OPPOSITION COMPLAINS; PRESIDENT FETES 57 YEARS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 001398

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO, INR/AA, AND DRL
PARIS FOR D'ELIA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PHUM PINR MA
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION COMPLAINS; PRESIDENT FETES 57 YEARS

REF: A) ANTANANARIVO 1380 AND PREVIOUS

B) ANTANANARIVO 1389

ANTANANARI 00001398 001.2 OF 002



1. (SBU) SUMMARY: With election documents received from all but two
out of 116 regional offices, the High Constitutional Court (HCC) is
steadily certifying the results from the December 3 presidential
election. The High Court office in central Antananarivo remains
open to candidates, journalists, and observers; however intermediate
results during the count are not released. At the same time the HCC
considers complaints by candidates; it rejected Roland Ratsiraka's
claims of fraud December 12. With renegade General Fidy's arrest
(ref B),any candidates who might still be considering extralegal
action must assess their options carefully. Both the limited
Embassy observers' totals and the National Democratic Institute's
(NDI) parallel count confirmed the unofficial result that
Ravalomanana won well over 50 percent of the vote (protect, not/not
for public dissemination). END SUMMARY.

HCC Certification Expected in December - But When?
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2. (SBU) As of midday December 14, the HCC is only missing the
affidavits and ballot documents of Befotaka and Morafenobe out of
116 regional offices. Legally the HCC has 20 days to certify the
election results, but the clock only starts once all of the
documents have been received. As a practical matter, however, we
expect the HCC to certify within the week, and certainly before
Christmas - although the court officials are studiously avoiding
making any promises. To have collected these materials from over
17,000 polling stations across Madagascar is an impressive feat made
possible only with South African-provided air assets. In a
statement December 13, Prime Minister Jacques Sylla called for a
"political truce" over the holidays so the Malagasy could celebrate
in calm.

We Ran, We Lost, We Want a Do-Over
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3. (SBU) Five candidates issued a statement December 12 calling the
December 3 election null and demanding a new democratic election.
Top challenger Jean Lahiniriko was accompanied by four candidates
who combined won 0.5 percent of the vote: Ferdinand Razakarimanana,
Philippe Tsiranana, Monja Roindefo and Daniel Rajakoba. Consistent
with pre-election statements, these candidates insist any election
won by Ravalomanana must therefore be fraudulent and continue to
debate the legality of the December 3 election date.


4. (SBU) Exceptional were both Elia Ravelomanantsoa -- the only
woman candidate -- and Ny Hasina Andriamanjato, who published
messages of thanks to their followers, gracefully admitting defeat
but vowing to continue to work for Madagascar's benefit. Notably
absent since election day is Herizo Razafimhaleo, the apparent
opposition frontrunner at the end of the campaign who placed a
disappointing fourth in unofficial tallies. The normally pugnacious
career politician and businessman has disappeared from public view,
though no one believes we have heard the last of Herizo.

HCC Rejects Ratsiraka's Fraud Claim
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5. (SBU) After a quick review, the HCC quickly rejected candidate
Ratsiraka's claim that 350,000 of Ravalomanana's votes should be
invalidated due to manipulation of the number of registered voters
before election day. The HCC ruled it was not the competent
authority to rule on the total number of registered voters, and
could only verify specific votes if a particular result is formally
disputed.

Happy Birthday Mr. President
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6. (SBU) Basking in almost-certain victory, President Ravalomanana
enjoyed his 57th birthday December 12 with 800 of his closest family
and friends. In well-chosen words, but standing before a huge
cake, the President spoke of the plight of famine-stricken Tulear
and thanked the United States, Japan, and United Nations for already
responding to the crisis. Ravalomanana said he loves the people of
Tulear, those who voted for him as well as those who did not, and
will take action in the current food crisis to show them his love.

NDI Confirms Unofficial Totals Look Good
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ANTANANARI 00001398 002.2 OF 002



7. (SBU) NDI shared with the Ambassador December 12 that its
analysis of independently-collected polling results showed
Ravalomanana winning about 56 percent of the vote, with a margin of
error of three percent (very close to the Interior Ministry's 54.8
percent). Emphasizing that this result was not very statistically
accurate, NDI noted it remained internally useful to have another
piece of evidence that the GOM's results look accurate. NDI
collected data from 900 observers in the Committee of National
Election Observers (CNOE) to calculate its semi-scientific result.
In an even smaller pool, the U.S. Embassy observers reported results
from 35 mostly urban polling stations across the country totaling
30,624 votes and similarly showed Ravalomanana winning with 57 per
cent. (Note: Due to lack of scientific rigor, NDI and Post
emphasize this information is for internal use only; we do not plan
to use it for any public announcement. End Note).


8. (SBU) NDI also shared that one of its expatriate staff had
traveled to about 20 district-level elections offices out of 116
total who collected results from 17,500 polling stations. All
regional offices visited had publicly posted results from their
areas. Quick comparisons -- both with known results at the polling
station level and with what has been reported at the Interior
Ministry -- revealed a discrepancy of just 140 votes. The sample of
district offices was selected for geography rather than randomness,
so is illustrative rather than conclusive.

COMMENT: FREE AND FAIR, THIS TIME AT LEAST...
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9. (SBU) While there are serious flaws in Madagascar's electoral
system, and noteworthy lapses in execution, opposition criticism to
date has failed to be constructive or specific. Ratsiraka's
complaint was ill-considered and illogical. The five others led by
Lahiniriko cling to a strategy of monotonous protest. All of this
speaks to the woeful lack of sophistication of Malagasy political
parties which, including Ravalomanana's own TIM party, are little
more than cults of personality. At this point we assess the process
as having been a free and fair expression of the citizens' will, but
also as being in need of reform. While the procedural flaws seem
not to have been a serious impediment in this election, in a close
contest they might be disastrous. For this reason, we intend to
make political reform an ongoing part of our policy dialogue with
the incoming government. END COMMENT.

MCGEE