history. &I cannot control the whole process,8
said Niyazov, &but I can at least build a healthy
environment.8 Niyazov also volunteered that he knew that
many persons in Turkmenistan praised him, maybe excessively.
Then reflecting for a second he noted that he had done a lot
for the country so, &Spasebo.8


Education: What is it Good For?
--------------


9. (C) Moving to education, Ambassador asked Niyazov if he
would honor the pledge made to DAS Laura Kennedy 18 months
ago that in two years Turkmenistan would increase its
compulsory level of education from nine to 10 years. Niyazov
nodded yes and said that nine years of compulsory education
had only been a temporary decision. However he immediately
decried the Soviet educational system saying that 12 years of
compulsory education was a waste of time and much higher
education was even more of a waste. Harking back to the days
at his alma mater in Leningrad, he recounted how he had
studied for six years there only to not have the faintest
idea of how things were produced or how to work in a power
station. He learned more in six months on the job than
during his six years in the university. The Turkmen were
satisfied with their current educational system and they made
sure that schools of higher education did not have
superfluous subjects. Ambassador noted that while practical
experience was useful, another purpose of higher education
was to provide a person with the intellectual capacity to
reason and solve problems. At this Niyazov waved his hand
and signaled that the conversation should move on.


Gas Negotiations and the Crafty Russians
--------------


10. (C) Niyazov used the Russian word &khitri8 (crafty or
sly) at least a dozen times to describe Russia's negotiation
strategy with Turkmenistan over natural gas or to describe
Russian President Vladimir Putin himself. He acknowledged
that Turkmenistan was at fault for making the mistake long
ago of not getting a transit agreement for its natural gas
from the Russians. Then after describing the past year,s
gas negotiations with the Russians (septels),he offered his
bottom line - Turkmenistan demanded and expected to get U.S.
$100/tcm of natural gas from Russia. While Niyazov
acknowledged that Russia had yet to agree, he credited this
to the fact that it was still summer; come fall with lowering
temperatures, he said, they will come around. Niyazov said
if Turkmenistan receives $100/tcm from Russia, it will demand
the same from Iran in 2007. When Ambassador asked what he
would do with his gas if he stopped selling to Russia,
Niyazov responded "the Chinese will buy it." (Note: the
Chinese pipeline, theoretically planned for 2009, faces many
obstacles, including lack of information on reserves and lack
of approval from transit countries for its route. End Note.)


Security Cooperation and the War on Drugs
--------------


11. (C) Ambassador reviewed other facets of U.S. ) Turkmen
relations from her tour and thanked Niyazov for his support
on the Proliferation Security Initiative, the U.S. Air Force
Gas-and-Go operation at Ashgabat Airport, and cooperation
against the spread of narcotics. She noted that the United
States was ready to do even more with Turkmenistan and that
the next step regarding narcotics was to work on decreasing
demand amongst the youth; the embassy is ready to assist with
various programs to this end. Niyazov thanked the Ambassador
for her efforts in these fields but noted that although drug
use sometimes took place in Turkmenistan, its youth mostly
avoided drugs (Note: not from what we,ve seen). He then
said that Turkmenistan was openly fighting the war on drugs
and used a recent staged narcotics burn as one example of
their efforts. Niyazov also used this topic to again
castigate Russia for double-dealing, saying that

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approximately three years ago its special services had
learned of a large shipment of Afghan heroin and opium that
would transit Turkmenistan for Russia. The Turkmen informed
the Russian special services who asked that the shipment be
allowed to go through so that they could arrest the
distributors on their end. According to Niyazov this did not
happen, and the drugs wound up in Europe. Referring to the
Ambassador's upcoming posting in Tajikistan, Niyazov said
that she would see this more often as the Russians were
heavily involved in the drug trade there.


Knee-jerking on NGOs
--------------


12. (C) Ambassador noted that bilateral relations could not
just be restricted to security affairs and mentioned several
embassy education programs, including PEAKS (which was never
approved) and the recently-concluded international conference
for English teachers (which was not without its challenges,
septel). Ambassador expressed disappointment that in the
past year not one independent NGO had been registered in
Turkmenistan and that registration was extremely difficult.
She specifically asked as a personal favor to her and as a
farewell gift that President Niyazov authorize the
registration of the U.S. Exchange Alumni Association.
Niyazov initially said, "Let (Foreign Minister) Meredov take
care of it," but then warned the Ambassador not to create any
organizations that "paid people to take to the streets and
disrupt public order." Ambassador responded that the U.S.
Government never engaged in such matters and that the Alumni
Association was not a dangerous group. She emphasized that
U.S. Embassy Ashgabat assistance to NGOs and other
associations was limited to training and small grants to help
local people solve their problems together with local
authorities.


13. (C) Ambassador concluded with a request that the
government of Turkmenistan work cooperatively with the Charge
d'Affaires and her eventual successor. She also mentioned
that former Ambassador to Turkmenistan and current PDAS
Steven Mann would be in country next week and hoped to see
Niyazov on July 17. Niyazov demurred, citing an upcoming
weeklong trip he planned to make to the Caspian Sea and the
demands of the upcoming Wheat Holiday to mark the completion
of the harvest. After a brief discussion on her upcoming
assignment to Tajikistan, during which Niyazov characterized
the Tajiks as uneducated peasants, Ambassador returned to the
theme of Independence Day, stating that our nation had
learned that the only path to long term stability was to
build a democratic process.


Atmospherics
--------------


14. (C) As usual, Foreign Minister Meredov sat dutifully to
Niyazov's right and took copious notes during the meeting.
Despite the wide range of topics being discussed, Niyazov
found time to cheerfully insult his foreign minister and
discuss his personal affairs. Niyazov joked about Meredov's
divorce and how three years ago he forbid him to touch
alcohol because whenever he drank his nose turned red and his
speech became slurred. Niyazov went on to claim that
Meredov's father was a closet drinker. Finally, he noted
that during Soviet times, the KGB had recruited Meredov and
former, now imprisoned, Foreign Ministers Batyr Berdiev and
Boris Shikhmuradov when they had studied at the university in
Moscow. Niyazov then mumbled that, &this sort of thing did
not happen at my polytechnic in Leningrad.8 Meredov took
the remarks with a smile and an occasional nod of the head.


15. (C) Niyazov appeared to be in good health with no
mobility or flexibility problems when he moved. He showed no
signs of pain or fatigue; his complexion was fair and his
eyes clear. When he spoke it was with a firm and unwavering
voice and he made cogent, rational (for him) arguments even
if they were often bald-faced lies (e.g., drug use isn't a
problem in Turkmenistan.) He offered long soliloquies during
the meeting, usually to attack the Russians or their Soviet
predecessors, but these still were relatively focused and not
the rambling remarks we sometimes hear.


Comment

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--------------


16. (C) Despite his constant attacks against the former
Soviet Union and the Soviet legacies in Turkmenistan,
Niyazov's mindset remains that of a classic Homo Sovieticus,
and as was said of the Bourbons after the Congress of Vienna,
he has neither learned anything nor forgotten anything.
Clearly wanting to establish a positive tone from the outset,
Niyazov mouthed niceties about democratic procedures and
institutions on the American Day of Independence, but
simultaneously made it clear he has no intention of releasing
the reins of power. We expect that our efforts to promote
democratic and economic reform will remain enormously
challenging, but as the last three years have made clear,
persistent and patient engagement can produce some short-term
success stories, while simultaneously keeping the door open
for the exchange programs and civil society support necessary
for longer-term stability and prosperity.
JACOBSON