Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06ANKARA6733
2006-12-22 14:58:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Ankara
Cable title:  

NIYAZOV DEATH: TURKISH MFA ON TURKMENISTAN

Tags:  PREL PGOV TX TU 
pdf how-to read a cable
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DE RUEHAK #6733/01 3561458
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 221458Z DEC 06
FM AMEMBASSY ANKARA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0408
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
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RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J-3/J-5// PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEUITH/ODC ANKARA TU//TCH// PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEUITH/TLO ANKARA TU PRIORITY
RUEHAK/TSR ANKARA TU PRIORITY
RUEHAK/USDAO ANKARA TU PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 006733 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SCA DAS FEIGENBAUM

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/22/2021
TAGS: PREL PGOV TX TU
SUBJECT: NIYAZOV DEATH: TURKISH MFA ON TURKMENISTAN
TRANSITION


Classified by Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner for
Reasons 1.4 (b,d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 006733

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SCA DAS FEIGENBAUM

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/22/2021
TAGS: PREL PGOV TX TU
SUBJECT: NIYAZOV DEATH: TURKISH MFA ON TURKMENISTAN
TRANSITION


Classified by Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner for
Reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) PM Erdogan, FM Gul and Energy Minister Guler will lead
a delegation of approximately 200 to attend Niyazov's funeral
on Sunday in what Turkish MFA DDG for Central Asia Huseyin
Avni Karslioglu characterized as a culturally necessary show
of brotherly solidarity with their Turkmen brethren.
Karslioglu appreciated the U.S. effort to consult with the
Turks on the transition. He urged a gradual approach to
Turkmenistan during the upcoming period in support of
Turkey's twin goals of progress and stability. End Summary.

--------------
Be Cautious; Stability is Key;
Be Careful of Russia and Iran;
--------------


2. (C) The Turkish government is urging stability and calm
both publicly and privately. In a press release issued
December 21 to announce PM Erdogan's and FM Gul's intentions
to attend the funeral, the statement noted that "it is
important that there won't be a vacuum and uncertainty in
Turkmenistan." MFA DDG Karslioglu said Turkey does not want
"business as usual" in Turkmenistan, but stressed that
stability will be most important in the coming period.
Stability does not necessarily mean continuity, he noted.
Turkey and the U.S. should support cautious change, without
immediate criticism of the Niyazov regime and without pushing
too hard, too quickly. Turkey and the U.S. should not be
overly ambitious in our expectations for change, including in
terms of democratic development, although we both support
that, he noted. We noted that this appeared to be an
opportunity for new, albeit gradual beginnings, and stressed
we wanted to coordinate closely with the GOT.


3. (C) We cannot afford to ignore Russia, Karslioglu stated.
Russia will not lose its grip on Turkmenistan; they are
better positioned than the U.S. and Turkey to influence
developments. Pushing too hard or fast on change will only
play into the hands of the Russians, particularly regarding
gas. Russia will prefer "business as usual," with one-man
rule that they can manipulate and perhaps control. Turkey is

hopeful that, with time, reconciliation between Azerbaijan
and Turkmenistan could result in reviving the Caspian Basin
pipeline; the Turks will work with the Azeris to that end.
(Karsilioglu leaves mid-January to be the Turkish Ambassador
in Baku.) Iran's influence and interests should also be
taken into account, he said; all should be careful not to
play into Iran's hands.

--------------
Government Transition
--------------


4. (C) Karslioglu said that, in his opinion, it was important
to maintain the unspoken, unwritten balance of the five major
clans in Turkmenistan. He cautioned against elevating a
small clan to power with outside backing -- an approach he
has seen lead to disaster before. He said there is consensus
among the clans at the moment. Karslioglu also wondered what
role, if any, opposition figures currently in exile might
play in the transition, as well as those major opposition
figures jailed by Niyazov after the coup attempt. The lack
of education and an intelligentsia is a problem, Karslioglu
opined, and those educated opposition figures may try to play
a role. While Turkmenbashi was not a butcher in the Stalin
model, he did keep his people uneducated as he saw to their
basic needs. Turkmenistan does not have a viable military or
a government bureaucracy capable of making decisions.

-------------- ---
Turkish Delegation a Reflection of Cultural Ties
-------------- ---


5. (C) Karslioglu characterized FM Gul's remarks and the
official MFA statement (para 6) as "throwing flowers," as it

ANKARA 00006733 002 OF 002


reflects geographic and cultural norms after a death in this
part of the world. It is a message of the links and heritage
between Turks and Turkmens. "The Turkmen of Anatolia are
coming," he said. It is tradition -- even if relations were
not warm -- to show respect at the time of death. PM
Erdogan, FM Gul and Energy Minister Guler will lead a
delegation of approximately 200 to attend Sunday's funeral.
Members from all fields -- health, education, business, for
example -- comprise the delegation, Karslioglu said. FM Gul
will leave for Ashgabat the morning of December 23 and PM
Erdogan will follow in the evening. The delegation will
depart December 24 after the funeral. He noted that many in
the delegation had some role in assisting Turkmenistan in the
past. For instance, Turkey supported and secretly largely
funded Turkmenistan's efforts to change from the Cyrillic
alphabet to the Latin, he said. FM Gul, then a State
Secretary in the 1990s, had been personally invested in the

SIPDIS
project.


6. (U) Unofficial translation of MFA statement on December 21:

Begin Text:

We have learned with great sorrow that Turkmenistan President
Saparmurat Turkmenbasi passed away on December 21, 2006. Our
President, the TGNA Speaker, PM and FM, with condolence
messages that they sent both for themselves and for the
Turkish people, to their Turkmeni counterparts, expressed
that they shared the great sorrow that the brotherly
Turkmenistan people felt over the death of President
Turkmenbasi.

The late President Turkmenbasi led his country after
brotherly Turkmenistan won its independence following the
collapse of the USSR and served for protecting and
strengthening the sovereignty and independence of his country
and for the development of his people. Today Turkmenistan
and the brotherly Turkmeni people are celebrating the 15th
anniversary of the independence that they won after
centuries. Turkmenistan and brotherly Turkmeni people, as
well as the entire Turkic world, has been grateful to the
late Turkmenbasi for overcoming this historic and sensitive
period in a sound and smooth way.

In line with the vision of great leader Saparmurat
Turkmenbasi, who showed great efforts for developing and
strengthening relations and cooperation between Turkmenistan
and Turkey, cooperation and solidarity between our countries
will further develop in the coming period.

We are fully confident that the brotherly country nation with
its esteemed administrators, who are at threshold of a new
period, will overcome the sensitive period lying ahead with
great common sense and intelligence.

President Turkmenbasi will always be remembered with respect
and affection in Turkey and in the Turkic world for his
contributions to his country, his people and to the
development of bilateral relations and cooperation.

End text.


Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/

WILSON