TOURISTS CANCEL IN WAKE OF PKK BOMBINGS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 005228

SIPDIS

TREASURY FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS -- JROSE
USDOC FOR ITA/MAC/OWE - CHERIE RUSNAK

SENSITVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON TU
SUBJECT: TOURISTS CANCEL IN WAKE OF PKK BOMBINGS

REF: (A) Ankara 4953, (B) Ankara 4493, (C) Ankara 1105, (D) Ankara

1460

This is a joint Congen Istanbul - Embassy Ankara cable.


1. (SBU) Summary. Government and private sector tourism contacts
confirm substantial tourist cancellations, particularly in
Mediterranean and Aegean resort hotels, following the recent wave of
PKK bombings, but are not alarmist about final tourism numbers for
2006, which they expect to be down only slightly from last year.
Officials blame European package tour operators for what they
perceived as a knee-jerk and unfair response to the bombings,
including diverting travel from Turkey by offering penalty-free trip
cancellations and promising re-bookings to other destinations. End
Summary.

--------------
Mass Cancellations in Wake of Bombings
--------------


2. (SBU) Government and industry contacts confirm substantial
cancellations following the recent wave of bombings in tourist areas
of western Turkey, including the prime tourism centers of Antalya,
Marmaris and Istanbul (ref A). Ministry of Culture and Tourism
Director General for Investment Senol Aydemir, who was attending a
conference in Antalya when the bombings occurred, described
widespread vacancies at five-star hotels for two to three days as
pre-booked tourists stayed away, presumably waiting to see if there
would be more bombings. Although many eventually showed up a few
days late, he estimated that as many as 90,000 tourists ultimately
canceled vacations in Antalya (mainly at resort hotels) following
the bombings. Based on that figure, he speculated that nationwide
cancellations could be considerably higher.


3. (SBU) Aydemir speculated that absent the recent bombings, the
tourist arrivals might have reached 23 million by the end of 2006,
up from 21 million in 2005. However, although arrivals prior to the
bombing-linked cancellations were up 1% in August 2006 compared to
August 2005, totals were down 4.9% for January through August 2006
compared to the same period in 2005. Post-bombings, GOT officials
and the Istanbul-based Tourism Investors' Association (TIA) now
expect full year numbers to be on par with last year, when 21
million tourists spent $18 billion.


4. (SBU) Efforts by the tourism industry to control damage in the
bombings' aftermath included a mailing to culture and tourism
attaches in thirty-two countries that condemned terrorism and urged
international support, and asserted that Turkey is redoubling
security efforts. For example, a project to install security
cameras was underway in at least one tourist area in Antalya prior
to the recent wave of bombings, and the government plans to expand
the project to Bodrum and Kusadasi in the near future.

-------------- --------------
Bird Flu, Murdered Priest, Soccer Woes, and Competition
-------------- --------------


5. (SBU) The bombings only added to the sector's recent woes.
Aydemir listed a number of "unfortunate events" in late 2005 and
2006 that contributed to the year-to-date decline. Negative
publicity surrounding the bird flu outbreak, the murder of a priest
in Trabzon, and the Turkish National Soccer team's assault on Swiss
players following a World Cup qualifying loss marred Turkey's image
in Western Europe according to Aydemir. Culture and Tourism
Ministry Director General for Marketing Ozgur Ozaslan and other
sectoral contacts also insisted that the Danish cartoon crisis
tarnished Turkey's image abroad, given that potential visitors were
not able to differentiate Turkey from other Muslim countries that
reacted more violently to the cartoons. Tourism Investors'
Association Secretary Genral Nedret Koruyan also cited increased
copetition from other Mediterranean destinations, particularly
Greece and Spain, as well as a GOT decision to contract with a new
tourism promotion agency in November 2005. Tourist complaints about
the inadequate infrastructure in Antalya, as well as environmental
concerns, might have also been factors.

--------------
Turkish Officials Critical of Tour Operators
--------------


6. (SBU) "Unfortunate events" aside, perceived "bullying tactics"
by European tour operators, notably German-based TUI -- the world's
largest tour operator --and UK-based Thomas Cook drew harsh
criticism from tourism sector contacts. Aydemir explained that
European tour operators' attendance at tourism fairs in March and

ANKARA 00005228 002 OF 002


April 2006, and subsequent negotiation and finalization of contracts
with Turkish hotel operators in late April, signaled a preview of
the likely decline in European tourist arrivals for 2006. He noted
that European tour operators, unhappy with declining profit margins
in Turkey (as prices for resort tourism gradually increased due in
part to the strong lira),attempted to use the negative publicity
surrounding Turkey to negotiate cheaper hotel rates. When hotel
owners refused, tour operators threatened to divert customers to
other destinations.


7. (SBU) Marketing DG Ozaslan decried a "double standard" he saw in
the bombings' aftermath. After the recent bombings in Turkey, TUI
and Thomas Cook immediately posted statements on their websites
promising penalty-free cancellations and offering re-bookings to
other destinations, whereas European tour operators did not divert
tourists from travel to Sharm El Sheik, Egypt after bombings ripped
through tourist areas there last year.

--------------
Damage Control: Dim Outlook for 2007
--------------


8. (SBU) Our contacts declined to speculate on the possible
effects the bombings might have on tourist bookings for 2007.
Ozaslan described the Ministry's promotional activities to be
launched shortly in Europe and the U.S. to repair the damage done in
2005 and 2006. Turkey will continue to host journalists, producers,
and professionals --more that 3,000 people last year -- as a part of
its promotion campaign to combat misperceptions regarding Turkey.
He emphasized such misperceptions of Turks and Turkey were prevalent
in Europe, not the U.S.


9. (SBU) In an interesting new trend, arrivals from Germany and
other European countries declined in 2006, but the number of
visitors from Russia, Japan, Korea, and the United States increased.
Turkey remains the number one tourist destination for Russians.
From January through July 2006, 300,000 Americans vacationed in
Turkey, a 26% increase compared to the same period in 2005. Ozaslan
noted that before the events of 9/11, more than 500,000 American
tourists visited Turkey. He hoped that same number would be reached
by the end of 2006. Ozaslan hopes Turkey's unveiling of the Turkish
village at Disneyworld's Epcott Center at the end of 2006 will serve
to further boost American tourism to Turkey.


10. (SBU) Aydemir and Tourism Investors Association Secretary
General Koruyan cautioned that this year's stagnant tourism
statistics need to be put in the context of the extraordinary growth
in Turkish tourism over the past four years. Aydemir characterized
the 20% annual increase in general tourism during this period as
"beyond the expectations of the world tourism industry." Still,
matching or even exceeding the 2005 highpoint of 21 million visitors
could prove difficult. Given the majority of Turkey's
European-origin tourists travel on package tours, and in light of
the mass cancellations to Antalya in the wake of the August
bombings, regaining tour operator confidence in Antalya as a beach
vacation destination will be key.
Wilson