MADAGASCAR CALM ON THE EVE OF ELECTION WEEKEND

UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 001348

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO, INR/AA, AND DRL
PARIS FOR D'ELIA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PHUM PINR MA
SUBJECT: MADAGASCAR CALM ON THE EVE OF ELECTION WEEKEND

REF: ANTANANARIVO 1334 AND PREVIOUS


1. (U) In early afternoon the last day of the campaign,
except for 30,000 supporters who filled the stadium in
Antananarivo to see President/candidate Marc Ravalomanana,
the rest of Madagascar appears to be calm and quiet.
Campaign rallies in different cities are expected to continue
into tonight, but as of 0700 local time December 2, the
campaign period is officially closed and public political
action forbidden.


2. (U) Potentially significant to voter turn-out, a tropical
storm "Anita" has formed off the northwest coast of
Madagascar and is expected to hit the west coast near
Morondava in the coming two-three days. While now weakening,
the storm will still deliver heavy rains and wind, thus
probably dampening voter participation in affected areas.

Observers Deploy
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3. (U) Over 150 international observers deployed to the field
December 1 to be in place for the Sunday, December 3
election: over 70 U.S. Mission American and Malagasy staff;
52 Europeans; 24 delegates of the SADC Parliamentarian Forum;
10 from La Francophonie; and others. In addition, 2,000
Malagasy observers trained by the National Democratic
Institute (NDI) with USG financing will watch the poll.

Last Words
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4. (U) Among opposition candidates, Herizo appears to have
emerged as the most serious contender with national reach.
Herizo has also stated his supporters will use cell phone
Short Message Service (SMS) technology to quickly communicate
results to his party headquarters. A few candidates are
focusing their efforts near home. Whether the 13 can muster
over 50 percent combined and force a run-off is an open
question. The first clue to the answer will be reports from
the field December 3 about how many candidates printed and
distributed their ballots for voters.


5. (SBU) One potential opposition accusation appears to have
been avoided: unofficial, unreleased results of a USG-funded
media monitoring program indicate that state radio and media
did offer equal free time to all candidates as required by
law. Private media, not bound by campaign rules, varied from
biased (the President's MBS network) to surprisingly balanced
(Don Bosco Radio and TV Plus). Most striking was that
campaign-related media was limited to free or paid air time -
news coverage of the campaign was almost non-existent. An
early explanation suggests station managers avoided news
reports on the campaign altogether for fear of retribution -
not just from the President or the GOM, but from any of the
14 candidates. If they did a news piece on one candidate,
for example, the other 13 might all complain.


6. (U) Post will be monitoring Sunday's polls and
communicating regularly with Mission observers from the
Embassy. Point of contact in case of queries from the
Department is DCM George N. Sibley at 261-33-442-2404
(direct) or IVG 590-2404, email SibleyGN@state.gov.


McGEE