TURKEY: POLITICAL FALLOUT FROM BIRD FLU LIKELY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 000453

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/03/2016
TAGS: PGOV ECON TU TBIO
SUBJECT: TURKEY: POLITICAL FALLOUT FROM BIRD FLU LIKELY
LONG-TERM

REF: ANKARA 206

Classified By: Ambassador Ross Wilson, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d)


1. (C) Summary and comment: The Turkish Government has
handled its Avian Influenza (AI) outbreaks well, blunting
criticism from the opposition. The GOT has also taken some
political risks. Possible long-term effects of AI could be
both positive and negative, depending on how successful the
government is in meeting constituent needs. They include:

--Turkey leveraging its newfound AI expertise both in the
region, and possibly in Europe;

--Positive GOT experience in interagency cooperation and
transparency that it should replicate at home in other areas;

--Significant lifestyle changes for the tens of thousands of
families who depend on their few backyard chickens, which
could translate into vote losses for the ruling Justice and
Development Party (AKP);

--Financial upheaval for all connected to the poultry
producing sector; and

--A possible GOT realization of the need for greater Kurdish
language broadcasting to help educate many in the
underdeveloped east and southeast - a project that could reap
substantial political dividends, but is unlikely in the
near-term. End summary and comment.


2. (SBU) The Turkish Government has dealt with its broad
Avian Influenza (AI) outbreak expeditiously and transparently
in the eyes of international experts, including the U.S. AI
team. Positive statements by the WHO, EU and U.S. teams on
the GOT's response - coupled with a lack of new human cases -
likely helped blunt early domestic criticism that the GOT was
late off the mark. The opposition, sensing it was gaining no
ground here, moved on to more fruitful "bash the government"
pastures.

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The Downside ...
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3. (C) The real consequences of AI in Turkey will have
political and economic elements that will become apparent in
the longer term. The Turks have culled over 1.5 million
birds. Most of these were so-called backyard chickens, i.e.,
the few chickens families traditionally maintain to keep them
in eggs and protein - a practice that is centuries old. It
is a lifestyle that the Health Minister, visiting the home
town of the first human victims, stated publicly should be
relegated to history. The few Turkish lira these families
are to receive in exchange for their culled chickens will not
long keep them in eggs. For the most part, these are poor
people, just scraping by, and this represents a real
hardship. If the GOT and/or local government fail to provide
alternatives and targeted development plans (Health Minister
Akdag has proposed covered village shelters where chickens
could be raised),the ruling Justice and Development Party
(AKP) risks losing many voters to nationalist and/or
conservative parties that have traditionally wooed the
agricultural vote. An AKP Vice Chair denied that AI would
cost the party agricultural votes, adding that the TL 3 per
bird the government was offering was sufficiently generous
that some unscrupulous farmers were killing healthy birds for
compensation.


4. (SBU) The economic pain is real, and not just for the
backyard farmers. With poultry consumption down as much as
90% countrywide, everyone along the large-scale chicken
production chain is suffering. Many, especially those
involved in production, could lose their jobs and an entire
industry could be crippled, increasing AI's impact on the
economy. Politicians realize this, and can regularly be seen
on TV, chowing down on chicken, to try to lure back
consumers. Since many aren't eating chicken, anecdotal
reports indicate that fish and meat consumption are up.
ConGen Istanbul reports that fish prices have tripled in some
places as a result.


5. (SBU) The government is also deeply concerned that AI
reports could affect tourism. An AKP contact told us that,
as yet, there has not been no impact, but it is too early to
tell (see reftel).

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... and the Potential Upside
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ANKARA 00000453 002 OF 002



6. (C) The AI outbreaks have some potential silver linings
as well. The effective performance by governments at the
national and local levels should have won points. The GOT,
provincial governors and local officials have been
transparent, creative, welcoming of foreign assistance, and
unusually effective. The GOT's response has highlighted that
interministerial cooperation - usually a rarity in Turkey -
works; it has not been perfect, but much more cross-cutting
and comprehensive than normal. Turkish officials have also
gained expertise. And since migratory birds don't recognize
international borders, the GOT is in a position to assist,
share lessons learned and serve as a model in the region. As
the EU has helped Turkey, Turkey may, in this case, also be
in a position to help the EU.


8. (C) The GOT could potentially draw at least one other
lesson from AI: in addition to the need for more effective
development efforts in relatively backward areas of the
country, communication is key. With limited means to
broadcast effectively in Kurdish, the GOT was hamstrung in
its efforts to reach illiterate citizens in the east and
southeast. GOT nemesis ROJ-TV, broadcasting from Denmark,
produced public service announcements in Kurdish, according
to a reliable Embassy contact. This realization might help
nudge the naysayers in Turkey one step closer to opening up
real Kurdish broadcasting that could help educate
Kurdish-origin citizens throughout Turkey and reap the
government many dividends.
WILSON