NIYAZOV DEATH SITREP 002: 12/22/2006

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ASHGABAT 001295

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN, NSC FOR DAVID MERKEL, DS/IP/SCA AND DS/DSS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/22/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV ASEC CASC TX
SUBJECT: NIYAZOV DEATH SITREP 002: 12/22/2006

REF: A. (A) ASHGABAT 1289

B. (B) ASHGABAT 1292

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. Jennifer L. Brush for reasons 1.4
(B) and (D).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) During a December 22 meeting of the Emergency Action
Committee, post reviewed drawdown tripwires and agreed that
there was no need to consider drawdown at this time. The
political situation remains stable, with governmental offices
continuing to function. Funeral events will begin 9:00 am
December 24; the funeral itself will take place at the Gypjak
mausoleum where Niyazov's parents and siblings are buried.
The Uzbekistani DCM told Charge that Karimov, who "between us
has heart problems too," is no longer coming to the funeral;
instead President of Parliament Halilov will attend. The
situation in the capital remains quiet; all embassy Americans
are accounted for and in Ashgabat, and will continue to
exercise caution as they move around the city. The embassy
is continuing business as usual, including a full range of
consular services and has sent a warden message. There are
rumors of a cash run at the foreign bank at which most
citizens keep private accounts, but all other banks are open
and functioning normally. We are seeing no signs of hoarding
and, in fact, there seems to be plenty of bread in the state
bread stores, for the first time in months. The airport
remains open, though the authorities have announced that they
will cease issuing visas at the airport to passengers
arriving only with Letters of Introduction (visitors arriving
with valid visas will still be allowed to enter the country).
Parts of the border apparently are fully sealed and parts
sealed to outgoing traffic. End Summary.

EAC Review of Drawdown Tripwires: None Triggered
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2. (C) Post's Emergency Action Committee (EAC) met again at

1100. The EAC discussed the tripwires listed under "Growing
Potential for Drawdown" regarding the "Incapacitation, death,
or removal of President Niyazov." The EAC determined that
three of the tripwires had not/not been triggered:

-- Perception of U.S. responsibility in the president's
demise;

-- Decrease in the effectiveness of Government of
Turkmenistan security organs; and

-- Disruption of air travel out of Turkmenistan.

The EAC determined that it was too early to call the status
of the the two other tripwires:

-- Conflict between government structures for control of the
country and/or a power vacuum, and

-- Ascendancy into power of strongly anti-American
individuals or factions.

Post will continue to conduct periodic reviews as necessary.

Political Situation: Government Institutions Functioning
-------------- --------------


3. (C) The political situation here remains stable. On
December 21 the National Security Council, Cabinet of
Ministers and Mejlis (Parliament) issued an announcement
stating that the government would continue to promote
Niyazov's foreign and domestic policies, and called on the
people of Turkmenistan to be patient and courageous. Acting
President Berdimuhammedov has started issuing decisions as
"Interim President of Turkmenistan, Commander-in-Chief of the
Armed Forces, and Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of
Ministers;" these include authorization for the Halk
Maslahaty (People's Council) to meet at 3:00 pm December 26,

ASHGABAT 00001295 002 OF 003


and a three-day lying-in-state at the Presidential Palace.
The final ceremony at the palace will begin at 0900 December
24, followed by a 1200 funeral at the Gypjak mausoleum. The
Uzbekistani DCM told Charge that, contrary to earlier
reports, President Karimov, who "between us has heart
problems too" will not attend the funeral; Parliament
President Halilov will attend in his stead. The Mejlis
(Parliament) of Turkmenistan met today, but none of its
decisions have yet been made public.

Atmosphere: Quiet, with Business as Usual
--------------


4. (C) The situation in and around the capital remains quiet
amid a heavy police presence. All embassy Americans,
including a team that went out to the Iranian border
yesterday for the official turnover of the Altyn Asyr
checkpoint, have returned to Ashgabat; they reported that
police at checkpoints outside the city were more pleasant
than usual. Peace Corps volunteers will be kept in Ashgabat
until after December 26. Embassy is continuing with business
as usual and is maintaining full consular services, but staff
are exercising caution and not going out at night. A warden
message has gone out to all registered Americans in
Turkmenistan; however, many have already left the country for
the holidays. Many restaurants have closed for seven days.
A number of non-ethnic citizens of Turkmenistan worry about
their status under Berdimuhammedov or any other nationalist
Turkmen president.


5. (C) All prisons have been closed to visitors. The World
Bank representative here has reported a cash run at the
Turkmen-Turkish bank, the bank at which many citizens keep
private accounts, which is rumored to be closed today. Other
state-owned banks and the Pakistan National Bank, which is
where most companies keep their accounts, remain open.
Unofficial dollar exchange rates are remaining largely
constant. On December 21 there were longer-than-usual lines
at gas stations, as citizens sought to buy gas as a hedge
against possible price increases, however, gas lines were
back to normal by December 22. Likewise, the markets were
unusually crowded on December 21, with people stockpiling
food in the expectation that the markets would close and/or
prices would be raised. The markets were open, however, on
December 22 but business was slow. Two embassy staff who
live close to state bread stores reported that, for the first
time in months, there appeared to be plenty of bread --
including the cheap state-subsidized "bricks."

Airport Remains Open, But Cancels Airport Visa Service
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6. (C) The airport remains open, and most flights departed
on time or only somewhat late on December 21. Ref b reports
that citizens of Turkmenistan would not be permitted to enter
or leave Turkmenistan until after the funeral are inaccurate;
embassy personnel at the international airport reported
seeing many local travelers. However, MFA has called
embassies to inform them that, while individuals arriving
with valid visas will be permitted to enter over the coming
days, Turkmenistan will suspend the practice until further
notice of issuing visas at the airport to individuals who
arrive with valid Letters of Introduction. Lufthansa
announced that it will suspend its December 24 flight. MFA
has separate visa procedures for official delegations
attending the funeral.


7. (C) Embassy Tashkent informed embassy that parts of the
Uzbekistani-Turkmenistani border were completely sealed to
outgoing and incoming traffic. Embassy learned that the
border crossing at Farap is open only to incoming traffic.


Press Reaction: Mostly Moderate and Non-Alarmist
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8. (C) Turkmenistan's newspapers, all state-controlled, are
focusing on extolling Niyazov, and publishing directives and

ASHGABAT 00001295 003.2 OF 003


condolence notes. Russian press has been largely
constructive, moderate and focused on the need for a
transition consistent with the rule of law. However, there
have been some articles that have noted that Niyazov's death
provided a window of opportunity which the United States
might exploit in an effort to establish a foothold in Central
Asia.
Future Sitreps
--------------


9. (U) Embassy is working on septel containing suggestions
for an incentives package for the new administration, and
then will focus on preparing for the funeral. The next
sitrep will be no earlier than December 24, assuming the
country remains calm.
BRUSH