SCENESETTER FOR ASSISTANT SECRETARY BOUCHER FROM

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ASHGABAT 000228

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/AS BOUCHER, SCA/DAS GASTRIGHT, EUR/DAS BRYZA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/2016
TAGS: ECON ENRG EPET MARR PGOV PREL TX
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR ASSISTANT SECRETARY BOUCHER FROM
AMBASSADOR JACOBSON

REF: (A) ASHGABAT 44 (B) ASHGABAT 209

ASHGABAT 00000228 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: Ambassador Tracey Ann Jacobson, for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d)

Turkmenistan - Niyazov's Playground
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1. (C) Turkmenistan is a hydrocarbon rich, strategically
located dictatorship ruled by "President for Life" Saparmurat
Niyazov. The South and Central Asia Bureau has inherited the
eighth worst dictator in the world, according to "Parade"
magazine; the third most corrupt country in the world,
according to Transparency International; and a candidate for
the Countries of Particular Concern list maintained by the
U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom. Niyazov
maintains a cult of personality frequently compared to that
of North Korea's Kim Jung Il wherein he makes all the
important decisions regarding the country and tolerates no
dissent or freedom of expression. Niyazov maintains a
UN-blessed policy of neutrality which he uses to play
important players off each other including the United States,
Russia, China and Iran.


2. (C) U.S. policy in Turkmenistan is three-fold:

-- encourage democratic reform and respect for human rights,

-- encourage economic reform, growth of a market economy and
development of energy resources, and

-- promote security cooperation.

Niyazov barely pays lip service to democratic or economic
reform, is interested in maximizing his profits from his
hydrocarbon resources for his own personal projects, and
cooperates moderately well on security issues. He is 66
years old and has multiple health problems - though none of
them appear to be imminently life-threatening. He is likely
to remain in power through the foreseeable future, and with
no viable political opposition in-country or in exile,
succession scenarios are not optimistic. In addition to
encouraging those marginal improvements possible under the
current regime, embassy focuses on reaching the next
generation both through outreach programs around the country
and exchange programs, both of which are seriously
under-funded; Embassy Ashgabat receives less than one percent
of annual Freedom Support Act allocations. Though embassy
currently is right-sized, plans to eliminate our Diplomatic
Readiness Initiative (DRI) pol/econ officer would reduce our
pol/econ Foreign Service staff to one officer, seriously
limiting our ability to carry out our mission in this
challenging country. I ask your support in retaining this
position.

Human Rights Record Abysmal
--------------


3. (C) Turkmenistan remains a tempting target for increased
cooperation on energy and security but its abysmal human
rights record makes this cooperation problematic. Niyazov
uses any and all high-level contact with the United States to
augment his cult of personality and downplay USG criticism of
the complete lack of democracy and freedom of expression,
though embassy has been able to make small strides in
religious freedom. International media play up the more
comic aspects of Niyazov's despotism -- bans on gold teeth,
beards and lip-syncing, but the real effects are far more
sinister. His dumbing down of education is likely to succeed
in removing the seeds of any critical thinking that could

ASHGABAT 00000228 002.2 OF 003


lead to a political opposition, but more tragically also will
lead to at least one "lost generation" of Turkmenistani
citizens who will lack the intellectual tools to run anything
resembling a modern state. Niyazov's emollient pablum served
up in Ruhnamas I and II and concurrent poetry anthologies
increasingly is substituting for legitimate academic study.
Niyazov also systematically denies his people freedom of
movement, speech, press and assembly, and there is no hope in
sight that the people of Turkmenistan will be able to choose
their own leaders anytime soon. This is in spite of plans to
hold a series of local and national elections, leading up to
president elections in 2009, all of which he will closely
control and populate with loyal members of his Democratic
Party.

Gas Games
--------------


4. (C) The end of year Russian/Ukrainian gas standoff (ref
A) renewed USG and European interest in diversification of
Turkmenistan's gas pipelines, in the name of European energy
security. Niyazov cares about cash to feed his construction
frenzy and other personal projects and is likely to sell his
gas to the highest -- and most convenient -- bidder.
Russia's gas monolith GAZPROM has a clear advantage, as it
controls all of the currently available export pipelines
apart from a 8-12 billion cubic meter pipeline to Iran.
Niyazov has a healthy fear of Russia's ability to block or
otherwise thwart alternatives. Nevertheless, Niyazov
continues to entertain the ideas both of a Trans-Afghan (TAP)
and Trans-Caspian Pipeline (TCP) and seeks USG political and
financial support for both concepts. Whether his interest is
in actually developing the projects, or in using discussion
as a bargaining chip with Russia, remains unclear. Niyazov
also is actively courting the Chinese in the hopes of PRC
assistance in exploiting the reserves along the Amu Darya
River. The volume and quality of actual reserves, however,
remains a state secret and Niyazov even keeps the results of
the latest audit for the TAP-related reserve locked up in his
personal safe. In the case of the TCP, negotiations for a
similar project came to a bitter halt in 2000 when Niyazov
requested a $500 million "advance," ostensibly to cover loss
of revenues should GAZPROM cut him off. Our current goal is
to prevent the GOTX from signing a long term or high volume
deal with GAZPROM which would reduce interest in TAP/TCP.
Embassy intervention just prior to Niyazov's February 17
meeting with GAZPROM CEO Miller resulted in a two month
reprieve (ref B). Regardless of the eventual customer(s) for
Turkmenistan's gas, no one should be deluded into thinking
that these profits will better the people of Turkmenistan.
Oil and gas revenues are kept in an off-shore account that
Niyazov personally controls to finance his pet vanity
projects while health, education and infrastructure continue
to deteriorate.

Great Game
--------------


5. (S) As obscure and isolated as Turkmenistan is, it
continues to occupy a strategic location in the Global War on
Terrorism. Niyazov's UN-endorsed policy of "positive
neutrality" keeps Turkmenistan at arm's length from Russian
military encumbrances; Niyazov uses his minimal security
relationship with the United States to show his
"independence" from Moscow. Turkmenistan grants overflight
and refueling rights to USG aircraft in support of Operation
Enduring Freedom (OEF) in Afghanistan and greets every U.S.
VIP visitor with pledges of continuing security cooperation.
He would welcome a further deepening of this security
relationship by signing a divert agreement for use of Mary

ASHGABAT 00000228 003.2 OF 003


Air Base, but will not provide, nor should the United States
seek, agreement on anything in the way of basing rights. In
addition to OEF support, Turkmenistan also cooperates on a
modest exchange program with Nevada National Guard, mostly
focusing on disaster preparedness, and has marginal
participation in NATO, EUCOM and CENTCOM exchanges. In 2005
CENTCOM provided $5 million in counter narcotics funding for
the construction of border crossing stations on the Iranian
and Afghanistani borders and embassy hopes to continue to
working with CENTCOM on further Counter narcotics efforts,
optimally through coordination with other SCA embassies.

What the U.S. Can Do?
--------------


6. (C) The United States cannot give up on the people of
Turkmenistan, and must continue -- and even increase --
funding for critical civil society, education, health,
counter narcotics, border security and Muslim Outreach
programs. Retaining our second pol/econ officer slot to
report on these issues and implement our programs is
critical. As former EUR/DAS Kennedy told Niyazov during a
February 2005 visit, "your greatest resources are your
people, and not only are they ready for democracy now,
they've been ready for a long time." EUR/DAS Bryza
reinforced this message during his January meeting with the
president and further linked progress on human rights and
religious freedom with USG cooperation on energy. As SCA
prepares for introductory visits to Turkmenistan, it should
keep pressure on Niyazov to make political and economic
reforms in addition to cooperation in security and energy.


7. (U) Embassy Ashgabat looks forward to working together
with its new and old colleagues in SCA to promote democracy,
economic development, and stability in this critical region.
JACOBSON