TURKISH PM ERDOGAN'S VISIT TO TEHRAN -- INITIAL

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 006574

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/03/2016
TAGS: PREL IR IZ LE SY TU
SUBJECT: TURKISH PM ERDOGAN'S VISIT TO TEHRAN -- INITIAL
READOUT


Classified By: AMBASSADOR ROSS WILSON FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (S) Summary: Turkish PM Erdogan emphasized Lebanon and
the implications for Iran of widening Shia/Sunni conflict
during his December 3 visit to Tehran, according to FM Gul
and PM/FM foreign affairs advisor Davutoglu. Other topics
included Iraq and Iranian gas transit for the Nabucco
pipeline. End Summary.

FM Gul
--------------


2. (S) During a meeting on Turkey's EU negotiations December
4, FM Gul described to Ambassador the approach that PM
Erdogan took during his visit to Tehran the previous day and
how Turkey is looking at the Middle East. He noted that
Erdogan mentioned his travel plans in Riga to the President
and said that the trip was an outgrowth of the Oval Office
conversation about Iran and the Middle East that the two
leaders had in early October.


3. (S) According to Gul, Erdogan made the following points in
Tehran:

-- Lebanon: Instability and discord in Lebanon feed
Shia-Sunni conflict throughout the Middle East. That is a
danger to Iran and therefore not in Iran's interests. On the
contrary, stability there is good for all the states in the
region. Iran should stop encouraging Hezbollah, and it
should use its influence in Damascus toward the same end.
Turkey wants the Siniora government to succeed.

-- Iraq: Here, too, the specter of Shia-Sunni conflict can
endanger Iran and Iranian interests. Iran should stop and
discourage those feeding sectarian and religious conflict; it
should give stronger support to the government in Baghdad.
This will lead to improved cooperation throughout the region.
Iran should also make use of the Neighbors of Iraq meetings.
(Gul noted, parenthetically, that no Neighbors' foreign
ministers meeting is now scheduled, which he regretted.)

-- Nuclear: Iran should be logical and not miss an
opportunity with the US and the West. It may feel strong
now, but will find itself weak and fragile if conflict comes.
Instead, Iran should accept a diplomatic solution and work
with the P5 plus 1 proposal put forward in June.


4. (S) Gul said that Tehran also proposed an MOU on the
transit of Iranian gas across Turkey and into the Nabucco gas
pipeline that is being developed to supply Austrian and other
European markets. Gul said this MOU was prepared pursuant to
a secret Austrian/Iranian gas agreement that was done behind
Turkey's back. He said there was no action on this MOU and
implied that none will be taken any time soon.


5. (S) Ambassador briefly described to Gul work during the
past two weeks in Baghdad to bolster moderate,
cross-sectarian support for the Maliki government. He noted
that NEA PDAS Jeffrey will be in Ankara December 13-15 and
looks forward to talks with Gul and others about Iraq, Iran
and the Middle East. Gul expressed appreciation for US
consultations with Turkey on regional issues. In his view,
the key Iraqi problem is that no consensus exists among the
leadership on the future shape of Iraq. In the absence of
agreement, various leaders at least tacitly are endorsing
violence, whatever they may say to us, as a way to shape the
future and guarantee their interests. US and other external
efforts need to focus on getting consensus, especially
regarding the distribution of oil wealth. Gul also remarked
that the constitution will require changes if it is
accurately to reflect consensus among the main Iraqi groups.

PM/FM Foreign Affairs Advisor Davutoglu
--------------


6. (S) During a December 4 meeting on urkey/EU issues, the
German ambassador here briefed Ambassador on a readout of
Erdogan's Tehran talks that he got earlier in the day from
Davutoglu. Erdogan reportedly met with spiritual leader
Khamenei, Ahmedinejad, Rafsanjani and Larijani. Talks with
each Iranian interlocutor were similar. The majority of the
discussion focused on Shia/Sunni tensions in the region as a

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whole and in Lebanon and Iraq. On Iraq, both sides agreed on
the importance of territorial integrity and defusing
Shia/Sunni tensions and violence. Erdogan urged that Tehran
use its influence to aim Shia in Iraq and throughout the
region in favor of stability. Iran reportedly agreed with
Turkey on the need to strengthen the Maliki government and
regarding Kirkuk. On Lebanon, Erdogan said that Hezbollah's
withdrawal from the government was a mistake and urged
cooperation among regional states to support PM Siniora. The
Iranians agreed to try to use their influence to promote
peaceful developments in Lebanon, but said Hezbollah expects
a better position in the Beirut government and/or other
political concessions.


7. (S) On the nuclear issue, according to Davutoglu's readout
to the German, the Iranians complained about the US, saying
there is nothing they can do that will satisfy us. They
claimed only to want to develop a peaceful nuclear energy
program and rejected the idea of wanting nuclear weapons,
which are contrary to Islam. Erdogan reportedly took the
line indicated by FM Gul above, stressing in particular the
P5 plus 1 proposal.


8. (S) In a separate meeting with Ambassador December 2
before Erdogan's trip, Davutoglu noted several Erdogan
conversations with PM Siniora, the last of which occurred
earlier that day. Siniora, who did not seem in a "panic,"
sought Turkish support in Tehran and Damascus. Davutoglu
said Erdogan would emphasize in Tehran and Damascus that
Hezbollah needs to be encouraged along the political track
and discouraged from the military/terrorist track. In
Tehran, he would note the dangers for Iran of Shia/Sunni
confrontation, especially given that Iran is largely
surrounded by Sunni populations that will only be emboldened
by Shia gains and militancy in Iraq, Lebanon, etc. Iran can
live in a safer world or a more dangerous world, but the
choice depends on its actions. Erdogan would also refer in
Tehran to his October conversation in Washington with
President Bush and reiterate what he thought he heard from
the President: that the June P5 plus 1 proposal is serious
and has full US support, and that the US is also serious in
its determination that Iran should not have a nuclear weapons
capability.


9. (S) Regarding Iraq, Davutoglu said that a key problem is
the lack of a Sunni counterbalance to the Shia and Kurds.
Getting consensus among the three communities is essential to
maintaining Iraq's territorial integrity and unity.
Davutoglu said that if these fail, then "one goes back to the
1920s" -- e.g., when the new Republic of Turkey and the UK
jostled for control of the former Ottoman province of Mosul,
today's northern Iraq. Seemingly realizing the gravity of
his reference, Davutoglu hastened to add that Turkey does not
want and will not seek a redrawing of any boundaries.

Next Steps
--------------


10. (S) Gul said that Erdogan still plans to visit Damascus
and Beirut. The sequence and timing are unclear, but the
visits should occur before the end of the year and probably
much sooner. Davutoglu told the German ambassador that
Damascus will come first, and both cities should be soon. We
note that Erdogan is scheduled to be in Romania December 6-7
and New York from about December 18 for an Alliance of
Civilizations event.

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/

WILSON