Ravalomanana Leads in the Home Stretch

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 001334

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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PHUM PINR MA
SUBJECT: Ravalomanana Leads in the Home Stretch

REF: A) ANTANANARIVO 1324 AND PREVIOUS

B) ANTANANARIVO 001320


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: In the last stretch of the campaign season, only
a handful of the 14 presidential candidates have any real hopes of
making a showing in the December 3 polls. The five main contenders
are waging all-out campaigns around the country, with incumbent
President Ravalomanana in the lead in terms of national coverage.
The remaining nine candidates have gambled away their modest public
backing with cryptic messages and a joint statement of support for
the renegade General Fidy. Ravalomanana's camp confidently declares
that he will secure a first round victory, but the four main
challengers seek to garner enough combined votes to deny the
President an absolute majority and thus force a run-off. END
SUMMARY.

ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL
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2. (SBU) The competing campaign rallies held in Antananarivo over
the past week were essentially "popularity contests," complete with
musical guests and candidate-inspired paraphernalia. President
Ravalomanana and Herizo Razafimahaleo drew the largest crowds,
although Ravalomanana has a far larger following in Antananarivo.
By contrast, the "Union of Candidates for the Defense of Legality
and Democracy" recently formed by the eight candidates (including Ny
Hasina Andriamanjato, Philippe Tsiranana, Pety Rakotoniaina, Pastor
Daniel Rajakoba, General Ferdinanad Razakarimanana, Monja Roindefo
and Rakotonirina Manandafy) who supported General Fidy's botched
coup attempt (REF A) had a disappointing turnout with supporters
numbering in the low hundreds. The cryptic statements of the
"Union" candidates may have been partly to blame. Wavering between
boycotting, abstaining from or moving ahead with elections, the
candidates agreed only on denouncing the legality of the December 3
election date and the election preparations. With such politically
unsophisticated opponents, Ravalomanana's people are insisting the
President will score a first-round victory, although challengers are
hoping for a second round.


3. (U) President Ravalomanana has campaigned boldly in the centers
of support of his most serious challengers. From Antananarivo he
has now moved on to tackle the politically significant region of
Fianarantsoa. There he aims to shift political support from three
other candidates -- Pety Rakotoniaina, Herizo Razafimahaleo and
Rakotonirina Manandafy -- who hail from this southern region.

SHIFTING ALLEGIANCES ON THE COAST?
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4. (U) The campaign heated up over the weekend in the traditional
opposition-stronghold of Toamasina (also known as Tamatave) on the
east coast. President Ravalomanana and Mayor of Toamasina Roland
Ratsiraka (nephew of former President Didier Ratsiraka) ran the same
campaign circuit only a few days apart. Despite distribution of
fliers threatening to set fire to the house of any Ravalomanana
supporters, the President reportedly packed the stadium with
promises to make Toamasina "the showcase of the Indian Ocean" and
his development priority for the next five years. The surprising
response the President received in the historical support base of
the former ruling AREMA party may partly stem from some people's
dissatisfaction with Ratsiraka's performance as mayor. Similarly,
President Ravalomanana was greeted enthusiastically in the south
western coastal town of Tulear, where candidate and former Speaker
of the Assembly, Jean Lahiniriko has his base.


5. (SBU) To prevent coastal support from shifting toward the
President, some candidates continue to play on the historical ethnic
tension between those living on the coasts ("Cotier") and those
living on the high plateau (including the dominant "Merina").
Embassy staff traveling in northern Madagascar in and around Diego
Suarez (also known as Antsiranana) in the middle of the campaign
encountered the long-standing local animosity to the Merina class,
which includes President Ravalomanana. Several interlocutors
dismissed the new roads, hospitals and schools to complain about
jobs and inflation. Despite Ravalomanana spending his first
campaign days in Diego Suarez, commentators said things like "he
wants to kill coastal people," and blamed him for the drought.
While this tension very much exists in coastal areas like Diego
Suarez where hate of anything Merina runs strong, both Cotier and
Merina people have expressed to us that politicians will be less
successful in playing the ethnicity card this time around, in part
because the Malagasy electorate is wiser to this kind of
manipulation and in part because there has been more inter-ethnic
mixing in recent years. In addition, those Malagasy earning a
living, even indirectly, from tourism seem to support Ravalomanana

ANTANANARI 00001334 002 OF 002


strongly, both for his positive impact on this industry, in terms of
infrastructure development, and for fear of the negative economic
impact that would result if there is not a peaceful political
continuation.

ELECTION PREPARATIONS IN HAND
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6. (U) Madagascar will have around 15,000 election observers, nearly
200 of which are international. In addition to members of the
diplomatic community already on the ground, international observers
are starting to arrive in Antananarivo from the Southern African
Development Community (SADC) Secretariat and Parliamentary Forum,
the African Union (AU),the Commission for the Indian Ocean (COI),
the International Organization for the Francophonie (OIF),the
European Union, the National Democratic Institute (NDI),Norway,
Switzerland, Japan and South Africa. The Ministry of Interior is
optimistic that election preparations are well in hand, but
international donors remain somewhat concerned about the margin of
error in the electronic voter registration lists finalized on
November 29.

MINISTER PUBLICLY REAFFIRMS PRESS FREEDOM
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7. (U) In the wake of President Ravalomanana's controversial
campaign speech, in which he lashed out at irresponsible
journalists, the Minister of Communication met with the journalists'
crisis committee formed November 19 (REF B) to reassure them that
the GOM has no intention of muzzling or punishing the press. He
affirmed that the President has suspended until further notice plans
to increase sanctions in the penal code for journalists in violation
of media regulations.

ELECTION-RELATED CRIME ON THE RISE?
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8. (SBU) Post has received unconfirmed reports of allegedly
election-related crime; no injuries or casualties were reported.
The homes of Ravalomanana supporters in Antananarivo and Toamasina
were reportedly set on fire November 23. In an unrelated attack one
day later, assailants launched grenades, none of which exploded, at
a Tiko facility (the President's company) in Diego Suarez. General
Fidy's camp has been quiet over the past week, but he remains at
large and some contacts fear he may make another attempt to sabotage
the election. In light of other election-related security
incidents, Post will continue to monitor the security situation as
elections approach.

COMMENT
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9. (SBU) Ravalomanana's camp seems to be pushing hard for a decisive
victory in the first round, although some observers note it could be
in his political interest to aim for a second round in order to
avoid the inevitable accusations of fraud if his total is barely
above the 50 percent needed for a first round victory. Challenger
Herizo Razafimahaleo -- who some now say is the President's main
rival -- had a surprisingly strong showing over the weekend, but he
has a long way to go to build on the four percent backing he
received in the 2001 presidential election. Along with the other
three main challengers, Norbert Ratsirahonana, Roland Ratsiraka, and
Jean Lahiniriko, he will have to campaign hard to carve out support
in a Ravalomanana-dominated campaign season. Our informal "polling"
in the provinces suggests Ravalomanana is unpopular, except when
compared to his 13 opponents. He also represents stability, which
Malagasy crave above all else. Voter participation will represent a
touchstone of Madagascar's democratic progress. Although some of
President Ravalomanana's supporters fear voter abstention, Post
generally expects good voter participation. END COMMENT.

MCGEE