UNOFFICIAL RESULTS ALL BUT SEAL FIRST ROUND WIN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 001372

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO, INR/AA, AND DRL
PARIS FOR D'ELIA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PHUM PINR MA
SUBJECT: UNOFFICIAL RESULTS ALL BUT SEAL FIRST ROUND WIN

REF: ANTANANARIVO 1369 AND PREVIOUS

ANTANANARI 00001372 001.2 OF 002



1. (SBU) SUMMARY: With 82 percent of polling stations unofficially
reporting results to the Ministry of Interior, President-candidate
Ravalomanana is very likely to have the absolute majority of votes
needed to prevail in the first round. It will be several days
before the High Constitutional Court (HCC) completes its official
tabulation and certifies a result. Observer teams continued to
proclaim the election well-run but handicapped by systemic
shortcomings. There was a stir early December 8 when the Interior
Ministry closed its unofficial tabulation center for "technical
difficulties" due to power outages. Lahiniriko's party will file a
complaint for fraud, Pety is hunted by police for numerous alleged
offenses, and former President Zafy emerged from slumber. END
SUMMARY.

Ravalomanana Likely To Win In Round One
--------------


2. (SBU) With 82 percent of polling stations unofficially
reporting to the Interior Ministry -- representing 6.6 million
registered voters, four million of whom voted -- Ravalomanana has
received 2.24 million votes for 56.4 percent of valid votes cast.
With 400,000 - 700,000 ballots remaining unreported, the President
is almost mathematically assured first round victory, assuming the
HCC official tabulation matches unofficial figures. The HCC
counting operation has a long way to go before certifying the
election, as trucks and helicopters deliver polling station
affidavits and ballots.

CNOE Emphasizes Calm
--------------


3. (U) In preliminary results December 8, the Committee for
National Election Observers (CNOE) said the vote was calm and the
pre-electoral campaign was reasonably fair. CNOE Secretary General
Bruno Rakotoarison noted the period was non-violent, but pointed out
great disparities in candidates' resources. CNOE thus called for
campaign finance regulations to level the political playing field.


4. (U) Calling on the observations of 2,124 CNOE monitors -- funded
by the USG and trained by the National Democratic Institute --
Rakotoarison commended the process on several points: observers had
free access; voters were free of interference; voting station
officials were competent. Rakotoarison, like other observer teams,
criticized the errors in electoral lists. CNOE also made priority
recommendations for electoral reform: a cap on voters per polling
station of 800; a single ballot; and an overhaul of the electoral
list system.

African International Observers
--------------


5. (SBU) African Union (AU) and Southern African Development
Community (SADC) Secretariat statements were predictably soft,
generally praising the election while vaguely noting irregularities.
The more independent SADC Parliamentary Forum made a strong
statement December 7, emphasizing several aspects of Madagascar's
election which did not meet minimum SADC standards.


6. (SBU) In a December 8 meeting with the Ambassador, Team Leader
and SADC-PF Vice-Chairperson Duke Lefhoko (of Botswana) said the
pre-election period had been almost "too calm" compared to the
normal excitement he had witnessed in eight previous observer
missions. He concurred that the polling had been generally free and
fair, while also citing certain procedural concerns, notably the
government's dominant role in running the election.

Interior Ministry Computers Crash?
--------------


7. (SBU) The Interior Ministry's public (unofficial) tabulation
center temporarily closed with "technical difficulties" due to power
outages at 0730 December 8 and is still not open. The Ministry
caused much confusion as international journalists scrambled to read
notices posted outside the room, speculating what might "really" be
going on (Note: While probably nothing, the closure is reminiscent
of former President Ratsiraka's move in 2001 to stop posting results
when things were going bad for him. End Note). The story will
likely blow over once the center reopens and an explanation is
offered, but in the meantime journalists are looking for an
interesting spin on an otherwise boring election story.


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Lahiniriko Claims Fraud
--------------


8. (SBU) Candidate Jean Lahiniriko, hovering at ten percent of the
vote in third place, just behind Ratsiraka, announced his intention
to deposit a formal complaint of fraud at the HCC. Challenging the
declarations of international observers, Lahiniriko's supporters
allege that electoral list and voter card problems were not mere
"random mistakes." They will try to prove Ravalomanana inflated
lists to increase his vote count, while omitting names of opposition
supporters.

Pety On the Lam
--------------


9. (SBU) Several media outlets continue to pay attention to the
arrest warrant for candidate and mayor of Fianarantsoa Pety
Rakotoniaina; newspapers speculate he is suspected of obstruction of
the vote, theft (in 2004),and even conspiracy to attempt murder.
Pety, known to be close to renegade coup-plotting General Fidy, has
now - like the General - gone into hiding to avoid arrest.

Zafy Albert Mouthpiece Spouts Off at U.S.
--------------


10. (SBU) Having been graciously silent and harmless during the
electoral campaign, impeached former President Zafy Albert placed an
acidic editorial in La Tribune December 8. Zafy's supporter,
Emmanuel Rakotovahiny, made the argument that the United States was
to blame for the election taking place when it never should have.
For the umpteenth time Zafy called for a transition government for
reconciliation, while accusing the 13 opposition candidates of
abandoning Madagascar by participating in a "sham" election.

COMMENT: IT LOOKS LIKE RAVALOMANANA HAS WON
--------------


11. (SBU) It is unlikely, although still possible, that the HCC
official tabulation will vary from current estimates to change the
expected result: a first round victory for Marc Ravalomanana.
Opposition reactions are warming up on Day 5 of the count, and
should accelerate in the coming week. As long as Ravalomanana's
tally remains well above the 50 percent mark, these complaints are
unlikely to gain much traction; if the President's first round
margin narrows considerably the opposition may unite in crying foul
and demanding a second round poll. So far the big success of the
election appears to be rigorous domestic and international
observation which generally lauds implementation while criticizing
the electoral system. The loudest and most credible complaint
concerns the voter lists; leaving egg on the European Union's face
for their two million euro investment. Non-Europeans comment the
computerization started too late, and focused too much on technology
instead of actual quality of the lists for the election. To be
fair, an electoral law that did not close the lists until three days
before the election left no margin for error. END COMMENT.

MCGEE