INTER-ISLAND TENSION FLARES ANEW IN THE COMOROS

UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 001410

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/FO, AF/E
PARIS FOR D'ELIA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM CN
SUBJECT: INTER-ISLAND TENSION FLARES ANEW IN THE COMOROS

REF: ANTANANARIVO 1307


1. (SBU) The tension between the Union and Island governments of
the Union of the Comoros is mounting in the run-up to Island
presidential elections anticipated for March 2007. Union President
Sambi met in Moroni the week of December 11 with the three Island
Presidents to implement agreements delineating Island versus Union
competencies in three areas: justice, management of public
corporations and internal security. While reaching broad agreement
on the first two issues, the two sides angrily broke off discussion
December 15 over the issue of security, with the main sticking point
being the types of weapons that Island security forces would be
allowed to carry and use. Anjouan Island President Bacar, who is
known for his secessionist talk and tense relationship with Union
President Sambi (reftel),particularly resisted the call to hand
over his security forces' weapons arguing that Union forces are
unable to ensure Anjouan's security.


2. (SBU) According to the French Charge in the Comoros, this
conflict reached a head December 18 when Union President Sambi
commandeered a commercial Comoros Aviation flight to send a
contingent of 30 soldiers of the Armee National du Developpement
(AND) to enhance the Union security presence on the island of
Anjouan. It is apparently within Sambi's legal rights to do so, but
this was a step that no previous Union President had been willing to
try. Learning of this plan, Anjouan gendarmes went to the airport
and notified the flight that it would be denied permission to land.
A detachment of 20 to 30 Union soldiers already on the ground in
Anjouan had gone to the airport to welcome the aircraft; they
departed peacefully when the Anjouan gendarmes asked them to leave.
Rather than escalate the conflict, Sambi apparently ordered the AND
troops off of the flight, and the aircraft proceeded to Anjouan
carrying only civilians and then continued on to Mayotte.


3. (U) At the moment, the situation in Anjouan is calm, and the
airport remains open. While talk of secession is ever-present in
Anjouan politics, contacts in Anjouan have heard no such public
comments related to this morning's events. Some contacts depicted
the morning's events as a "misunderstanding" that is currently under
negotiation, as Anjouan authorities were not informed of the
airplane's arrival ahead of time. Still, the Union Government is
setting up a crisis committee, which will likely be led by the
Minister of Defense, who also serves as Sambi's Chief of Cabinet.


4. (SBU) COMMENT: In our conversations with the political
leadership in the Comoros - both the Union and Island varieties - we
have stressed that a cooperative way forward is essential to address
the fundamental problems of the people. These problems are almost
entirely economic - a lack of social services, a lack of jobs, a
lack of growth prospects. However, as long as these inter-island
political problems persist, their ability to address the economic
problems will be hampered, as will the foreign donors' ability to
assist the Comoran people. Our impression is that Sambi understands
this and wants to improve the lot of the people of the Comoros. The
Island Presidents make some valid points, but they generally appear
most interested in preserving their personal power and prerogatives.
This is unlikely to be the last Union/Island conflict in the run-up
to the Island elections slated for the first half of 2007. END
COMMENT.

MCGEE