A/S BOUCHER CONSULTS WITH TURKEY ON CENTRAL ASIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ANKARA 003617

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/15/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL EPET TU ZK
SUBJECT: A/S BOUCHER CONSULTS WITH TURKEY ON CENTRAL ASIA
AND AFGHANISTAN

REF: ANKARA 3371

Classified By: AMBASSADOR ROSS WILSON FOR REASONS 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: As follow-up to Secretary Rice,s April
commitment to FM Abdullah Gul to embark on expert
consultations as part of new U.S.-Turkey strategic dialogue,
Assistant Secretary Richard Boucher consulted with Turkish
Officials on June 14 on Central Asia and Afghanistan.
Turkish and U.S. officials noted they shared a vision for
commitment to regional cooperation and integration,
democratization, education, and counter-narcotics. Turkish
officials admitted that they faced similar (to the U.S.)
challenges in dealing with Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.
Turkey is making a substantial contribution to reconstruction
and security in Afghanistan. End Summary.

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Consultations for Strategic Dialogue
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2. (C) On June 14 A/S Richard Boucher, DAS John Gastright,
Ambassadors Jacobson (Ashgabat),Hoagland (Dushanbe),and
Ordway (Almaty),and SCA Special Assistant Hayden,
accompanied by Ambassador Wilson and Embassy Ankara staff,
met a team of Turkish officials led by Deputy U/S Ahmet
Uzumcu for consultations on Central Asia and Afghanistan. At
the end of the consultations, the U.S. delegation also met
with Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul to brief him on this first
concrete outcome of the Secretary's and his commitment to
commence expert consultations under a new strategic bilateral
dialogue.


3. (C) A/S Boucher opened the discussions by stressing our
shared vision of supporting democracy and prosperity in
Central Asia. Recognizing strong ties with Turkey,
historical linkages to Russia, and opportunities with China,
Boucher called for countries in the region to maintain
diverse and non-exclusive options, rather than a sole focus
on east-west connections. He said that education was the
foundation for economic development and democratization.
Describing the region as &two pillars (Kazakhstan and India)
and a pivot (Afghanistan)8, Boucher stressed that success in
Afghanistan was dependent on integration both north and south.

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Regional Energy ) North-South and East-West
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4. (C) Noting his participation the day before in the
Central Asia Power Forum in Istanbul, Boucher stated that the
discussions on energy linkages had moved beyond &lines on
the map8 to specific transmission lines and tariff and
customer arrangements. As a sign of commercial momentum, he
cited the agreement signed with AES for a feasibility study
for power projects in Tajikistan which could contribute to
export of excess power from Kazakhstan and Tajikistan south
to Afghanistan and South Asia. Noting that road and trade
linkages were under-developed, Boucher cited activities of
the Asian Development Bank as important. Ambassador Ordway
mentioned trans-Asia road and rail projects in Kazakhstan,
emphasizing the need for greater attention to customs and the
&software8 of trade, as well as the "hardware".


5. (C) In response to a question from Dep U/S Uzumcu,
Boucher affirmed that the north-south regional focus did not
put in question continued U.S. support for the east-west
energy corridor; rather, it was about leveraging diverse
options to build countries, sovereignty and independence.
Both sides cited completion of Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil
pipeline and progress on Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipeline as
tremendous accomplishments and highly symbolic of the
continued commitment to east-west transit. Boucher cited the
example of Kazakhstan renegotiating its gas contract with
Gazprom as a small victory for empowerment based on having
options.

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6. (C) Citing questions about Turkmenistan,s capacity and
willingness to be a connection for a prospective
trans-Caspian pipeline for gas, Boucher saw Kazakhstan as
holding much higher near-term potential for a pipeline, as
well as a separate oil linkage to Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan. He
stated that the U.S. Trade and Development Agency (USTDA)
would soon announce funding for a feasibility study for a
pipeline across the Caspian for gas from Kazakhstan. Both
sides agreed that realizing a trans-Caspian pipeline would
require strong support from the U.S. and Turkey. Ambassador
Jacobson noted that Turkmenistan might be able to link later
into a Kazakhstan pipeline. She said that Turkmenistan to
date was unwilling to be open about its reserves and was
susceptible to pressure from Gazprom.


7. (C) Turkish Energy Coordinator Mithat Balkan stated that
there was a convergence of U.S. and Turkish regional energy
policy. He worried, however, that there might still be
confusion about north-south linkages competing with or
diverting from the east-west energy corridor. Balkan called
for clear support from the U.S. for the East-West corridor
(also plugging high level U.S. support at the
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan inaugural on July 12-13). Balkan
emphasized that Russia was putting pressure on all countries,
including Turkey, to fill pipelines with Russian gas, thereby
excluding Caspian gas. Ambassador Ordway pointed out that
Russian leverage was reduced because its developable reserves
were dwindling; Balkan insisted that this made Russian
pressure more &desperate8.

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Central Asia
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8. (C) Director General Resit Uman emphasized the overlap of
U.S. and Turkish policies in the region. He said that Turkey
fully supported integration and cooperation and promoting
political and economic reform. Uman cited Turkey,s
historical and special ties to the region. He emphasized
that each country had its specific characteristics, so a
monolithic approach was impossible. Uman admitted that
Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan were difficult and autocratic,
but noted that Turkish companies have still been very
successful in both, especially in Turkmenistan. He also
asserted that Turkey,s Central Asia policy had become more
focused on democratization after 2003, consistent with its EU
accession.


9. (C) Accepting Boucher,s point of the critical importance
of education, Uman stated that Turkey,s schools had been
important in the region, even those associated with
&foundations8 which still provided a modern and high
quality education sought out by the local elite (apparently a
reference to Fethullah Gulen Islamic schools). Uman said
that Turkey provided significant training and scholarships to
the region. The Turkish side also cited activities of the
Turkish Cooperation and Development Agency TIKA (comparable
to USAID) in the region.


10. (C) Boucher also stressed the need to focus regional
efforts on information (as almost all media comes from
Russia),technology, and media. He also noted that Turkey,s
success on counter narcotics could be particularly relevant
for Afghanistan and Central Asia.

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Kazakhstan and OSCE
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11. (C) In response to a question on Kazakhstan,s quest for
OSCE Chairmanship in 2009, Boucher said that the chair had to
meet the high standards of the organization. The question is
how and when Kazakhstan would do that. The Secretary has not
been able to certify Kazakhstan,s progress on human rights
and democratic reform to our own Congress, so it is unlikely

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it will achieve the standards by 2009. Nevertheless, we are
talking with Kazakhstan about this and have asked them to
identify the steps they will take to reach acceptable human
rights standards.

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Afghanistan
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12. (C) In both the meeting with Foreign Minister Gul and
the general session, which included military (TGS) and
intelligence (TNIO) officers, the Turkish representatives
stressed the long and special relationship Turkey has with
Afghanistan. Turkey has pledged $100 million to
Afghanistan,s reconstruction, twice led ISAF in Afghanistan,
and has taken over joint command of Kabul Central Command.
It will establish a Provincial Reconstruction Team in Wardak
later this year. Gul said the Afghan leadership is making
progress, but must start to do more on their own, noting the
foreigners will not always be there.


13. (C) Boucher stated that the perception that the security
situation in Afghanistan is deteriorating was not accurate.
Rather, it was an inevitable consequence of the extension of
the central government out to the borders, resulting in more
conflict and &testing8 from criminals, warlords and the
Taliban. He said that the Taliban, using money from
narcotics, had adopted new tactics. Boucher also emphasized
that expansion of government must mean the extension of good
government. He cited recent replacement of police chiefs by
better, albeit not perfect, personnel. Boucher argued
against the local misperception on the ground that NATO was
not as good as the Americans, asserting that there was no
change in the U.S. commitment to success in Afghanistan.


14. (C) Deputy Director General Babur Hizlan voiced support
for these objectives, but called for keeping the current
levels of U.S. forces. He and the Coordinator for
Afghanistan Koray Targay provided a long list of Turkish
support and training in the sectors of health, education,
security, and infrastructure. They supported more investment
in roads and rails, such as the Ring Road, China-to-Turkey,
and Asia-Europe, as well as in the power sector.


15. (C) Boucher expressed appreciation for Turkey,s
contributions. He noted that the U.S. was dedicating $2-3
billion per year to security, anti-narcotics, governance, and
reconstruction. Citing the importance of both primary and
secondary road development (&good guys use roads8) for
augmenting government services, he called for more
international support for infrastructure. Boucher also
supported increased literacy and vocational training, noting
that Afghanistan had been one of the world,s poorest
countries in the 50,s, 60,s, and 70,s and then went
downhill for two decades.


16. (C) DAS Gastright echoed the observation that the
Taliban and other resistance was disparate and not
monolithic, consisting also of criminal elements that were
reacting to expansion of government control. He cited
Operations &Mountain Lion8 and &Mountain Thrust8 as
successful for expanding government control in difficult
areas in the east and south. Gastright emphasized that they
needed to counter misinformation on government control. He
also described efforts to increase roads and power
infrastructure, as well as efforts to improve provincial
governance and narcotics eradication, citing a fruit tree
project as a successful program.


17. (U) This message was cleared by Assistant Secretary
Boucher.


18. (U) Dushanbe Minimize Considered

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WILSON