Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06ANTANANARIVO1142
2006-10-10 14:59:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Antananarivo
Cable title:  

THWARTED RETURN OF EXILE RAISES POLITICAL TENSIONS

Tags:  PGOV PREL ASEC CASC MA 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO4527
RR RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHAN #1142/01 2831459
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 101459Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3674
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEV COMM COLLECTIVE
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 0698
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 001142 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR S/ES-O
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E - MBEYZEROV
DEPARTMENT FOR CA/OCS/ACS/AF - DONLON
PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC CASC MA
SUBJECT: THWARTED RETURN OF EXILE RAISES POLITICAL TENSIONS

REFTEL:
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 001142

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR S/ES-O
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E - MBEYZEROV
DEPARTMENT FOR CA/OCS/ACS/AF - DONLON
PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC CASC MA
SUBJECT: THWARTED RETURN OF EXILE RAISES POLITICAL TENSIONS

REFTEL: 1) ANTANANARIVO 01136 2) ANTANANARIVO 01135

CLASSIFIED BY CDA GEORGE N. SIBLEY FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D.


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The low-level political tension in Madagascar
continues after the Government of Madagascar (GoM) closed a coastal
airport on Saturday, October 7 to prevent the return of exiled
political leader Pierrot Rajaonarivelo from Paris via Riunion.
RajaonariveloQs supporters have peacefully stepped back for the moment,
but from his fallback position in Mauritius the ex-Vice Prime Minister
continues to urge his supporters to carry out retaliatory nationwide
strikes and to promise he will return to Madagascar using whatever
means necessary in the remaining days of the registration season for
presidential candidates. GoM officials are seriously concerned about
Rajaonarivelo's ability to destabilize the political situation in
advance of the elections and are apparently divided over his ultimate
intentions - whether he is simply bluffing to create trouble for the
current administration or intent on returning at any cost. The
perception of the GoM's ability to conduct peaceful presidential
elections - and the credibility of President Ravalomanana himself -
have been somewhat shaken by the events of the past weekend. END
SUMMARY.


2. (U) Following media reports last week that Rajaonarivelo was
scheduled to land in Toamasina (also known by the French name Tamatave)
on an Air Austral flight on Saturday afternoon, approximately 1,000 of
his AREMA opposition party supporters gathered at the airport to
welcome him. Given the tension surrounding the GoM's pledge to arrest
Rajaonarivelo upon arrival for crimes of which he was convicted in
absentia (reftel),the GoM dispatched approximately 500 troops - a
combination of police, gendarmerie and military - to the airport in
anticipation of unrest among his supporters. The demonstrators quickly
overwhelmed the barriers at the airport, despite the troops firing

several tear gas canisters, but the confrontation did not escalate
further and resulted in no injuries. The standoff culminated in the
early afternoon with the Ministry of Transportation's decision to close
Toamasina airport to all international flights, citing security
concerns.


3. (SBU) From his current location, now reported to be in Mauritius,
Rajaonarivelo is urging all political leaders to join him in calling
for President Ravalomanana's resignation and continues to publicly
declare that he will return to Madagascar using whatever means
necessary, no matter what the price, well before registration season
for presidential candidates closes on October 14. According to police
sources, Rajaonarivelo may come on a Thursday, October 12 flight from
Mauritius and will ask his supporters to meet him to prevent his arrest
at the airport.


4. (SBU) Rajaonarivelo is also calling for a general nation-wide strike
in retaliation. Post expects there will be some strikes around the
country as at least one high-level Rajaonarivelo supporter in the
parliament is traveling around the country to incite unrest; however,
it is too early to assess the effectiveness of these appeals.
Rajaonarivelo's party has also taken out full-page newspaper ads
appealing to the international community to get involved or risk having
elections that are not free and fair.


5. (C) Some GoM officials we have spoken to are seriously concerned
about Rajaonarivelo and his supporters' ability to destabilize the
political situation in advance of the elections and are apparently
divided over Rajaonarivelo's ultimate intentions - whether he is simply
bluffing to create trouble for the current administration or intent on
returning at any costs. Believing that Rajaonarivelo may go so far as
to charter a private plane, the Director of Military Affairs in the
Office of the Presidency (protect) suggested that the general tenor of
high-level government meetings taking place today is, "things are
getting bad." The Minister of Interior (protect) separately noted that
a number of Rajaonarivelo;s colleagues and supporters had already flown
to Madagascar from Reunion earlier last week, bolstering the belief
that Rajaonarivelo's intent is to create trouble.


6. (U) The weekend's events also confirmed a three-way split in the
fractured AREMA party. The hard-liners gathered in Toamasina announced
their official support for Pierrot Rajaonarivelo's candidacy for
president. The faction faithful to former President Didier Ratsiraka
will officially boycott elections. Finally, the smaller and more
moderate wing, AREMA Matotra, will officially back President
Ravalomanana's candidacy.


7. (U) Local media outlets reported on Embassy Antananarivo's warden
message cautioning all U.S. citizens to avoid travel to the Toamasina
area, spinning the significance of this message according to their
political bias.

ANTANANARI 00001142 002 OF 002




8. (SBU) COMMENT: Last week, President Ravalomanana promised that all
exiles are welcome to return to Madagascar but would face the judicial
consequences upon landing. GoM officials have clarified to us that the
Air Austral flight was free to land in Antananarivo but opted not to do
so. Media reports have widely criticized the Presidentss decision to
close Toamasina airport, and at this point we tend to concur that the
decision made him look weak at best and fearful at worst. END COMMENT.

SIBLEY