MADAGASCAR PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES VENT TO DONORS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 001261

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/E - MBEYZEROV
AMEMBASSY PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL EAID MA
SUBJECT: MADAGASCAR PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES VENT TO DONORS

REF: ANTANANARIVO 1186

ANTANANARI 00001261 001.2 OF 002



1. (SBU) SUMMARY: All but one of Madagascar's 14 presidential
candidates, or their representatives, met foreign donors assisting
Madagascar's electoral process on November 7. President
Ravalomanana's representative, Minister of Education Haja Nirina
Razafinjatoro, did not speak. All other candidates decried the
current government along several common themes: the illegality of
the election date; the irregularities in the election lists; and
their lack of access to the media. A few forecast a debacle and
blamed, in advance, the international community for allowing it.
Several of the donors spoke to some of these specific allegations,
but their reasonable replies appeared to fall on deaf ears. END
SUMMARY.


2. (U) At the behest of several candidates, United Nations
Development Program (UNDP) ResRep Bouri Sanhoudi invited all 14 of
the official candidates (listed Reftel) for a give-and-take session
with ambassadors from the donor countries and organizations
assisting Madagascar in its elections. Nine candidates appeared in
person and five sent representatives, including President
Ravalomanana who sent Education Minister Razafinjatoro. Only former
telecommunication minister, Ny Hasina Andriamanjato, was
unrepresented. While the session was closed, there was massive
press presence before and after; most newspapers gave the event
front page coverage November 8.


3. (U) Every candidate complained that the December 3 date set for
the elections was unconstitutional. None was willing to propose an
alternate date, even when challenged by the German Ambassador to do
so. None was able to explain how the earlier date disadvantaged
them in any way, since the date had been announced with plenty of
advance notice in May, and the date represented a reduction - not an
extension - of the President's term. Only Herizo Razafimahaleo made
a logical case, admitting that the date itself was not significant
except as an indicator that the current government rules with
impunity, showing itself willing to ignore the constitution when it
chooses to. Both French Ambassador Le Roy and European Union Chief
of Mission Boidin pointed out that the government had sought
guidance on the date and received approval from the High
Constitutional Court in advance of announcing it.


4. (U) Most of the candidates also complained that the electoral
lists were flawed. Pety Rakotoniaina explicitly claimed the lists
were being falsified by the government to the advantage of the
ruling party. Other candidates were less accusatory, but still
claimed the process of updating the lists was not being carried out
transparently. The EU is funding most of the computerization of the
new list and is sensitive to this critique. However, when Boidin
asserted that no list will be perfect, but that the computerized
list will still be a marked improvement over what went before, Army
General Ferdinand Razakarimanana replied acidly that an electronic
list can still be a fraudulent list. Several of the donors pointed
out that the updating of the lists was being carried out locally and
that the political parties and candidates should be urging their
partisans to ensure that this is done accurately.


5. (U) A majority of the candidates complained that they were not
being given adequate access to the State media. They pointed out
that only through the radio and TV can the voters come to know the
candidates. Some complained that the announcement of their
candidacies had been ignored in the media, others complained that
they would not be allowed sufficient time to make their case to the
public, and yet others complained that some candidates (read: the
President) have access to private media that the others do not. The
Swiss Charge acknowledged some of these concerns, but pointed out
that the "equal access" to public media is only guaranteed for the
campaign period that had not yet officially begun. He said the
donors would be watching to see how the GOM decides to allocate time
on public radio and TV. He mentioned that he had been posted
previously in totalitarian states, and that having private media was
not a curse but a blessing.


6. (U) A few candidates took the opportunity to be sharply critical
of the donor community. A couple hinted darkly at improper
involvement in Madagascar's internal affairs. More common was a
sense of blaming the donor community, in advance, for a presumed
failure of the election to be free and fair. One candidate even
forecast that Madagascar would slip into violence and chaos and that
the international community would be to blame if it did.


7. (SBU) COMMENT: The candidates got their chance to vent, but few
came across as being remotely statesmanlike and many were not even
responsible. The French Ambassador pointed out that no election is
perfect, but it appears clear that they will criticize any minor

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flaw bitterly, whether it has any bearing on the outcome or not.
The UNDP ResRep's point, that the government's request for help from
the international community was a positive sign of its intention to
hold a clean election, went unacknowledged. The candidates'
readiness to cry "foul" before a single vote has been cast probably
reflects the political strength of President Ravalomanana and their
unspoken recognition that he may be almost impossible to beat. On
December 4 they will, no doubt, still be arguing that the election
should not have been held on December 3. From the standpoint of
Madagascar's democracy it is disappointing that complaints about the
process seem to trump active participation and that no candidate
appears to be building a party organization with a future-looking
perspective. Instead of presenting any kind of a positive
alternative, the common campaign tactic consists merely of sniping
at the government and its shortcomings. Fortunately the veiled
threats of violence seem to emanate mostly from candidates with
little following. That said, isolated violent incidents are highly
likely and a measured government response will be needed to prevent
them from escalating. END COMMENT.

MCGEE