DEATH OF NIYAZOV SITREP 004: 12/26/2006

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ASHGABAT 001303

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/26/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV TX US
SUBJECT: DEATH OF NIYAZOV SITREP 004: 12/26/2006

REF: A. ASHGABAT 1295

B. ASHGABAT 1292

C. ASHGABAT 1289

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. Jennifer L. Brush for reasons 1.4
(B) and (D).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Interim President Berdimuhammedov, for all intents
and purposes, was elected president at the December 26
session of the People's Council. The actual election is
February 11, but his competition of five low-level unknown
bureaucrats is a joke, and Berdimuhammedov had to "fight
back" the council's desire to elect him then and there,
saying "the world is watching us, let's follow our laws."
Turkmenistan remains quiet throughout the December 24 funeral
of President Niyazov and the December 26 meeting of the
People's Council. Amid a heavier than usual police presence,
Turkmenistan's citizens go on with their lives, though many
have expressed fear over the prospects for future stability.
Turkmenistan's institutions are functioning and
Berdimuhammedov is trying to build public support by
promising to pay salaries on time, double wages in 2008 and
guarantee free utilities through 2030. While there continue
to be rumors of political maneuvering, Parliamentary speaker
Atayev remains the only confirmed victim to date. Regional
leaders turned out for the president's funeral, though
European leaders -- including Putin -- ignored the
activities. A/S Boucher's presence was very well received
and he was able to deliver the U.S. message of hope for a new
relationship. End Summary.

People's Council Meeting: Berdimuhammedov Nominated
"Unanimously;" Election Set for February 11
--------------


2. (U) During a December 26 session of the Halk Maslahaty
(People's Council),the body empowered to set the date of
elections and change the constitution, members agreed to hold
presidential elections February 11. They also reportedly
made the necessary changes to the constitution and the
election law to clear the way for Berdimuhammedov's election.
After four hours of "nominations" from the regions and a
laborious, predictable and repetitive process of counting
yeas, nays and abstentions for each nominee, the Democratic
Party Chairman gave an impassioned speech in favor of
Berdimuhammedov and, after unimamous approval of the
nomination, Elections Commission Chief Garriyev begged the
council to declare Berimuhammedov president on the spot.
"No," Berdimuhammedov insisted, "the world is watching us,
let's go through with our elections." In addition to
Berdimuhammedov's unanimous nomination, five other candidates
barely received the 2/3's votes required to be nominated.
The "competition" consists of five low-level unknown local
politicians ranging from Mayor of Turkmenbashy, to Deputy
Minister of Oil, to Governer of Owadan District, to Deputy
Governor of Dashoguz Province. Garriyev, the Chairman of the
Election Commission, announced that "Our goal, our desire is
to have Berdimuhammedov elected." Post will report in more
detail septel.

Atmosphere Quiet as Police Presence Increases Exponentially
--------------


3. (C) Ashgabat has remained quiet the last three days; the
police presence on the streets increased exponentially on
December 23 in preparation for the funeral services and the
arrival of a number of high-level heads of state/government.
Most restaurants, stores and markets were closed December 24
and most streets in downtown Ashgabat were blocked off to
normal traffic in order to promote a smoother flow of traffic
by funeral participants. Although streets and many markets
reopened December 25, police presence remained heavier than
usual -- likely because of the meeting of the Halk Maslahaty
(People's Council) on December 26. People have been going on
with their daily lives -- buying food, working, going to
school -- but the mood is somber and apprehensive, and there

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has been little joking or good cheer that normally is present
in the run-up to the New Year's holiday. A number of
contacts here have expressed fear over the future and a wish
that the political situation will improve -- or, at least,
remain stable and without political maneuvering. Prices have
not risen as they normally do prior to the New Year's
holiday; the super-cheap subsidized "bricks" have disappeared
once again from state bread stores, though the slightly more
expensive flat bread remains available. Gas and Go reports
that the airport is functioning normally. Given reports that
all is quiet in the provinces, Peace Corps volunteers slowly
are being sent back out to the field: T-14 volunteers
departed Ashgabat December 26, and the newly sworn-in T-15
volunteers will be sent out December 27 and 28. The embassy
is continuing to function normally and to offer the full
range of consular services.

Parliament Elects a New Speaker
--------------


4. (C) The state-run media focused December 23 on an
extraordinary session of the Mejlis (Parliament),in which
the body's Speaker, Owezgeldi Atayev, was excoriated and his
alleged "crimes" were spelled out to Mejlis members, who
unanimously approved a decision removing him from office.
Specifically, Atayev was accused of abuse of office, grossly
violating citizens' constitutional rights, and fomenting
ethnic unrest by opposing a marriage between his adopted son,
an ethnic Teke, to a member of the Nohur tribe, causing the
girl to attempt suicide. Atayev's successor, Akja
Nurberdiyeva, is a former deputy speaker. An embassy
employee who knew Nurberdiyeva before she became a
parliamentarian notes that Nurberdiyeva helped in the past
with a number of grants related to orphanages, troubled
teenagers, pensioners and other marginalized groups, and put
much time into her work. The employee also characterized her
as quite progressive and positive. She has two children, is
around the same age as Acting President Gurbanguly
Berdimuhammedov, and has been married twice.


5. (C) At a meeting of the Council of Ministers late on
December 23, Berdimuhammedov formally vacated his position as
Minister of Health and the Pharmaceutical Industry; he was
replaced by Basim Sopiev. (Comment: USAID has had an
excellent working relationship with Sopiev. End Comment.)
The Council of Ministers also emphasized that domestic and
foreign policy would continue the same direction. A contact
at the Turkish construction company, Gap Inshaat, a major
beneficiary of Niyazov's building projects, told Charge that
one of Niyazov's last expressed wishes was for construction
to continue on "his" projects; construction on
already-contracted buildings remained on-going, with no work
stoppages during the mourning period. However, no new
building had been commissioned. Turkmenistan's newspapers
continue to run above-the-fold front-page pictures of
Niyazov, rather than Berdimuhammedov.


6. (C) There continue to be rumors of a political split,
with Minister of Defense Agageldi Mammetgeldiyev having
thrown his support, at least initially, behind Mejlis Speaker
Atayev. However, Mammetgeldiyev's presence with the rest of
the Council of Ministers at the December 26 session of the
Halk Maslahaty (People's Council) belied reports in the
opposition press that he had been arrested.

Funeral Activities and A/S Boucher's Visit
--------------


7. (SBU) The focus of the embassy -- and the state-run media
-- shifted on December 23 to preparations for the upcoming
funeral activities. MFA reportedly was cast into confusion,
as it sought to figure out how to work visits by dozens of
high-level delegations. Central Asian presidents Rahmonov
(Tajikistan) and Nazarbayev (Kazakhstan),Afghanistani
president Karzai, Ukrainian Prime Minister Yanukovich,
Pakistani Prime Minister Aziz and Prime Minister Fradkov of
the Russian Federation, and PRC State Councilor Tang Jiaxuan
were among those who attended. Turkish Prime Minister
Erdogan led a delegation of nearly 200. Iranian President

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Ahmadinejad sent first Vice President Parviz Davoudi and
Foreign Minister Mottaki to Ashgabat for the ceremonies.


8. (SBU) Assistant Secretary Boucher arrived safely and was
met upon his arrival by Turkmenistan's Agriculture Minister,
Esenmurat Orazgeldiyev, and the chief of the Ministry of
Foreign Affairs' Americas Section, Serdar Bashimov. Although
the A/S did not meet separately with either Berdimuhammedov
or Foreign Minister Reshit Meredov -- the embassy was told
immediately prior to the Assistant Secretary's arrival that a
decision had been made to deny meetings to all foreign
dignitaries -- the Assistant Secretary delivered the U.S.
message while offering condolences to Berdimuhammedov; he
also met with presidents Rahmonov and Karzai, and prime
ministers Aziz and Erdogan. Readouts of the funeral
activities and Boucher's discussions will follow septel. The
Assistant Secretary also met with newly sworn-in Peace Corps
volunteers and held a 25-minute press conference. Embassy is
grateful for A/S Boucher's participation and for the clear
message he delivered that the USG is ready for a new
relationship with Turkmenistan.


9. (U) Reaction in the state-run Turkmenistan press has been
largely factual, although television coverage of A/S
Boucher's visit stated that he expressed the "deep grief of
the American people." Regional media coverage was largely
favorable, though there was some confusion whether Boucher
had a separate meeting with Berdimuhammedov. Russian's black
media machine has been busy churning out reports that the
U.S. murdered Niyazov, was planning to stage another color
revolution in Turkmenistan, and hoped to use Niyazov's death
to strenghten its position in Turkmenistan. Post will offer
detailed media reaction septel.

BRUSH