PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES SET IN MADAGASCAR

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ANTANANARIVO 001186

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/FO, AF/E, INR/AA, INR/B and DRL
PARIS FOR D'ELIA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PINR MA
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES SET IN MADAGASCAR

REF: A) ANTANANARIVO 001142

B) ANTANANARIVO 001136
C) ANTANANARIVO 000649
D) ANTANANARIVO 000464

ANTANANARI 00001186 001.2 OF 003



1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On October 18, Madagascar's High Constitutional
Court (HCC) officially approved 14 out of 18 candidates for the
upcoming December 3 presidential election. The HCC rejected
controversial candidate Pierrot Rajaonarivelo because his
application did not comply with Malagasy law regarding the
certification of his signature; the other three rejected candidates
had not paid the registration fee. At this point, President
Ravalomanana remains the clear front-runner with only one or two
others plausibly able to develop a national following to be
considered serious contenders in the upcoming election. END
SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) The HCC President announced that the electoral campaign
will start on November 12 and will end on December 2 at 7:00 am. On
December 3, polling stations should open at 7:00 am and close at
6:00 pm. Post offers the following initial thumbnail information on
the 14 candidates, listed roughly in order of political influence:

a) President Marc RAVALOMANANA, age 57, is up for reelection after a
hotly contested election in 2002. He has said that he plans to
continue his work to date, particularly the implementation of the
Madagascar Action Plan (MAP) for development. A wealthy self-made
businessman, he hails from the highlands and was formerly Mayor of
Antananarivo, but his support base is national in scope.

b) Jean LAHINIRIKO, in his early 50's, is the former President of
the National Assembly. Once a member of President Ravalomanana's "I
Love Madagascar" (TIM) political party, he resigned from TIM earlier
this year after being ousted from his position at the National
Assembly due to internal dissension within the TIM party and his
public criticism of the President. Hailing from the coastal city of
Tulear, his platform focuses generally on national amnesty for the
2002 election crisis, the fight against terrorism and improving the
standard of living of the Malagasy people.

c) Norbert Lala RATSIRAHONANA, in his late 50's, is currently the
president of the AVI political party. Originally from Antananarivo,
his former posts include President of the HCC, Chief of State,
Advisor to President Ravalomanana, and Itinerant Ambassador. His
platform will be a continuation of what he started in 1996 as acting
Head of State after the impeachment of President Zafy -- namely,
negotiations with the IMF and the World Bank, respect for human
rights, democracy, and good governance -- with a new emphasis on
nation-wide economic development and the fight against terrorism.

d) Pety RAKOTONIAINA, in his early 40's, is currently the mayor of
the City of Fianarantsoa. Formerly an influential supporter of
Ravalomanana, Pety helped the President win the key highland
province of Fianarantsoa in the 2002 crisis. Pety left his senior
post at the MFM party in 2005 to create his own competing political
association, TAMBATRA. Now known for his vocal criticism of
President Ravalomanana, his platform focuses generally on improving
the standard of living for the Malagasy people, with a focus on
combating cattle rustling.

e) Roland RATSIRAKA, 40 years old and nephew of former president
Didier Ratsiraka, is currently the mayor of the coastal city of
Toamasina (aka Tamatave). He will run under his own political
party, TTS. His platform focuses on promoting private sector
development and national security.

f) Rakotonirina MANANDAFY, in his early 60's and the oldest of all
the candidates, has made four failed attempts to run for the
presidency in the past. President of the MFM party - widely
regarded as a troublemaker for its expertise in organizing massive
street demonstrations - Manandafy is currently a political advisor
to President Ravalomanana (although he is reportedly rarely
consulted). Also from Fianarantsoa, Manandafy has begun to distance
himself from the President by criticizing his management style and
greed; however, he has not yet voiced a specific platform for the
future.

g) Herizo RAZAFIMAHALEO, in his late 40's, is the former Vice-Prime
Minister of Foreign Affairs and the founder of the LEADER/FANILO
political party, from which he recently resigned but still maintains
strong ties. Originally from Fianarantsoa, this is his third
attempt at running for the presidency, this time as an independent.
A businessman with an MBA degree from University of Michigan, his
platform focuses on promoting economic development. He has
criticized the donors for "meddling" in Madagascar's internal

ANTANANARI 00001186 002.2 OF 003


affairs.

h) Ny Hasina ANDRIAMANJATO, in his mid-40s and educated in the
former USSR, is a former Minister of Telecommunication and was
Ravalomanana's adversary during the municipal election in 1999.
Having vowed that he will never work with Ravalomanana in the
future, he has been working quietly under the radar in the
pre-election period. His father and mentor, Pastor Richard
Andriamanjato, is well-known in Madagascar as one of the leaders of
the opposition hard-liners. He is originally from Antananarivo.

i) Phillipe TSIRANANA, in his late 40's, is the son of Philibert
Tsiranana, Madagascar's first President. Having lived all of his

SIPDIS
adult life overseas, his only real credibility stems from his family
legacy. From the province of Mahajunga, his platform focuses
generally on continuing his father's work.

j) Roindefo MONJA, in his early 40's, is the son of the now deceased
Malagasy nationalist Monja Jaona, a well-known political figure from
the Province of Tulear. Like President Ravalomanana, he is a
self-made businessman and is currently the leader of the political
party Monima K founded by his father. He has been largely silent
regarding his political platform for the future.

k) Army General Ferdinand RAZAKARIMANANA, in his early 50's, was
formerly provincial head in Antananarivo. Appointed to that
position by President Ravalomanana, he was later fired for
"insubordination" and replaced by a civil servant. He has since
joined the opposition hard-liners. A surprise candidate, he has not
yet voiced a platform.

l) Elia RAVELOMANANTSOA, in her early 50's, is the first and only
woman ever to run for the presidency. A businesswoman from the
highlands, she is mostly known as the organizer of the annual
fashion show "Manja," which promotes young Malagasy designers. Her
political platform focuses on raising the profile of women in
Madagascar.

m) Presbyterian Pastor Daniel RAJAKOBA, in his late 50's, lost the
2001 presidential race by a landslide. From Mahajunga, he has not
yet voiced a political platform.

n) Pastor Jules RANDRIANJOARY, in his early 50's, is a completely
unknown figure on the political scene who calls himself a "ray
aman-dreny" (an elder) candidate. Also from the highlands, his
platform is to put national life in the hands of the Holy Spirit.


3. Following are the four candidates who were rejected:

Pierrot RAJAONARIVELO, in his mid-50's and former Vice-Prime
Minister in Charge of Budget and Decentralization during Ratsiraka's
regime, is most notable for his controversial attempts over the past
few weeks to return to Madagascar from a self-imposed exile in Paris
that began after the last presidential elections (Refs A and B).
His political message to his supporters, based mainly in the coastal
city of Tamatave, has focused solely on the transgressions of the
2002 elections and "saving his people" from the poverty exacerbated
by the current government's policies. The HCC ruled that the
candidacy of Rajaonarivelo could not be accepted because the
certification of his signature was done in Paris on 2 October 2006;
according to Malagasy law, certification of signature can only be
done by appropriate local officials in Madagascar. The HCC also
ruled, in convoluted legalistic reasoning, that Rajaonarivelo still
enjoys his civil and political rights despite his earlier conviction
(still under appeal) and the outstanding arrest warrant against
him.

The following candidates were rejected because they failed to pay
the registration fee:

Army General ANDRIANAFIDISOA, in his late 50's, was the key military
officer who helped Ravalomanana take control of the five remaining
provinces (outside Antananarivo) during the 2002 crisis. Appointed
and subsequently fired by Ravalomanana from the positions of
Chairman of the Board of SECREN and Director General of OMNIS, he
has since expressed his hatred for the President. He reportedly
expressed his intention to join forces with Pety Rakotoniaina if his
candidacy is rejected in order to complicate Ravalomanana's
candidacy.

Andrianjaka RAJAONAH and ANDRIAMANOSY, alias Bema, are both unknown
figures.


4. (U) Of Madagascar's six provinces, Antsiranana (also known as
Diego) is the only one not represented among the 18 candidates.

ANTANANARI 00001186 003.2 OF 003




5. (SBU) COMMENT: The general lack of political platforms reflects
the reality that, in Madagascar, it is personalities and not
policies or parties that drive the political process. As such, the
divided opposition is unlikely to rally behind any single candidate
to try to bring the anti-Ravalomanana forces under one banner. The
vast majority of the candidates listed above are not considered to
be serious contenders for the presidency; their candidacy may be
partly intended to split the vote in the hopes of a runoff election
and partly intended to gain leverage to trade for a post-election
reward. Only President Ravalomanana and a handful of others --
namely Pierrot Rajaonarivelo, Jean Lahirinko, and Norbert Lala
Ratsirahonana -- have any sort of national following. END COMMENT.

MCGEE