Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06ANKARA5884
2006-10-11 14:57:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Ankara
Cable title:  

EUROPEAN LEADERS PRESS TURKEY TO IMPLEMENT

Tags:  PGOV PHUM PREL OSCE TU 
pdf how-to read a cable
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TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9325
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
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RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J-3/J-5//
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RUEUITH/TLO ANKARA TU
RUEHAK/TSR ANKARA TU
RUEHAK/USDAO ANKARA TU
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 005884 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/11/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL OSCE TU
SUBJECT: EUROPEAN LEADERS PRESS TURKEY TO IMPLEMENT
REFORMS, AVOID TRAIN WRECK

REF: ANKARA 5463

Classified By: DCM Nancy McEldowney for reasons 1.4(b),(d)
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 005884

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/11/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL OSCE TU
SUBJECT: EUROPEAN LEADERS PRESS TURKEY TO IMPLEMENT
REFORMS, AVOID TRAIN WRECK

REF: ANKARA 5463

Classified By: DCM Nancy McEldowney for reasons 1.4(b),(d)

1.(C) Summary: During recent high-level meetings, European
leaders told the GOT in clear, consistent terms that it must
abide by its commitment under the Ankara Protocol to open its
ports and airports to Greek Cypriot traffic and make
significant legislative reforms in order to avoid a "train
wreck" that could derail the country's EU accession bid.
Prime Minister Blair gave Prime Minister Erdogan a dose of
"tough love" during his October 3 stopover in London, urging
him to move forward on the Finnish EU Presidency's Cyprus
plan, and to amend Turkish Penal Code (TPC) Article 301.
German Chancellor Merkel and EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli
Rehn delivered similarly firm messages during their recent
visits to Ankara. Our European contacts hope that these
messages will lead the GOT to engage more urgently in
negotiating specific aspects of the Finns' Cyprus plan as
well as to make significant legislative changes quickly, but
are not optimistic. Although the GOT appears to have heard
and understood the message, it will take a determined
campaign by PM Erdogan, amidst rising nationalism in Turkey,
to muster the political will to deliver what the EU wants.
End summary.

-------------- --------------
Europeans Deliver Consistent Message: Tangible Progress
Needed
-------------- --------------


2. (U) During his October 3-5 trip to Ankara, EU Enlargement
Commissioner Olli Rehn delivered a clear message that the
ball is in Turkey's court to make the difficult decisions
required to keep its bid for EU membership on track. At an
October 3 speech at a Turkish Labor Conference, Rehn said
that EU member states' higher expectations of Turkey since it
became a negotiating country, combined with the fact that the
pace of reform has slowed, make it imperative that Turkey
make tangible progress before the Commission's November 8
progress report. Rehn called on Turkey to adopt a
"rock-solid" policy of reform in order to counter

"pessimists." He added with passion that Article 301 (which
criminalizes insulting "Turkishness") runs counter to a
cornerstone of European values: the freedom to express
critical, non-violent opinions. "Those opposing repealing
the unjustified restrictions of free speech in Article 301
and other parts of the Turkish law, are effectively opposing
a key condition of EU membership." Rehn also stressed the
need for Turkey to fulfill contractual obligations pursuant
to the Ankara Protocol.


3. (C) In an October 4 meeting in London, Prime Minister
Blair gave Prime Minister Erdogan some "tough love,"
according to our British Embassy contacts. Blair encouraged
Erdogan to continue to engage with the Finnish Presidency on
the issue of Cyprus, and cautioned Erdogan not to
underestimate what is at stake if Turkey does not move
forward on implementing the Ankara Protocol. Blair
reportedly stressed to Erdogan that Turkey should ensure that
it does not provide its detractors additional ammunition with
which to continue to try to shoot down its EU bid. He also
urged Erdogan to reform Article 301 prior to the release of
the EU Commission progress report, indicating that HMG is
committed to doing what it can to help argue its case at the
December meeting of the Council but that Turkey has to take
action first. Erdogan told Blair that the GOT has shown that
it is open to ideas and formulas for progress on Cyprus but
that the Greek Cypriots had not reciprocated with a similar
level of flexibility. Blair said Ankara should have a "Plan
B" if it decided to not move forward on implementation of the
Ankara Protocol.


4. (C) On October 5-6, German Chancellor Merkel echoed these
messages in her first official visit to Turkey since becoming
German chancellor, according to a readout from the German
Ambassador. During meetings with PM Erdogan and other
Turkish officials, Merkel noted that while her Christian
Democratic Union Party supports the "privileged partnership"
idea, she, as Chancellor, respects the German government's
commitment to support Turkey's full membership, according to

ANKARA 00005884 002 OF 002


Turkish contacts. Merkel emphasized, however, that Turkey
must meet its own reform commitments, most notably those
required by the Ankara Protocol, for accession talks to
proceed.

--------------
Do the Turks Have a Plan B?
--------------


5. (C) Ankara-based contacts in EU member state missions tell
us that there is an ongoing informal debate over what the
repercussions should be if Turkey fails to open its ports to
Cypriot vessels. Discussions have generally focused on the
number of chapters of the EU Acquis Communitaire on which
negotiations should be suspended. Some will admit that they
and their fellow EU mission colleagues have contributed to a
"muddying of the waters" by suggesting that the GOT's
decision to contribute troops to a beefed-up UNIFIL mission
in Lebanon would allow proponents of Turkey's EU accession to
argue against what many expect to be a decision to suspend
negotiations on a large number of chapters.


6. (C) In an October 2 meeting with the DCM, EU Commission to
Turkey Political Counselor Martin Dawson made it clear that
to keep negotiations on track, Turkey must act on three
things prior to the November 7 progress report: Cyprus,
Article 301, and the Law on Foundations. No action on these
issues would lead to a "very rocky" outcome, he told us.
Martin is not optimistic. He described the GOT as "stumbling
around" for months on the so-called 9th Reform Package,
noting that the GOT has yet to pass the Foundations Law and
passed a Private Education Law that failed to tackle the
shortcomings it was supposed to redress. Dawson also
expressed frustration over the GOT's apparent lack of a plan
of any sort to deal with the likely fallout should the EU
find its efforts to have fallen short, as expected. As
ultranationalist prosecutors bring "preposterous" cases under
Article 301, the government appears "flummoxed" as to how to
respond, Dawson said.


7. (C) Comment: The PM and AK Party seem to have heard and
registered (finally) the Europeans' consistent and firm
message that it is incumbent upon Turkey to take steps to
avoid a breakdown in the accession negotiations. The PM and
government officials are now engaged in the full-press
lobbying effort with the EU that they should have started
months ago. The parliament recently passed six (out of the
latest nine) additional laws from the 9th harmonization
package instituting reforms called for by the EU. The tough
reform measures remain, however. Prior to PM Erdogan's
October 2 Washington visit, MFA Deputy Under Secretary Apakan
had assured us that Turkey would take necessary measures to
address the EU's concerns on Article 301, saying "we will do
it." Upon his return to Ankara from Washington and London,
Erdogan signaled a clear intention to work with parliament to
amend Article 301, although the issue is not yet on the
agenda. At the same time, FM Gul and others have made it
clear that the GOT is ready to discuss specific aspects of
the Finnish plan on Cyprus in hopes that a fix can be found
to the problem of implementing the Ankara Protocol prior to
the December Council meeting. According to Finnish
Ambassador Maria Serenius, the EU Troika will hold an October
16 meeting with FM Gul in Luxembourg to work on the Cyprus
initiative.


8. (C) Comment cont'd.: Time is short, however, and the GOT
has left the most difficult decisions until the last minute.
Pushing through controversial legislation, such as Article
301 reform, will only become more difficult in Ankara's
increasingly charged, pre-election atmosphere. If the price
the GOT will have to pay for failing to meet EU expectations
before the November 8 report card is limited to suspension of
only a few chapters, many here may argue that is an
acceptable outcome. End comment.

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/

WILSON