Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06ANTANANARIVO1380
2006-12-11 14:29:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Antananarivo
Cable title:  

HIGH COURT MUST CERTIFY RAVALOMANANA VICTORY

Tags:  PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PHUM PINR MA 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO1763
OO RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHAN #1380/01 3451429
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 111429Z DEC 06
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3994
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 0760
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORPORATION
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 001380 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO, INR/AA, AND DRL
PARIS FOR D'ELIA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PHUM PINR MA
SUBJECT: HIGH COURT MUST CERTIFY RAVALOMANANA VICTORY

REF: ANTANANARIVO 1372 AND PREVIOUS

ANTANANARI 00001380 001.2 OF 002


UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 001380

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO, INR/AA, AND DRL
PARIS FOR D'ELIA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PHUM PINR MA
SUBJECT: HIGH COURT MUST CERTIFY RAVALOMANANA VICTORY

REF: ANTANANARIVO 1372 AND PREVIOUS

ANTANANARI 00001380 001.2 OF 002



1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The unofficial Ministry of Interior vote count
concluded December 10 with candidate and President Marc Ravalomanana
winning 54.8 percent. On cue his nearest challenger, Jean
Lahiniriko, publicly denounced the legitimacy of the election and
made numerous claims of fraud. Police continued to search the homes
of several opposition politicians suspected of supporting violent
actions, including those of renegade General Fidy. The High
Constitutional Court must certify the official results and hopes to
do so within a week. END SUMMARY.

First Round Victory Awaits High Court Approval
-------------- -


2. (U) Exactly one week after election day, the Ministry of Interior
completed December 10 its unofficial compilation of results from the
presidential election (reftels). With all 17,581 polling stations
reporting, representing 7.36 million registered voters and 4.43
million valid votes cast, the results showed a 61.45 percent
turnout. President Ravalomanana won 2.43 million votes for 54.8
percent based on this unofficial tally, with Jean Lahiniriko second
at 11.68 percent, Roland Ratsiraka third at 10.09 percent, and
Herizo Razafimhaleo fourth at 9.05 percent. None of the other 10
candidates earned even five percent. The relative speed with which
the unofficial vote count was completed -- a process that in the
past has taken six weeks -- was thanks to a mass communication
effort by the Interior Ministry. GOM officials hope the assistance
of South African helicopters and airplanes in transporting
affidavits and ballots from remote regions to vote counting centers
and on to the High Constitutional Court (HCC) will speed the
official result announcement as well.

Waiting For The Official Vote Count
--------------


3. (SBU) All attention now turns to the HCC which must compile and
certify the results from 116 regional districts where polling
station results were collected last week. As of midday December 11,

the HCC had 100 files of the 116 total. HCC President Jean Michel
Rajaonarivony has been reluctant to say publicly when he will make a
final announcement, but shared with the Ambassador December 11 that
it is possible they may have a final tally as early as December 15,
depending on the number of material errors that need to be
reconciled in each district's file. Candidate delegates, media, and
accredited observers are all allowed to visit the HCC to monitor the
count.

Lahiniriko Cries Foul
--------------


4. (SBU) Candidate Jean Lahiniriko predictably filed two
depositions at the HCC generally contesting the legitimacy of the
elections and calling on all election observers to pool their
results for an alternate vote count. HCC President Rajaonarivony
emphasized he would take all candidates' complaints seriously, but
said there was little he could do in the absence of any concrete
evidence. To date, according to Rajaonarivony, Lahiniriko has
failed to make any specific or detailed claims of fraud that can be
narrowed down to particular polling stations, officials, or other
individuals. The HCC addresses claims, he concluded, but does not
have the resources to conduct a thorough investigation and wholesale
audit of the entire election process if the candidate does not do
some of the initial legwork.


5. (SBU) In public statements Lahiniriko was equally vague in his
allegations but also quite inflammatory, calling for the "forces
vives" (intellectual elites) of Madagascar to "take over and
organize new elections in order to avoid bloodshed."

House Searches
--------------


6. (U) On December 8, the national radio broadcast a government
statement notifying the public the police will conduct nationwide
house searches following recent arrest warrants and asking people to
remain calm. With this "general search warrant," security forces
proceeded immediately to search the homes of a number of people
suspected of having connections to renegade coup-plotter General
Fidy and his ally the presidential candidate Pety Rakotoniaina.
Most notably, investigators reportedly found and confiscated 15
grenades, some detonators, and "important documents" from the home
of elderly former President Albert Zafy. Police also raided the

ANTANANARI 00001380 002.2 OF 002


home of Jacques Raharinirina, Director of Communications for
candidate/fugitive Pety Rakotoniaina, reportedly seizing documents
relating to their "Tambatra" political movement as well as papers
about "Chinese and Pakistani investment activities."

COMMENT:
--------------


7. (SBU) Whether or not the HCC announces results similar to the
Interior Ministry, several opposition members will continue to make
vague allegations of widespread fraud. If Ravalomanana's total
drops below 50 percent, Lahiniriko would face him in a run-off --
which explains the latter's somewhat desperate allegations. If the
HCC results bring Ravalomanana's total much below 54.8 percent, the
allegations of fraud -- for which we have seen no evidence -- may
gain traction with the Malagasy public. END COMMENT.

MCGEE