TFLE01: TURKISH DEBATE INCREASINGLY CRITICAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 004331

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR TASK FORCE ONE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/28/2026
TAGS: PROV PREL PTER TU IS LE
SUBJECT: TFLE01: TURKISH DEBATE INCREASINGLY CRITICAL

REF: ANKARA 004236

Classified By: DCM Nancy McEldowney, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Reactions in Turkey to the conflict in the
Middle East continue to focus on humanitarian needs and the
requirement for an immediate ceasefire, with commentary, both
in the media and from our contacts, increasingly critical of
both Israel and the U.S. Many have linked Secretary Rice,s
statement on the need for a &New Middle East8 to the
Broader Middle East North Africa initiative (BMENA),which
they fear could result in the redrawing of their own borders.
There is almost no focus on the real face of Hizbullah and
Hamas; the issue is seen as one of failed policies, rather
than of terrorist organizations. End summary.

Initial Humanitarian Focus
--------------


2. (SBU) Turks see daily in TV and newspapers the bloody
images of Lebanese civilian casualties. On July 25, Vatan
newspaper,s front page juxtaposed two pictures -- one of
wounded civilians in Lebanon, the other of Israelis
sunbathing on a Mediterranean beach. PM Erdogan,
vacationing, told the press the conflict had started with the
Israeli "martyring" of seven children. To date, much of the
story has been humanitarian, with a focus on Israeli
firepower and little analysis of what Hizbullah and Hamas
represent.

Shifting to Anti-Israel, Anti-US, Anti-BMENA
--------------

3.(C) The tone of the press has begun to shift, with
columnists refocusing on what they believe Israel, on the one
hand, and the U.S., on the other, are trying to accomplish.
The most extreme of the Islamist press has honed in on
Israel. One columnist in Milli Gazete, the mouthpiece of the
Islamist Saadet Party (SP),wrote that the sole aim of the
Israeli attacks on Hamas in Gaza and Hizbullah in Lebanon was
Islam. Israel, he added, was not the only state at war with
Islam; the U.S. was as well, as illustrated by the ultimate
goals of BMENA.

4.(C) The more moderate/secular press has latched on to
BMENA, a theme PM Erdogan raised at the outset of the
conflict. Turkish suspicions of BMENA,s "real" goals have
resurfaced, with columnists now linking BMENA to the
Secretary,s statement on the need for a "new Middle East".

SIPDIS
Illustrating age-old Turkish paranoia about potential
division of Turkey, an earlier story resurfaced, based on a
Ralph Peters (U.S. military, retired) redrawing of the map of
the Middle East, published in the private "Armed Forces
Journal". A number of our English-speaking contacts were
surprised to learn that this was not an official USG
document. Republican People,s Party (CHP) vice chairman, MP
(and former ambassador) Onur Oymen, stretching to connect all
the dots, claimed at a press conference that Secretary Rice
wants to "change the political geography" of the Middle East.


Skepticism of International Efforts
--------------


5. (SBU) Initial positive coverage of FM Gul,s participation
in the Rome conference to discuss a cease fire and solution
to the Israel/Lebanon crisis soured when no plan emerged for
an early ceasefire. One paper headlined, "The Mountain Gave
Birth to a Mouse." A columnist in the Gulenist paper "Zaman"
compared the situation in the Middle East to Bosnia: In
Bosnia, the EU had lost credibility; the same was now true
for the Middle East with respect to those who participated in
the Rome conference -- their credibility was on the line.
Opinions are split, however, reminiscent of the run-up to the
Iraq war: another columnist in secular "Hurriyet" viewed
with disdain PM adviser Davutoglu,s policy of strategic
dialogue which he judged had led Turkey into a foreign
relations quagmire. The possibility of participating in a
peacekeeping operation in Lebanon could, he posited, help put
Turkish foreign policy back on the right track.


6. (C) The possible participation of Turkish troops in a
Lebanon peace-keeping operation (PKO) is also seen through a
domestic lens. Opposition head Deniz Baykal, who opposes
everything (including the March 1, 2003 northern option),
came out against it. Islamists worry about getting on the
wrong side of Syria and Iran. One columnist cynically
wondered if the newfound U.S./Iraqi resolve to help fight the
terrorist PKK might dissolve once Turkey agrees to
participate in such a mission.

Tough to Defend U.S., Israel
--------------


7. (C) Our contacts have pointed to the need for a ceasefire
and a swift start to humanitarian assistance. Murat Mercan,
an MP from the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP),
told us that while he has sympathy for Israel,s security
plight, he personally could not understand Israel,s use of
such overwhelming force. It has become very difficult to
defend Israel or the U.S., he added, because of Secretary
Rice,s statement that we should not call for a ceasefire too
soon. This is a humanitarian issue, but it is also necessary
to defend the rights of Palestinians and Lebanese. The
current conflict should never have started; the priority now
should be an immediate ceasefire.

8.(C) Mercan recognized that there was debate as to whether
Hizbullah would cast an early ceasefire as a victory. There
is no question in his mind, however, that the current
conflict is only increasing support for Hizbullah and Hamas.
If extremists such as Hizbullah and Hamas made gains in the
time that led up to this conflict, he noted, then the
policies that led up to that must be examined. If you exert
hardship on a society, he stated, radicalization increases.
FM Gul echoed one of Mercan,s points in a statement
post-Rome, saying, with respect to the Secretary,s comments
on the new Middle East, "This cannot be achieved by force.
Regional stability can be ensured with participation of all
nations. We are seeing the results of earlier impositions
and the mistakes made in the past."


9. (C) Turkish nationalist contacts, such as Nationalist
Action Party (MHP) members Dr. Umut Ozdag and Dr. Riza Ayyan,
supported Israel,s right to self defense in conversations
with us, but emphasized the importance of minimizing
casualties. Sadi Kunderoglu, a strong secularist who works
as a foreign policy advisor for AKP, noted that there have
been only a few, relatively small protests against Israel in
the past few weeks because, in his view, Turks care more
about the plight of their fellow citizens than they do about
Arab Muslims. Bilkent University International Relations
professor Hasan Unal, who portrays himself to us as the voice
of Anatolia, told us that Turks naturally side with the
"underdog" and that is why their sympathies are with the
Lebanese people and not Israel.


10. (C) Comment: The longer the Lebanon conflict, the more
public opinion in Turkey will heat up. The U.S., including
the Secretary,s efforts, continues to be closely associated
with Israeli actions, a perception unlikely to change. Views
here may gain nuance if Turkey participates in a PKO and/or
humanitarian assistance efforts, but even that can and will
be used by the opposition -- SP on the Islamist flank and CHP
on the left -- as a reason to protest.

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/

WILSON