CENTRAL ASIA CONSULTATIONS IN ANKARA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 003371

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR SCA A/S BOUCHER AND AMBASSADORS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/07/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL ENRG TU ZK
SUBJECT: CENTRAL ASIA CONSULTATIONS IN ANKARA

Classified By: Classified by DCM Nancy McEldowney for reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Embassy Ankara warmly welcomes the visit
of Assistant Secretary Richard Boucher and SCA Ambassadors to
Ankara for meetings with Foreign Minister Gul, Energy
Minister Guler, and Senior MFA officials following the USTDA
Regional Energy Conference in Istanbul. In addition to
helping build regional support for our policy agenda in the
region, your visit will be part of our new "strategic
dialogue" with Turkey that builds on the Secretary,s April
visit to Ankara. Turkey values its growing commercial and
political relations with its Turkic brethren states in
Central Asia. This summer, Turkey will share command of
ISAF-Central with France and Italy and open its first
Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) in Afghanistan. END
SUMMARY.

--------------
STRATEGIC DIALOGUE
--------------


2. (SBU) During her April 25 visit to Ankara, Secretary Rice
and Foreign Minister Gul agreed to formalize a regular series
of meetings to further our bilateral efforts on issues such
as Iraq, Iran, the Caucasus and Central Asia, among others.
As a majority Muslim country that straddles Europe and the
Middle East, Turkey shares a history and culture with many
countries of U.S. concern and is poised to increase its
constructive role in Iraq and Afghanistan and in the Broader
Middle East and North Africa (BMENA) initiative.

--------------
Central Asia
--------------


3. (SBU) With the break-up of the Soviet Union, Turkey
embraced the goal of building ties with its Turkic brethren
in Central Asia. Turkey prides itself on being first to
recognize and send high-level delegations to the newly
independent Central Asian states. Its dreams of leveraging
Turkic affinity for some sort of commonwealth and predominant
influence in the economic and political realms in these
states have been scaled back in light of the realities in the
region, but Turkey has persisted in efforts to develop its
relations. Turkey has organized regular Turkic summits, but
they have yielded few firm results. Turkey,s main concerns
) and areas of cooperation ) in the region are drugs,
terrorism, and radical Islam. Turkey follows the EU lead on
human rights issues and advocates gradual transition to
democracy by emphasizing economic development.


4. (SBU) After the demise of the Soviet Union, Turkey was
the first in providing substantial economic and development
assistance to the region. Turkey-Central Asia trade,
credits, assistance, and investment have all grown steadily.
According to the GOT, more than 1000 Turkish firms operate in
the region in the energy, telecom, textile, food, and tourist
sectors, with investments of over $3.5 billion. No one
Central Asian country makes Turkey,s trading partner top
twenty list, but the Turkic Republics (Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan)
collectively constitute a growing $2.7 billion two-way trade
and Turkish trade with the region far exceeds intra-region
Central Asian trade. Turkish firms are active in the
hydropower sector in Central Asia. Turkish investment and
trade have developed most quickly with the western, energy
rich Central Asian republics of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.
The Turkish International Cooperation Agency (TIKA) was set
up in order to provide technical assistance to Central Asian
Republics. Turkey has set up state-sponsored Turkish schools
and scholarships, but more numerous are the schools organized
in the region by religious leader Fethullah Gulen, who
currently lives in the United States.


5. (C) The Turkish military has told us that they are
concerned about drug flows and Chinese and Russian influence
in the region. Turkey also worries that radical Islam is a
growing negative influence in Central Asia. It is partly for
this reason that Turkey has continued to encourage Central
Asian governments to maintain strong relations with the west
and with NATO institutions. These efforts have met with only

ANKARA 00003371 002 OF 003


mixed success. Turkey is frustrated with developments in
Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan; one MFA interlocutor
characterized the former as "hopeless8 and the latter &can
go either way."


6. (SBU) The main working session of your consultations with
Turkey on Central Asia will be hosted by Ahmet Uzumcu, Deputy
Undersecretary for Bilateral Political Affairs (equivalent of
a State U/S),with responsibility for South and Central Asia.
The MFA proposes that the agenda for the session and working
lunch include:

-Recent political developments, assessments of regional
issues, and specific discussions on Turkmenistan and
Uzbekistan;
-South and Central Asia economic integration;
-Other energy cooperation and building linkages; and
-Security cooperation.

The Turkish MFA has proposed that DAS Gastright attend a
separate session focused on Afghanistan, but that can also be
a topic of the general session. You will also meet with the
Minister of Foreign Affairs (also Deputy Prime Minister)
Abdullah Gul and the Minister of Energy Hilmi Guler (not yet
confirmed).

--------------
Kazakhstan
--------------


7. (SBU) With respect to Kazakhstan, the GOT notes that
common historical and cultural ties have facilitated the
rapid development of bilateral relations and cooperation.
Turkey is the third largest investor in Kazakhstan, after
Russia and the U.S. The Turkish state oil company TPAO has
significant investments in Kazakhstan. Turkey and other
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline partners have actively
sought to establish a link with Kazakhstan,s significant oil
production. Kazakhstan is a potential source for
Trans-Caspian-Pipeline gas transit. Kazakhstan is Turkey,s
strongest trade partner in the region, with over $1 billion
in two-way trade. Turkey exports machinery, plastics, and
boilers to Kazakhstan; it imports copper, copper products,
and mineral fuel. Sixty percent of new construction in
Astana is being done by Turkish firms.

--------------
Turkmenistan
--------------


8. (SBU) Turkmenistan is another energy rich country that
has attracted Turkish investment, but in lesser amounts than
Kazakhstan. Turkey has called for revitalizing the
Trans-Caspian-Pipeline (TCP) for gas from Turkmenistan. The
earlier TCP project failed in 2001, although Turkey and
Turkmenistan still signed a fruitless take-or-pay gas import
contract. Turkish Calik Holding has been an active investor
in the textile, energy, and construction sectors in
Turkmenistan. About 10 percent of Turkmenistan,s GDP is
generated by Turkish firms. Turkey exports machinery, iron,
and steel to Turkmenistan and imports cotton and mineral
fuels. Turkey imports a modest amount of electricity from
Turkmenistan via Iran.

--------------
Other Central Asia Republics
--------------


9. (SBU) Turkey,s relations with Tajikistan have developed
more slowly because of internal conflict, less proximity,
fewer energy resources, and a largely Farsi speaking
population. Its trade relations are proportionally less
important than most of the other Central Asian republics.
Turkey exports carpets and soap to Tajikistan; it imports
aluminum and associated products. Turkey is interested in
hydropower projects in Tajikistan.


10. (SBU) Turkey is Uzbekistan,s primary trade partner, but
Turkey,s trade with Uzbekistan is also of modest
proportions, relative to Uzbekistan,s size. Turkey
perceives that preventing and eliminating threats like

ANKARA 00003371 003 OF 003


extremism, terrorism, and drug smuggling that Uzbekistan
faces are main topics in bilateral discussions.

--------------
Afghanistan:
--------------


11. (SBU) Turkey has twice successfully led the International
Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan, most
recently from February to August 2005. Later in 2006, it
will commence joint command of ISAF-Central in Kabul for a
two-year period and will open its first PRT in the
neighboring province of Wardak. PM Erdogan visited
Afghanistan in spring 2005 and subsequently increased
Turkey's pledged assistance ten-fold to $100 million. This
will be allocated in $16 million increments for five years to
build schools, hospitals, medical clinics and drinking water
wells throughout the country. Four hospitals have already
been constructed. The GOT provides counter-narcotics
training in Turkey to Afghan security forces and will
initiate such training in Afghanistan this year under the
auspices of the Wardak PRT. Additionally, Turkey staffs
teaching positions in and provides material assistance for
the Afghan military academy. President Karzai demonstrated
his gratitude for Turkey's assistance by participating in a
March counter-terrorism conference at Turkey's NATO Center of
Excellence for the Defense Against Terrorism.

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/

WILSON