Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06ANKARA5463
2006-09-19 11:10:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Ankara
Cable title:  

EU-TURKEY DISCONNECT LENDS CREDENCE TO POSSIBLE

Tags:  PGOV PREL PHUM OSCE TU 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO7255
PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHAK #5463/01 2621110
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 191110Z SEP 06
FM AMEMBASSY ANKARA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8810
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 005463 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM OSCE TU
SUBJECT: EU-TURKEY DISCONNECT LENDS CREDENCE TO POSSIBLE
TRAIN WRECK SCENARIO

REF: A. ANKARA 5268


B. ANKARA 5333

C. ANKARA 5121

Classified By: Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner for reasons 1.4 b,
d


C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 005463

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM OSCE TU
SUBJECT: EU-TURKEY DISCONNECT LENDS CREDENCE TO POSSIBLE
TRAIN WRECK SCENARIO

REF: A. ANKARA 5268


B. ANKARA 5333

C. ANKARA 5121

Classified By: Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner for reasons 1.4 b,
d



1. (C) Summary: Fears of some form of "train wreck" in
Turkey's EU accession process appear well-founded, given the
apparent disconnect between cautiously optimistic Turkish
officials and less sanguine EU contacts. In recent
conversations, GOT officials have predicted that the EU may
suspend negotiations on two or three chapters, while our EU
contacts put the figure at over ten, to include de facto
suspension. The GOT's previous track record of overcoming
eleventh hour hurdles may be giving the Turks false
confidence. At the same time, the unsung good news story is
that technical talks and screening are progressing well and
more EC monies are flowing than ever before. Unfortunately,
the lack of an active public relations policy appears to be
preventing the good news part of the message from reaching
the ever more euro-skeptic Turkish public. End summary.

-------------- --------------
Parliament's Agenda for the September 19 Special Session
-------------- --------------


2. (U) The Turkish Parliament will meet in a special session
on September 19 to consider EU harmonization legislation
prior to the European Commission's annual progress report,
due out October 24. According to EU and Turkish officials
with whom we have spoken, the Commission's formal deadline
for incorporating new laws and events into the report is
September 30, but significant events that occur in early
October may still be considered. Parliament has put seven
laws from the so-called 9th EU harmonization package on the
agenda for the session (ref a). Two of these -- the
Ombudsman Law and the Law on Private Education -- are out of
committee and ready for the general assembly. Passage of the
Ombudsman Law would bring Turkey into line with EU countries
by creating a body to analyze and make recommendations
regarding the functioning of the government. The Private

Education law would change currently existing language that
bars those not of "Turkish origin" from serving as Deputy
Directors at private schools. Currently, only Directors may
be of non-Turkish origin.


3. (U) The other draft laws remain in committee, as follows:

-- The Law on Amending the Settlement Law: Currently in the
Settlements and Transportation Committee, this draft would
alter a long-standing law on settling in Turkey, removing
language that excludes Roma;

-- The Foundations Law: The draft, which attempts to remove
various restrictions faced by religious minorities regarding
training, work permits, management, and property rights, is
in the Justice Committee;

-- The Law Amending the Law on the Court of Audits: This
law, which would allow civil auditing of military
expenditures, is currently with the Planning and Budget
Committee;

-- Both the Law on the Ratification of the Amendments in the
European Social Charter and The Law on the Ratification of
the Revised European Social Charter are currently in the
Foreign Relations Committee.

--------------
Turkish Officials Stirred But Not Shaken
--------------


4. (C) GOT officials remain cautiously optimistic regarding
Turkey's accession progress, and downplay Turkish and
international press reports that suggest a "train wreck" may
be imminent. In a meeting on September 13, the genial and
polished Justice and Development Party (AKP) Parliamentarian
and Justice Committee Chairman Koksal Toptan told us that in
the lead up to the October 2005 start of negotiations, the
GOT put forth an extraordinary effort, but that such a pace
is not necessary now. Toptan stated, "When I listen to EU
and Turkish officials, things are okay. As far as I know,
there is no problem." Toptan acknowledged some problems,
however, which he attributed to EU-bashing by groups who
stand to benefit from seeing the talks collapse. He noted
that things would proceed more rapidly and smoothly if Ali
Babacan were not stretched thin by maintaining the dual
portfolio of Economic Minister and Chief EU Negotiator.
Toptan was not aware of any potential change in Babacan's
portfolio.

ANKARA 00005463 002 OF 003




5. (C) Other GOT officials echoed Toptan's assessment that an
impasse is not imminent. Ahmet Aydin Dogan, the Political
Head at Turkey's EU Secretariat, which coordinates Turkey's
EU harmonization effort, predicted that during the special
session, Parliament will pass all seven EU laws on the
agenda. Dogan told us that he expected the opposition to
challenge the Foundations Law and several other laws, but
because "most of the majority find the drafts acceptable,"
all laws would be passed. (Comment: The opposition may
bluster, but AKP has 355 of 550 seats. End comment.)


6. (C) Our MFA contacts, although recognizing potential
problems, expressed optimism about the state of affairs. MFA
EU Directorate General Department Head Muhsin Kilicaslan
dismissed the European Parliament's recent highly critical
report as exaggerated and the result of various EU
countries, internal politics. According to both Kilicaslan
and fellow MFA Department Head Emre Yunt, the GOT has been
hard at work, internally and with EU colleagues, preparing
the various laws of the 9th Reform Package. Kilicaslan said
he believes that the EU Commission's annual report, due out
in October, will be critical but fair. Although Kilicaslan
recognizes that Turkish and European public sentiment toward
Turkey's accession has been souring, he sees the current
issues as "bumps in the road" that Turkey will surmount just
as it did during past critical moments.

--------------
Changes in Mentality Take Time
--------------


7. (C) GOT officials continue to note that even though the
government can, and will, continue to make legal changes on
paper, real change on human rights issues requires an altered
societal attitude that will not happen quickly. Regarding
controversial Turkish Penal Code 301, oft-cited as stifling
free speech, Justice Committee Chairman Toptan told us that,
from a procedural standpoint, Parliament can change the law
rather easily, but real reform requires a cultural
transformation. Toptan went on to describe Turkey's internal
struggle to achieve a balance between free expression and law
enforcement "to prevent anarchy." Toptan would not comment
on whether Article 301 would be added to the September 19
session agenda.


8. (C) Ahmet Aydin Dogan brought up women's issues to make
his point that the EU cannot expect Turkey to turn on a dime.
Dogan pointed out that honor killings, while horrific, also
are carried out in some European countries as part of old but
misguided traditions. In Dogan's view, the passage of
harmonization laws related to women's rights is a positive
step, but the EU is misguided in expecting Turkey immediately
to be able to end honor killings and other human rights
violations. When asked his views on a realistic timeline for
substantive change on such issues, Dogan predicted it would
take a generation.

--------------
Cyprus: Turkey's Red-Line
--------------


9. (C) Cyprus is uniformly seen by our contacts as an issue
on which the GOT will not budge. Justice Committee Chairman
Toptan reiterated the familiar line that the GOT is waiting
for the EU to fulfill promises made prior to the 2005
referendum on the Annan Plan, stating, "unless the isolation
is lifted, the GOT will make no move on this issue." At the
working level, the passion is even more evident. EU
Secretariat Political Head Dogan insisted that "Turkey is 100

SIPDIS
per cent right on this issue! The EU violated its own
principles by accepting a divided island." Although Dogan
believes the EU will suspend the three or four chapters that
most involve Cyprus, such as Transportation and Customs, he
was adamant that the GOT will not change its stance.

--------------
EU Perspective: Turkey's Barely Passing Grade
--------------


10. (C) Several European contacts expressed to us that the
GOT's confidence that Parliament will pass the necessary
group of laws this month reflects Turkey's failure to embrace
true reform. Dutch poloff van Haaften summarized the
prevailing view: "While Turkey has made impressive progress
and come far, there is a real lack of political enthusiasm
for the EU process on a high political level." French poloff
Roquefeuil told us that even though Turkey's committing
troops to UNIFIL sent a positive message to Europe, the
French will push the EU to send a "strong message" to Turkey
that its slow pace of reform since negotiations opened is not
acceptable. Roquefeuil said that it is critical for Turkey

ANKARA 00005463 003 OF 003


to pass all of the 9th Reform package to avoid a "very
negative" Commission report.


11. (C) EU contacts blame part of the recent drop-off in
Turkish and European public support on poor public relations
strategy. Neither side has adroitly publicized the positive
developments. Citing the GOT's recent anger over the release
of a Trafficking in Persons documentary critical of Turkey
(ref c),van Haaften said that Turkey missed a good
opportunity to turn a negative situation to its advantage by
publicizing the great progress Turkey has made on trafficking
issues. At the same time, van Haaften acknowledged the EU's
tendency to focus on high-profile cases, such as that of
Orhan Pamuk, while failing to carry out a coordinated public
relations campaign in Europe that spotlights areas of
progress.


12. (C) European Commission officer Dawson echoed the lament
that a poor public relations strategy is preventing the good
news angle from getting out. There is a clear difference
between perception and reality. The Euro 400 million in
grants for 2006 is the highest amount the Commission has ever
disbursed, and the EC mission staff in Turkey is now their
largest anywhere in the world. Both on screening and on a
technical level, talks are proceeding well. In fact, Dawson
said, EC cooperation with the Turks has never been better or
more intense. It is, he said, a qualitative shift.

--------------
EU-Turkey Disconnect
--------------


13. (C) GOT and EU contacts appear to agree that suspension
of negotiation on several Chapters is the likeliest outcome
of the Cyprus controversy. But a disconnect exists over the
severity of the steps the EU may pursue. Both Justice
Committee Chairman Toptan and Turkey's EU Secretariat
Political Chief Dogan told us that the EU will probably
suspend three or four chapters related to Cyprus, which would
allow progress on many other chapters to progress at
full-speed. EU contacts, on the other hand, indicated that
perhaps as many as 12 to 15 chapters will be suspended.
German DCM Prueger told us that while he does not believe de
jure suspension is on the agenda, the December Council could
go as far as de facto suspension, with no chapters opening
and a halt to screening. Each successive presidency would
then examine the situation to see if sufficient progress had
been made to warrant resuming work. Prueger added, though,
that even in that case, the EC's extensive technical
cooperation would continue, laying the groundwork for further
progress. According to van Haaften, "the EU is struggling to
find the balance between suspending enough chapters to push
the Turks and maintain credibility for its own internal
purposes, and avoiding a backlash in Turkey." In her view,
the EU Parliament's seriously critical Eurling Report, and
Turkey's rather defiant response to it, is indicative of the
disconnect and may signal more serious problems to come.

--------------
Comment
--------------


14. (C) The disconnect is real. Turkey and the EU have made
it over previous hurdles by dint of last minute negotiations
and perseverance. The near miss on the opening and closing
of the supposedly uncontroversial Science and Research
Chapter at the EU's June ministerial is just the latest
example. These past eleventh hour deals may have given the
Turks false confidence that they can make it over this next
hurde as well without offering some form of compromise on
opening ports and airports to the ROC. We will continue to
give the Turks the message that, with both parties having
drawn their lines in the sand, absent some movement, they
need to prepare themselves for a different reality.

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/

WILSON