TURKEY NOT LIKELY AFFECTED BY LEBANON OIL SPILL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 004703

SIPDIS

USDOC FOR NOAA
STATE ALSO FOR OES/OMC RIDDLE FOR COAST GUARD

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

PARIS FOR USOECD

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: SENV MARR TU LE SY
SUBJECT: TURKEY NOT LIKELY AFFECTED BY LEBANON OIL SPILL

REF: LONDON 5867

ANKARA 00004703 001.2 OF 002



1. (SBU) Summary. Contrary to alarmist press reporting in Turkey,
a variety of assessments assign a low probability to the Lebanon oil
spill reaching Turkey. Still, the possibility cannot be excluded,
in which instance Turkey might need assistance for cleanup. Turkey
has improved its legislation and capacity for oil spill response,
but it still has significant constraints and is a work in progress.
Turkey would rely on industry and other outside help -- including
potentially from the USG -- to cope with any serious oil spill
cleanup. End Summary.

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LOW PROBABILITY OF REACHING TURKEY
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2. (SBU) Although the oil spill is a calamity for Lebanon and
potentially for Syria (reftel),it appears unlikely that it will
affect Turkey. Middle East Technical University Marine Sciences
Institute President Sukru Besiktepe, who works closely with the
IMO's Regional Marine Pollution Emergency Response Center (REMPEC)
in Malta, estimated that 80% of the oil slick was on Lebanon
beaches, 19% evaporated, and 1% on the water. He believed that oil
which had been detected and mitigated on Syrian beaches was mainly
due to illegal discharge from ships at sea.


3. (SBU) London-based Oil Spill Regional Preparedness Initiative
(OSPRI) (affiliated with the International Petroleum Industry
Environmental Conservation Association) Manager Peter Taylor told us
that the most current modeling predicted no impact on Turkey.
Therefore, the risk to Turkey was low, but not zero. He said that
satellite images -- albeit imperfect indicators -- corroborated
this. Overflights would normally provide better information, but
this was impossible in Lebanon. He said that a UNEP/OCHA/IMO/REMPEC
expert mission had mitigated some oil in Syria, but that the source
was unclear. Taylor noted that the heavy fuel oil spilled after the
bombing of the al-Jiyah power plant was particularly harmful and
persistent in the environment. He said that in the event the spill
reached Turkey, it would be very difficult to combat on the water
when it is weeks old and fragmented. Instead, shore crews would
have to be used.


4. Turkey Coast Guard Commander Admiral Can Erenoglu confirmed to
us that there was not an imminent threat to Turkey from the
10-15,000 tons spilled in Lebanon. He indicated that there had been
no request for assistance to Turkey from Lebanon or Syria. Erenoglu
said that the Coast Guard had primary responsibility for pollution
at sea caused by vessels.

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LOCAL CLEANUP CAPABILITIES LIMITED
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5. (SBU) Noting Turkey's pivotal role in oil transport, Taylor
said that OSPRI had worked closely with both Turkey and the regional
Black Sea Commission (littoral states environmental group) on
training and oil spill response readiness. He observed that the
Malta-based REMPEC was much more mature than the Black Sea
Commission. Taylor said that Turkey had passed new domestic
legislation, was preparing a National Oil Spill Contingency Plan,
and was working on secondary regulation. (While the Ministry of
Environment and Forestry has overall responsibility for pollution,
oil on water is effectively delegated to the Undersecretariat for
Maritime Affairs' Coastal Protection and Emergency Action
Department.) METU's Besiktepe said that the new BTC port facility
at Ceyhan had equipment and trained personnel that could offer help.
They have worked together with the GOT on joint drills. BP told us

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that the BTC equipment was limited to "tier one", meaning intended
for immediate response to an isolated tanker spill, versus "tier
three" - a larger, dispersed oil spill - which would presumably be
the need if the Lebanon spill reached Turkey.


6. (SBU) A number of industry and NGO contacts pointed out that
Turkey's oil spill response structure is still new and untested as
the Maritime and Environment structures learn to work together. In
the event of a serious spill, Turkey would rely on the help of
industry and outside resources. Taylor said that expertise could be
available from a number of locations, but the closest significant
stock of emergency equipment was in the UK. He said that at the
time of the 1999 earthquake and damage to the Izmit Refinery, BP
mobilized expertise and equipment from the UK to respond.

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RISK TO WILDLIFE
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7. (SBU) A reputable Turkish environmental NGO "Doga Dernegi" told
us that a potential oil spill in Turkey's Mediterranean coast would
affect large areas and a number of species. He pointed out that
Iskenderun Bay was a significant habitat for Mediterranean (Ak
Deniz) seals and the Seyhan-Ceyhan and Goksu Deltas were major
migratory stops for rare birds. The NGO rep admitted that there was
weak cooperation and preparation among environmental NGO's.

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COMMENT: OUTSIDE HELP WOULD BE NEEDED
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8. (SBU) Comment: Given U.S. global leadership in oil spill
response, USG assistance in organizing a response, potentially
calling on U.S. assets and experts, could be useful in the event
that oil reaches Turkish shores. Post will keep abreast of
developments and reach out to the Department as necessary.

WILSON