TURKS POSITIVE ON GAMBARI BREAKTHROUGH; STILL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 004077

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/11/2021
TAGS: PREL TU CY UN
SUBJECT: TURKS POSITIVE ON GAMBARI BREAKTHROUGH; STILL
CAUTIOUS ON PORTS

REF: NICOSIA 1088

Classified By: DCM Nancy McEldowney, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d)


1. (C) Summary: The Turks have welcomed the weekend
breakthrough by D/SYG Gambari, and they have taken on board,
gradually, the need to use the weekend agreement as a
springboard for further actions. The GOT stressed with
Ambassador and visiting EUR DAS Bryza the need for some
measure to reduce Turkish Cypriot (TC) isolation. This, they
hope, would give them sufficient political cover to open at
least some ports and avoid a fall EU accession train wreck.
End summary.


2. (C) The progress that D/SYG Gambari achieved July 9 with
Greek Cypriot President Papadopoulous and "TRNC" leader Talat
(reftel),and EUR DAS Matt Bryza's visit to Ankara afforded
us ample opportunity to talk to the Turks. Even before the
weekend, in separate meetings with D/US Apakan and the Cyprus
desk, we sensed a shift away from "we can,t" and toward a
more constructive attitude than we have seen of late.


3. (U) Publicly, the GOT has welcomed the weekend
breakthrough. Responding to a question, MFA spokesman Namik
Tan stated:

"We regard the meeting of the two leaders in Cyprus as a
positive step. We believe that the technical committees ...
will contribute to an atmosphere of confidence between the
two sides. We think the consultations on issues related to a
comprehensive solution should be taken up on the basis of the
UNSYG,s Comprehensive Solution Plan (Annan Plan). We share
and support the views and elements mentioned in the statement
of 'TRNC President' Mr. Talat in his press conference
following the above mentioned meeting."


4. (C) In the few days since the meeting on the island, GOT
views have evolved gradually. They state in private, as in
public, that they are fully supportive of the UN process, of
Gambari, and of Talat's forward-leaning posture. Apakan told
the Ambassador over the weekend that, in fact, the GOT hardly
needed to lean on Talat; he was forward-leaning of his own
accord.


5. (C) Apakan,s initial response, per British Ambassador
Westmacott, was that the progress now meant the Turks had
more space and could sit pat. Westmacott responded that
exactly the opposite was true: the Turks needed to take the
opening to get a step ahead and show their goodwill. When
Bryza met with Apakan later that same day, Apakan's thinking
had evolved to an understanding that the weekend agreement
puts Cyprus back in the UN framework, precisely what the
Turks want. "Annan Plan" may no longer be the operative
term, but as long as it forms the basis, the Turks appear
grudgingly to have agreed to look past language. Now Turkey
was seeking to ease the isolation of the Turkish Cypriots, a
point all Bryza's contacts -- at MFA, the NSC, and at the
PM's -- singled out as their most important short-term goal.


6. (C) Bryza pressed Apakan, other MFA officials, NSC SecGen
Ambasador Alpogan and PM advisor Ahmet Davutoglu to be
forward-leaning and produce a gesture to keep Turkey one step
ahead. Bryza recognized that the Turks need something to
ease the TCs' isolation and give them the domestic political
cover to open at least some ports, thus avoiding a fall train
wreck in their EU accession negotiations. Outgoing NSC
SecGen Alpogan appeared the most forthcoming, but of those
who wield real policy influence, Davutoglu appeared
receptive, and Apakan gradually gained ground.


7. (C) The general outline exists -) de-isolation of the
TCs, opening of Turkish ports to Cypriot shipping. There is,
however, little consensus within the GOT on (1) what would
constitute sufficient easing of TC isolation, and even less
consensus on (2) what easing of TC isolation would open the
door for the Turks to do. Possibilities discussed for easing
TC isolation include:

--Direct flights, possibly charter, to Ercan airport. Apakan
referred to direct charter flights from the UK, though
Westmacott indicated that was tangled in bureaucracy. MFA
officials mentioned charter tourist flights from Israel, or
even cargo flights.

--The opening of Famagusta port, which Bryza explored, under
some form of joint UN/EU oversight, with customs duties going
straight to Brussels. The specific modalities were not
discussed, but interlocutors were moderately receptive and
this is on the Turkish radar screen.


ANKARA 00004077 002 OF 002


--Resurrecting the EU trade regulation in some form.
Westmacott indicated the UK was sounding out contacts in
Brussels on this, but also noted that, were the EU to
succeed, the Turks would need to be prepared to accept
language that, two years ago, they would not have swallowed.
Turkish contacts stressed that an EU trade regulation would
both give them sufficient domestic cover, and restore EU
credibility here on the ground.


8. (C) The Turkish response to any of these solutions would,
Bryza emphasized, need to be the opening of ports. If events
were to be sequenced, the Turks could consider "temporarily"
opening ports for a set period (perhaps two years),provided
the trade regulation is forthcoming. Westmacott endorsed
this approach as well with the Turks. He also noted that he
was using all available channels to send PM Erdogan the
message to stop boxing himself in with uncompromising public
language. (Note: Erdogan has repeatedly stated -- albeit
not since this past weekend -- that the GOT can do nothing
else until TC isolation ends. End note.)

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/

WILSON