INDIA'S ENGAGEMENT IN TURKMENISTAN: CHALLENGES AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ASHGABAT 000659

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/CEN (LFRESE)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/22/2016
TAGS: KDEM PREL ETRD TX IN
SUBJECT: INDIA'S ENGAGEMENT IN TURKMENISTAN: CHALLENGES AND
OPPORTUNITIES


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Classified By: AMBASSADOR TRACEY ANN JACOBSON FOR REASONS 1.4 B and D

Summary
--------------


1. (C) SUMMARY: During two conversations with the new Indian
Deputy Chief of Mission in Turkmenistan, Binaya Srikanta
Pradahan on June 15 and June 21, PolOff discussed the
declining state of economic relations between India and
Turkmenistan, various educational, cultural and other
programs -- including a new allocation of $10 million for the
UN Democracy Fund -- in Turkmenistan, and Pradahan's general
views regarding Turkmenistan's government, educational and
economic situation.
END SUMMARY.

Faltering Business Relations
--------------


2. (C) Despite several initially-promising joint ventures
with Turkmenistan in recent years, notably in pharmaceuticals
and construction, economic relations between India and
Turkmenistan generally have fallen. This is clearly
reflected in the embassy's staffing reduction from one
political and one economic officer to a joint
political-economic officer who also acts as Deputy Chief of
Mission. The volume of India-Turkmenistan bilateral trade
was $145 million last year, but Pradahan predicts it will
likely be "slightly lower next year," as Indian partners of
joint ventures pull out.

India: Pessimistic About Trans-Afghan Pipeline
-------------- -


3. (C) Pradahan was surprisingly skeptical about the
possibility of a Trans-Afghan Pipeline, let alone the chances
of it extending further to India. He noted that the
discussions for this have been ongoing "for years," and that
despite numerous high level meetings "on all sides" there was
"still no action." He contended that the security situation
in Afghanistan was the primary stumbling block, because it
would be "difficult to convince major oil companies" to build
a pipeline in the current security environment. Nonetheless,
he said that Indian involvement in the project discussion
would "remain constant" because if it did get off the ground,
they would ultimately stand to benefit from it.

They Keep On Knockin', But They Can't Come In
--------------


4. (C) The Indian embassy gets "lots of queries" via the
Indian embassy website, according to Pradahan, and they
routinely provide contact information to both the relevant
Indian private businesses and Turkmenistani government
entities, but "there's never any answer" from the government.
Although India's business community has a huge capability to
provide technical assistance, especially in the
high-technology, industrial development, and other
specialized technical fields, there has been little
cooperation with Turkmenistan despite Indian efforts to
foster it.


5. (C) Additionally, overtures towards fostering new
economic cooperation or trade deals have also failed, largely
due to government inability to do business successfully.
"Business should be run by businessmen," according to
Pradahan, but "there are no businessmen in Turkmenistan --
only government workers." Citing frequent inquiries by
Indian firms working in the agricultural, cottaqe industry,
handicraft, and high technology industries looking for new
markets and partnerships despite numerous attempts by
individual firms and the embassy to initiate joint ventures
or partnerships, these have fallen flat due to lack of
response or interest on the part of Turkmenistan's officials.

Cultural Exchange: Hooray for Bollywood!
--------------


6. (C) India has true entr into the hearts and minds of the
Turkmenistani people when it comes to culture. Indian movies
are very popular here in Turkmenistan and available in the
bazaars for less than a dollar for a bootleg copy. (Note:
After President Niyazov abolished public cinemas in the
mid-1990s the common thing to do is buy VHS tapes or DVDs of
foreign movies and watch them at home. End note.) Pradahan
claimed their most successful cultural programming was

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traveling to the welayats and showing recent hit Bollywood
films to groups of 50 to100. The embassy does this mostly
via the MFA and the hakimliks (regional authorities),and
embassy officers are assigned a Ministry of Foreign affairs
handler for the duration of their trips.


7. (C) However, not all this exposure is good, and due to a
lack of other sources of information, many Turkmeistanis have
a very misguided impression of India. Pradahan noted that
many exchange program applicants are interested in visiting
India solely because they aspire to meet -- or even become --
Bollywood dancers or stars. For example, Pradahan told the
story of a female Turkmen applicant to an exchange program
who insistently and repeatedly asking him to arrange a
meeting for her with a very famous Indian film star, to which
he responded: "My wife has also asked me about arranging such
a meeting (with this actor) -- if I cannot arrange it for
her, what makes you think I can do so for you?"

Indian Exchanges and Technical Assistance
--------------


8. (C) India runs two educational exchange programs in
Turkmenistan, both of which send students from Turkmenistan
to higher educational institutions in India. The Indian
Education Technical Cooperation (or ITEC) program which
operates in almost 100 countries worldwide, has 30 dedicated
slots for Turkmenistan. Most of the students selected go to
an English language university or study computer technology,
but there is often direct pressure for GOTX and university
officials not to participate in this program. Pradahan shared
a recent example of a finalist selected for the ITEC program
being personally contacted by the dean of his university and
told "if you go to India you cannot come back to our
university." (Note: we often have the same problem. End
Note.) The second program, SCAAP, is focused on agriculture,
business and more technical subjects, but this program has
not been operating in Turkmenistan during the past year,
although Pradahan declined to say why. In addition, he noted
that the quality of
applicants has fallen sharply over the years. "Years ago in
university, there were several Turkmen students studying with
me, who were very good," he shared. "But today the situation
has changed," and they get only "Ruhnama-babies" who do not
have "complete educations" applying for their programs.
Although the ITEC program candidates "often don't qualify"
Pradahan conceded that "we have to send them anyway," in
order to meet the program's quota for Turkmenistan.


9. (C) India also supplies numerous technical advisors,
including experts in the fields of international trade,
hydrocarbon extraction, and agricultural science -- notably
cultivation of crops in the desert. However, Pradahan
expressed concern that their advisors often have a difficult
time working with some of the ministries.

New Indian Money Available for Democracy Projects
-------------- --------------


10. (C) Pradahan told PolOff about India's recent
contribution of $10 Million to the UN Democracy Fund, which
is to be allocated at the discretion of the Indian MFA. He
also asked the embassy for guidance in determining how to
spend these funds in Turkmenistan. The portion allocated to
Turkmenistan "depends upon how much we ask for." So far
there are no projects, since democracy funding is a brand new
project for the Indian Embassy in Turkmenistan, and they are
just starting to look into "what is feasible," stating the
need for "partners and groups" to carry out such projects.
(Note: PolOff forwarded Pradahan the Embassy Democracy
Commission guidelines and information as a starting point.
End Note.).

Comment
--------------


11. (C) Within the framework of the new South and Central
Asia Bureau and the recent historic improvement in United
State-India relations, there is a real opportunity to work in
concert to support civil society, democratization efforts and
educational exchanges. A diminished economic interest may
actually bolster cooperation by the world's largest democracy
and the United States in terms of pressuring the Government
of Turkmenistan to change its educational system and expand
opportunities for civil society and technical assistance that
directly benefits the people of Turkmenistan. We should

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provide as much help as possible to helping the Indians
formulate sound plans to distribute their newly-contributed
UN Democracy Fund money in ways that ensure good projects and
that actively contribute to the development of the
non-governmental and educational sectors. In the struggle to
provide the Turkmenistani populations with opportunities
outside the framework of Niyazovian isolationist and
repressive government s
tructures, India is a welcome ally. End Comment.

JACOBSON
JACOBSON