Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06ASHGABAT1323
2006-12-29 14:18:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Ashgabat
Cable title:  

TURKMENISTAN SURVIVES A WEEK WITHOUT NIYAZOV

Tags:  PGOV PINR PREL RS TX US 
pdf how-to read a cable
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PP RUEHDBU
DE RUEHAH #1323/01 3631418
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 291418Z DEC 06
FM AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8174
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHTA/AMEMBASSY ASTANA PRIORITY 0023
RUEHEK/AMEMBASSY BISHKEK PRIORITY 2881
RUEHLM/AMEMBASSY COLOMBO PRIORITY 0063
RUEHKA/AMEMBASSY DHAKA PRIORITY 0096
RUEHDBU/AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE PRIORITY 0043
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD PRIORITY 1738
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 0482
RUEHKT/AMEMBASSY KATHMANDU PRIORITY 0044
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 0537
RUEHNT/AMEMBASSY TASHKENT PRIORITY 5003
RUEHKP/AMCONSUL KARACHI PRIORITY 0055
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC//DHO-2/REA/NMJIC-J2// PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC//J5/RUE// PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ASHGABAT 001323 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN (PERRY)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/28/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL RS TX US
SUBJECT: TURKMENISTAN SURVIVES A WEEK WITHOUT NIYAZOV

REF: A. (A) ASHGABAT 1289

B. (B) ASHGABAT 1292

C. (C) ASHGABAT 1295

D. (D) ASHGABAT 1303

E. (E) ASHGABAT 1311

F. (F) ASHGABAT 1312

G. (G) ASHGABAT 1313

ASHGABAT 00001323 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i. Jennifer L. Brush for reasons
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ASHGABAT 001323

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN (PERRY)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/28/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL RS TX US
SUBJECT: TURKMENISTAN SURVIVES A WEEK WITHOUT NIYAZOV

REF: A. (A) ASHGABAT 1289

B. (B) ASHGABAT 1292

C. (C) ASHGABAT 1295

D. (D) ASHGABAT 1303

E. (E) ASHGABAT 1311

F. (F) ASHGABAT 1312

G. (G) ASHGABAT 1313

ASHGABAT 00001323 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i. Jennifer L. Brush for reasons 1.
4 (B) and (D).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Turkmenistan's first week of independence without
Niyazov was eerily calm. After saying farewell to their
first president with pomp and respect, the remaining powers
in Turkmenistan's government rallied around Interim President
Gurbanguly Berdimuhammedov, even providing a
well-intentioned, though implausible, show of nominating
additional candidates for the February 11 presidential
elections at the December 26 session of the Halk Maslahaty
(People's Council). The new government's first bold act was
to publicly condemn the Russian media for "provoking" the
public (septel). As heads of mission stopped by the embassy
to sign President Ford's condolences book, almost all asked
Charge what the USG's next steps would be. Friendly missions
agreed that we should avoid criticism of the upcoming
elections, in spite of their flaws, and focus on giving the
new administration a positive sign of the desire for change
and increased cooperation. All also agreed that
Berdimuhammedov already is sharing power, in the first
instance with Foreign Minister Meredov and Minister of
Defense Mammetgeldiyev. End Summary.

The Funeral, Halk Maslahaty, and the Streets of Ashgabat
-------------- --------------


2. (C) Post again expresses its appreciation for the
participation of A/S Boucher in the funeral events.
Government, ordinary members of the public and friendly
missions continue to comment on the positive signal A/S
Boucher's participation and message provided to the people of
Turkmenistan and to the region. The Turks, Georgians and
Ukrainians, on the other hand, noted their bitter
disappointment that not a single significant West European

representative attended; the Germans and French barely
succeeding in recalling their resident ambassadors from
leave. As one ambassador from the Caucasus noted to Charge,
"just stupid, that's all." During the funeral and at the
Halk Maslahaty, heads of mission chewed over how to
demonstrate to the new government the need for positive
change, while acknowledging the government's priority on
maintaining stability and the status quo.


3. (C) Though much of the diplomatic corps winced throughout
the elaborate nominating process at the Halk Maslahaty, which
was obviously staged for our consumption, friendly missions
reinforced each other's consensus that it was unproductive to
be overly critical of the proceedings. Acknowledging
Turkmenistan's complete lack of democratic experience and
historic isolation from the rest of the world, the
like-minded diplomats concurred that the process was a
well-intentioned, though unconvincing, attempt to give a
positive signal to the west. In the end, we agreed we should
concentrate on building a relationship with Interim President
Berdimuhammedov and welcome the elections.


4. (C) The Halk Maslahaty seems to have had a calming
influence on the street as well. According to embassy's
conversations with neighbors, vendors and average citizens,
the event was widely watched and the emergence of
Berdimuhammedov as a "unanimous" nominee was more an

ASHGABAT 00001323 002.2 OF 003


emolliant than an irritant. Berdimuhammedov's promises to
pay salaries on time, double salaries in 2008 and guarantee
free utilities are welcome. Likewise, locals notice that
there have been no price increases in the markets, an
exception to earlier practice when prices were raised
immediately before the New Year. Democratic Party Chairman
Musaev's emotional speech at the Halk Maslahaty praising
Berdimuhammedov for keeping law and order and preventing
chaos were also targeted at the average citizen's fear of an
unstable future. Part of Niyazov's social contract -- and a
pillar of neutality -- was to keep Turkmenistan safe from
unrest and foreign interference. Locals were horrified by
the 2005 events in Andijon, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan's civil
war remains recent memory, Chechnya is not far away, and
Turkmenistan has had Afghanistan's turmoil on its border for
decades.

Rebuking Russia
--------------


5. (C) Foreign Minister Meredov's public rebuke of Russia at
the December 28 joint session of the National Security
Council and Council of Ministers also sent a clear signal
that the new administration would not tolerate foreign
intervention. As reported septel, the Russian media has been
feeding the public a variety of lurid rumors ranging from
declaring Berdimuhammedov Niyazov's bastard child, to
implicating the United States in Niyazov's death, to stating
that Defense Minister Mammetgeldiyev was under arrest, to
reporting "Russian pundits'" opinions that a coup or civil
war was imminent, to ridiculing the nominations procedure.



Meredov
--------------


6. (C) Foreign Minister Meredov arrived early in the morning
December 29 to sign the condolence book for late President
Ford. Though Meredov typically attends these events, Charge
was pleasantly surprised he took the time to come on this
occasion. Charge thanked Meredov for his strong statement on
Russian media, saying much of the disinformation also was
intended to discredit the United States. Meredov asked
Charge to convey his government's appreciation for A/S
Boucher's attendance at the funeral and his message of hopes
for a new beginning. Meredov said that both he and Interim
President Berdimuhammedov would have welcomed the opportunity
to meet with A/S Boucher, but the decision had been made to
not conduct any bilateral meetings during the funeral.
Charge thanked Meredov for the government's efforts to host
the U.S. delegation during the funeral and noted our interest
in following up on A/S Boucher's message, specifically with a
visit by DAS Feigenbaum the week of January 8, followed a
visit by PDAS Mann the following week. In response to
Charge's question, Meredov said the government would give
serious consideration to arranging meetings with the Interim
President during these visits. Charge also noted the
outstanding request for a response to the USG's demarche on
grave concerns over human rights in Turkmenistan and Meredov
agreed to meet with her "soon." (Comment: Probably the
fifth time Meredov has promised Charge this meeting. End
Comment.)

Condolences
--------------


7. (C) As heads of mission visited the embassy to sign the
condolence book for late President Ford, a number of friendly
missions (UK, Georgia, Turkey, France, Germany, Saudi Arabia,
Ukraine, Romania, India, Pakistan and Japan) encouraged the
U.S. to follow up on A/S Boucher's well-received message of a
"new relationship" with high-level visits to Turkmenistan.

ASHGABAT 00001323 003.2 OF 003


Georgia, Ukraine and Turkey also noted their profound
disappoint with the poor showing by the West Europeans,
thereby increasing their appeal to the USG to play a pivotal,
though not overly critical, role in communicating with the
new government. Friendly missions agreed that Meredov's
broadside to Russia was a positive sign, and that they were
hopeful the new government would send out positive signals it
was ready for gradual change. The Georgian in particular
noted that he hoped a gesture to Azerbaijani President Aliyev
would be forthcoming. but said a meeting of the minds between
Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan was anathema to Russia. The
Central Asians mostly were curious about what the United
States would do next, and most expressed their hope for
better relations with Turkmenistan. Russian Ambassador
Blatov, who, unlike his predecessor, typically goes out of
his way to avoid conversations with Charge, during visit to
the embassy explicitely requested a meeting to "discuss
events."

Power-Sharing
--------------


8. (C) The Diplomatic Corps generally agree that Meredov's
and Mammetgeldiyev's stars have risen and that these are
positive signs. The international press has commented
extensively on "power vacuums" and "power plays." The
current constellation appears to consist of the
interdependent Berdimuhammedov/Meredov/Mammetgeldiyev troika,
none of whom can rule without the others' support.


Comment
--------------


9. (C) Embassy concurs with the consensus for caution,
patience and respect for Turkmenistan's fear for its
stability. During the leadup to the elections, embassy has
notified the government it plans to visit all five welayats
and meet with all the candidates. In the meantime embassy
welcomes the Department's proposal to send DAS Feigenbaum and
PDAS Mann to Turkmenistan during successive weeks and also
welcomes a visit by an interagency team to discuss
Turkmenistan's assistance/cooperation priorities. Our
message should be positive and hopeful, yet clear in our
expectations. Though in the past Berdimuhammedov has not
shown evidence of democratic leanings, the elaborate
nomination procedure, ascent of Meredov and positive
reception of A/S Boucher's message requesting a new
relationship all constitute a real opportunity for the USG to
help Turkmenistan along the road to democracy, prosperity and
security. End Comment.
BRUSH