Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06ANTANANARIVO1269
2006-11-09 13:56:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Antananarivo
Cable title:  

PRE-CAMPAIGN RHETORIC HEATS UP IN MADAGASCAR

Tags:  PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PINR MA 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO4647
OO RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHAN #1269/01 3131356
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 091356Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3845
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 0718
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORPORATION
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ANTANANARIVO 001269 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO, INR/AA, AND DRL
PARIS FOR D'ELIA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PINR MA
SUBJECT: PRE-CAMPAIGN RHETORIC HEATS UP IN MADAGASCAR

REF: A) ANTANANARIVO 1261

B) ANTANANARIVO 1186

ANTANANARI 00001269 001.2 OF 003


UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ANTANANARIVO 001269

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO, INR/AA, AND DRL
PARIS FOR D'ELIA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PINR MA
SUBJECT: PRE-CAMPAIGN RHETORIC HEATS UP IN MADAGASCAR

REF: A) ANTANANARIVO 1261

B) ANTANANARIVO 1186

ANTANANARI 00001269 001.2 OF 003



1. (SBU) SUMMARY: With three days to go before the official
presidential campaign season kicks off November 12, Ambassador McGee
has individually met 11 of the 14 candidates. The pre-election
rhetoric is heating up among the presidential hopefuls but, with a
few notable exceptions, most have failed to offer a concrete vision
for the future. Rather, their discourse remains focused on the
perceived past and present transgressions of the current government,
as well as flaws in the electoral process. In what comes off
sounding like coordinated talking points, several opposition
candidates have emphasized that it is the international donors' duty
to ensure a smooth election process (ref A). Further, they assert
the international community will be responsible for the potentially
violent crisis they claim is sure to ensue if President Ravalomanana
is reelected. Government of Madagascar (GOM) officials have
responded to such criticism by encouraging politicians and voters to
participate in election preparations, while laying the groundwork
for the upcoming campaign season from a political and security
standpoint. At present, few candidates have the sophistication or
national standing to give President Ravalomanana a run for his
money. END SUMMARY.

- - - - - - - - - - - - -
IT ALL GOES BACK TO 2002
- - - - - - - - - - - - -


2. (SBU) The root of most candidates' malcontent lies in the 2002
political crisis between then incumbent President Didier Ratsiraka
and Marc Ravalomanana. After the nation teetered at the brink of
civil war for some months, the High Constitutional Court ultimately
ruled that Ravalomanana had won the majority of the popular vote in
the first round of elections, making him the legal President of
Madagascar. Opposition parties have since called for national
reconciliation and amnesty for their supporters imprisoned for
committing acts of violence in the 2002 crisis and for those who
fled into exile. They insist amnesty is a prerequisite to restore

peaceful relations between Malagasy living on the coast ("Cotier")
and the historically dominant ethnic group from the highlands
("Merina"). However, throughout his tenure, President Ravalomanana
has largely ignored political reform in favor of economic
development -- the repercussions of which are becoming evident in
the run-up to the presidential election.

- - - - - - - - - - -
A CASE OF SOUR GRAPES
- - - - - - - - - - -


3. (U) With unofficial pre-season campaigning well underway, the 14
presidential candidates are jockeying for position. With the
exception of four candidates--President Ravalomanana, Roindefo
Monja, Elia Ravelomanantsoa, and Pastor Jules Randrianjoary -- most
of the hopefuls have failed to offer a platform for the future (ref
B). Rather, their discourse remains focused on perceived government
transgressions of the past and present, as well as alleged flaws in
the electoral process. The general tenor of opposition candidate
complaints is that, without the implementation of the following
reforms, these elections will not be free and fair: a blanket
amnesty for those arrested in the 2002 political crisis (especially
former President Ratsiraka and former Vice Prime Minister Pierrot
Rajaonarivelo); the adoption of a single ballot; changes to the
electoral code; the distribution of identity cards (a prerequisite
for registered voters) to the over one million Malagasy who lack
them; an independent national electoral commission; and laws
regulating political party activities. Claiming the December 3
election date is unconstitutional, 11 candidates continue to demand
the election be postponed, the president resign, and a transitional
government be established. Recognizing these requests are likely to
go nowhere, candidates are gearing up for the start of the official
campaign season November 12.


4. (SBU) Some hopefuls have criticized the GOM for failing to
initiate dialogue with opposition candidates and for not undertaking
requested electoral reforms, despite calls from opposition parties,
civil society groups and the international community. The GOM's
decision to eschew the single ballot for the traditional multiple
ballot system has already opened the door to accusations of fraud
and corruption, particularly from those candidates who cannot fund
the printing or distribution of the over seven million ballots
needed for their candidacy. At the same time, there have been
reports that private money is pouring in from Paris to bolster
certain candidates and buy votes in this easily-manipulated system.
French Ambassador Le Roy privately reassured Ambassador McGee that,
while it is possible Malagasy expatriates in Paris and their French

ANTANANARI 00001269 002.2 OF 003


businesses may be supporting the campaigns, there is not a drop of
money in French government support for specific candidates.


5. (U) A number of candidates accuse government officials of other
forms of fraud. One candidate alleged that school teachers in
Fianarantsoa were being driven to TIM (President Ravalomanana's
political party) meetings in government vehicles. Candidates also
complain of unequal media coverage. The president undoubtedly
enjoys an advantage as the private owner of the MBS radio and
television networks with nationwide coverage. The National
Electoral Council (CNE) announced the equal partition of free public
airtime to which each candidate is entitled starting on November 12:
five minutes for radio and five minutes for television every other
day. Most candidates have also mentioned the logistical hurdles and
the alleged lack of accuracy in the GOM's efforts to create
Madagascar's first electronic voter registration lists as obstacles
to the conduct of fair and transparent elections.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - -
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONFLICT?
- - - - - - - - - - - - - -


6. (U) Several opposition candidates--particularly Manandafy
Rakotonirina and Pety Rakotoniaina--emphasize it is the
international donors' duty to ensure a smooth election process.
Believing the political conditions that precipitated the election
crisis in 2001 are largely still in place, these candidates assert
that Madagascar is on the cusp of a potentially violent conflict --
in the words of Rakotoniaina, "there will be blood." They assert
the international community will be directly responsible for the
potentially violent crisis they claim is sure to ensue if President
Ravalomanana is reelected. Four weeks before a single vote has been
cast, a handful of candidates and their followers have already
deemed a Ravalomanana victory as an automatic catalyst for crisis.
In response to this sense of unrest, the President has held a number
of meetings of top security officials in preparation for the
upcoming elections.


7. (SBU) Candidates have also been drawing political parallels
between Madagascar's current situation and that of Cote d'Ivoire and
Rwanda to convince the international donors of the need to pressure
the GOM for reforms -- comparisons the international community have
quickly rejected. A small number of candidates -- encouraged by
exiled political leader Pierrot Rajaonarivelo from Paris -- continue
to play on the historical tension between the Cotier and the Merina
as a lightning rod of discontent against the current Merina
President and his administration.

- - - - - -
GOM EFFORTS
- - - - - -


8. (SBU) With significant donor assistance, the GOM is making slow
and steady progress on election preparations. Madagascar's first
ever electronic voter registration lists are heading into the second
stage of revision; the CNE is registering and training approximately
3,000 domestic election observers for deployment around the country;
the Ministry of Interior and CNE are working with the United Nations
Development Program (UNDP) and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs)
to prepare public education campaigns for voters; and tamper-proof
ballot boxes are being installed in over 17,000 polling stations.
However, international donors have privately expressed concerns that
election preparations are not progressing as quickly or effectively
as hoped. While we are seeing steady progress in the verification
of the electronic voter registration lists in urban areas and more
affluent provinces, there are also consistent reports the
verification process is struggling in more remote regions plagued
with poor communication infrastructure. With less than a month
until election day, certain elements of the public awareness and
voter education campaigns have not yet been launched. Such problems
and delays are consistently pointed out by opposition candidates to
argue the government is deliberately dragging its feet in executing
the logistics for transparent elections. Much of this perception of
government inertia can be explained by legitimate capacity problems;
however, on certain issues - such as the use of a single ballot for
all candidates - the GOM appears to have deliberately passed on the
chance to hold a more transparent election.

- - - -
COMMENT
- - - -


9. (SBU) Ravalomanana's tenure has been marked by significant
economic reforms, but his failure to implement political reforms
over the past four years -- specifically with regard to the

ANTANANARI 00001269 003.2 OF 003


electoral framework -- has opened the government to predictable
criticism in the run-up to the election. Acknowledging the need for
further reforms in the future, Ambassador McGee encouraged
candidates to make these elections as free, fair, transparent and
peaceful as possible as a base to further improve future elections.
A majority of the 11 presidential candidates who met with Ambassador
McGee claim to seek better living standards for the Malagasy people,
and all expressed a willingness to work with the United States if
elected. In the intensely personal politics of Madagascar, a small
number of opposition candidates appear determined to create some
degree of trouble in the upcoming elections, if only to embarrass
President Ravalomanana on the international stage. Their degree of
success in this effort may well depend on how his administration and
security services react - or overreact - to these provocations. END
COMMENT.