TURKEY: FRAGILE CALM REMAINS IN SE AFTER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 005640

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/27/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM OSCE TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: FRAGILE CALM REMAINS IN SE AFTER
DIYARBAKIR BLAST; KURDS FEAR RALSTON COULD BE MANIPULATED
AGAINST THEIR INTERESTS

REF: A. ANKARA 5269


B. ADANA 60

Classified By: Classified by Kelly Degnan, Acting Political Counselor;
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (U) This is a Consulate Adana cable.


2. (C) Summary. A fragile calm pervades in the wake of the
September 12 bomb explosion in Diyarbakir (ref A); the people
are waiting for the government to bring the real perpetrators
to justice quickly and fairly. If that fails to happen, the
calm could dissipate quickly into the kind of chaos seen in
the region in March (ref B),or worse. Many in the region
equate the bombing with the November 2005 bombing in
Semdinli, where &dark government forces8 allegedly
perpetrated an explosion to justify continued suppression of
the PKK and the Kurdish cause. The appointment of a US
representative to combat PKK activities in Iraq is widely
supported throughout Turkey's southeast, although Kurds
remain fearful that the representative could be manipulated
by the GOT and GOI into supporting anti-Kurd policies. End
summary.


3. (C) In a recent trip to Van, Hakkari, Semdinli and
Yuksekova, our interlocutors told us that the mood in the
region remained calm in the wake of the September 12
explosion in Diyarbakir. The governors and sub-governors we
spoke with painted a rosy picture of continuing calm and
growing support of GOT policies in the region. In contrast,
our Kurdish interlocutors stressed that although the mood was
currently quiet, people in the region were still fearful and
distrusted the GOT more than ever, blaming the recent
Diyarbakir bombing on "dark forces" within the state. Seymus
Diken, Advisor to Diyarbakir,s Democratic Society Party
(DTP) mayor, told us that people in the region were still
waiting for the government to bring the perpetrators of the
bombing to justice. Diken emphasized that the calm could
quickly dissipate into an explosion of anger were the GOT to
handle the investigation and follow-up to the bombing poorly.



4. (C) Diken, and Yuksekova CHP Deputy Esat Canan, both told
us that people in the region equate the Diyarbakir bombing
with the November 2005 Semdinli bombing. According to Diken
and Canan, both incidents were likely perpetrated by "deep
state" actors as pretexts to continue the GOT,s clampdown on
the PKK and deny Kurds their cultural rights. Diken, Canan
and other Kurdish interlocutors believed that the timing of
the Diyarbakir bombing in the immediate wake of the
announcement of retired General Ralston as the special U.S.
representative on the PKK issue was no coincidence. They
emphasized that the bombing was a message sent by "deep
state" actors to justify increased government suppression of
PKK activities.

U.S. Representative on PKK Welcomed, but Skepticism Remains
-------------- --------------


5. (C) While all of our GOT and Kurdish interlocutors
welcomed the recent announcement of General Joseph Ralston as
Special Envoy for countering the PKK, the Kurdish
interlocutors all expressed skepticism about the intentions
of the GOT and the Government of Iraq (GOI) towards the
Kurdish people throughout the region. They fear that both
governments might manipulate the U.S. into actions and
policies in the region that would run counter to Kurdish
interests. Yuksekova,s DTP Mayor Salih Yildiz expressed
fears that the GOT, the GOI and even the government of Iran
would enter into secret agreements against the Kurds that
would nullify the U.S.'s positive relations with the Kurds in
Northern Iraq.


6. (C) Semdinli Mayor Rifat Geylan, Hakkari Deputy Canan and
Yuksekova Mayor Yildiz all reacted to Baghdad's announcement
of a crackdown on PKK activities in northern Iraq by calling
for greater US influence over Baghdad to ensure that Kurdish
rights in the region are protected. All of our Kurdish
interlocutors saw the need for a greater U.S. role as

ANKARA 00005640 002 OF 002


objective referee in the region to secure rights and peace
for the Kurds. Yildiz believed that Ralston would soon learn
how determined the Kurds are in their cause, and would also
learn how anti-U.S. and anti-E.U. the GOT really is. Many of
our Kurdish interlocutors repeatedly emphasized the necessity
of bringing the Kurds into the Ralston process. As Yildiz
put it, "The Kurds are like the bride at an arranged wedding,
where the groom, the parents and all the relatives are making
important decisions about the bride's life without so much as
consulting her or bringing her into the discussion."
Semdinli's DTP Mayor Hursi Tekin told us that without Kurdish
involvement in the Ralston process there could be no
democratic solution to the Kurdish problem.


7. (C) Comment. The Kurds see some hope in the Ralston
appointment, but believe that no progress is possible toward
solving the PKK problem or the Kurdish problem unless the
Kurds are brought into the solution process. Distrust of the
government is higher than ever among people in the southeast.
They remain doubtful, though expectant, that the GOT will
bring the real perpetrators of the Diyarbakir bombing to
justice, and that their demands for greater cultural rights
will be recognized. Kurdish intellectuals and opinion
leaders in the southeast continue to call for increased
involvement by the U.S. as an arbitrator between them and the
GOT and GOI to ensure that their regional interests and
cultural rights are secured.

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/

WILSON