Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06ANKARA3307
2006-06-07 07:58:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Ankara
Cable title:  

TURKEY AVIAN INFLUENZA: POULTRY SECTOR

Tags:  EAGR EAID TBIO AMED CASC KFLU SENV TU 
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VZCZCXRO0404
PP RUEHHM RUEHLN RUEHMA RUEHPB
DE RUEHAK #3307/01 1580758
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 070758Z JUN 06
FM AMEMBASSY ANKARA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6319
RUEHRC/USDA FAS WASHDC PRIORITY
INFO RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 5437
RUEHLN/AMCONSUL ST PETERSBURG 0049
RUEHVK/AMCONSUL VLADIVOSTOK 0091
RUEHVI/AMEMBASSY VIENNA 1572
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RUEHPH/CDC ATLANTA GA
RUEAUSA/DEPT OF HHS WASHDC
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 1481
RUEHAST/USOFFICE ASTANA 0101
RUEHZN/EST COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 ANKARA 003307 

SIPDIS

HHS FOR WSTEIGER/PBUDASHEWITZ
USAID FOR BLANCHET, TROSTLE AND CARROLL
FAS FOR ITP/MACKE/THOMAS/LEIER, CMP/MOLSTAD, FAA/DEVER
FAS PASS FSIS AND APHIS
VIENNA PASS APHIS
BRUSSELS PASS APHIS/FERNANDEZ
GENEVA PASS HEALTH ATTACHE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958:N/A
TAGS: EAGR EAID TBIO AMED CASC KFLU SENV TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY AVIAN INFLUENZA: POULTRY SECTOR
RECOVERING

Ref: (A) Ankara 1524 and previous, (B) Ankara 2708,
(C) State 67574

ANKARA 00003307 001.2 OF 004


UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 ANKARA 003307

SIPDIS

HHS FOR WSTEIGER/PBUDASHEWITZ
USAID FOR BLANCHET, TROSTLE AND CARROLL
FAS FOR ITP/MACKE/THOMAS/LEIER, CMP/MOLSTAD, FAA/DEVER
FAS PASS FSIS AND APHIS
VIENNA PASS APHIS
BRUSSELS PASS APHIS/FERNANDEZ
GENEVA PASS HEALTH ATTACHE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958:N/A
TAGS: EAGR EAID TBIO AMED CASC KFLU SENV TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY AVIAN INFLUENZA: POULTRY SECTOR
RECOVERING

Ref: (A) Ankara 1524 and previous, (B) Ankara 2708,
(C) State 67574

ANKARA 00003307 001.2 OF 004



1. (U) Summary. There have been no new AI cases in
poultry or on wild birds in Turkey since March 31, 2006.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the AI outbreak
was completely extinguished by April 24, 2006. The
Protection and Control General Directorate issued the
last follow up report to the OIE and EU on May 17, 2006.
Screening of village poultry has been terminated;
however, screening of industrial operations continues.
The Ministry of Health confirmed no human cases since the
January outbreak. End Summary.

--------------
General Avian Influenza Situation in Turkey
--------------


2. (U) The last reported case of Avian Influenza (AI)
in the poultry population was in Yozgat province on March
31, 2006. As of May 16, 2006, there have not been any
new AI cases reported. The Ministry of Agriculture and
Rural Affairs (MARA) finished culling in designated areas
throughout the country on April 24 and, as a result, all
quarantines and surveillance were lifted as of May 16,

2006. According to Turkish regulations, three weeks
after the last case is extinguished, the Ministry of
Agriculture can remove all quarantines and related
restrictions, once all culling has been completed.
However, restrictions related to banning of live bird
markets, selling of live birds, and hunting of wild birds
will continue indefinitely. Field surveillance is also
continuing, with random blood samples taken for at least
three additional months and monitoring of the results.
MARA's General Directorate for Protection and Control
issued its latest report to the OIE and EU with this
information on May 17, 2006.


3. (U) A total of 163 samples, 136 samples from

backyard poultry and 27 samples from wild birds, were
submitted to the regional laboratories for testing
between April 12 and May 12. A total of 134 (118 poultry
and 16 wild birds) tests were negative. Out of the same
total, 7 (1 poultry and 6 wild bird) samples could not be
processed. Seventeen poultry and 5 wild bird samples are
still under investigation. Screening of poultry in
villages has ceased. However, the periodic screening of
industrial poultry operations still continues. This
testing will continue indefinitely since Turkey is on
bird migratory routes.


4. (U) The Ministry of Environment and Forestry and the
Wildlife Society jointly carried out surveillance on
migrating birds during the outbreak with support from the
Dutch Embassy. Suspicious cases were reported to the
Ministry of Agriculture. The Ministry of Environment and
Forestry has been working on a project to observe bird
migrating routes and develop a National Bird Observation
System. They will complete this project and present to
the State Planning Organization for its finding during
the next couple of months. They hope the program will be
funded in the 2007 budget.

--------------
Broiler Sector
--------------


5. (U) Turkey's broiler sector has been hard hit by AI
since last October. Demand for poultry meat declined
nearly 90 percent shortly after the December outbreak
and, as a result, stocks increased to 100,000 MT, which
is quite unusual for this fresh/chilled meat market.
Prices were as low as YTL 1.50 per kilogram for whole

ANKARA 00003307 002.2 OF 004


birds at the height of the crisis. Demand started to
rebound in March and production started to increase. The
price of fresh meat increased to YTL 2.60 per kilogram of
whole bird. The cost of producing one kilogram of whole
chicken is about YTL 2.00. Thus, producers started to
make some profits. This encouraged producers to increase
their production and, as a result, prices again decreased
because of excess production. Current prices are around
YTL 1.60 per kilogram for whole birds. Broiler stocks
have not been totally eliminated and are currently
estimated at around 70,000 MT with stock prices at about
YTL 1.50 per kilogram.


6. (U) Turkey produced about 940,000 MT of broilers in
2004 and 960,000 MT in 2005. Some sector representatives
are projecting and hoping that broiler production in 2006
will be at similar levels to the year before or even
slightly better. On the other hand, others are not so
optimistic believing that broiler production in 2006 will
be about ten percent lower than the previous year.
Turkey is estimated to produce about 50,000 MT of turkeys
and 55,000 MT of spent hens and other poultry.

--------------
Layer Sector
--------------


7. (U) Turkey had about 43 million layers (including
about 14 million layer chicks) in 2005. The GOT issued a
decree on January 24, 2006 to cull all spent hens. A
total of 13.5 million industrial birds were culled in one
month. The total number of industrial layers is
currently estimated to be around 34 million (including 8
million layer chicks). Since a total of 13.5 million
layers were culled earlier, this number assumes that 4.5
million of layers were added to the total stocks after
the outbreak (43 minus 13.5 plus 4.5 equals 34). The GOT
also culled an additional 2.5 million birds in areas
where quarantine and surveillance programs were
implemented. It is estimated that there are a total of
20 million birds owned by villagers in Turkey. Villagers
outside of quarantine and surveillance zones continue to
keep their birds, but they were asked to keep them in the
cages. Those villagers whose birds were culled are
mostly buying meat and eggs from the markets. This
naturally caused a reduction in their consumption since
some of these villagers do not have easy access to the
markets and most of them do not have the financial
ability to buy as much as they consumed before.


8. (U) In March and April, the GOT paid nearly a total
of YTL 15 million (YTL 1.10 for each culled bird) or
about USD 1.1 million for all culled industrial layers.
The GOT also announced a support program on March 30,
2006 for slaughtering spent hens, which will be in effect
for three months. The GOT will provide YTL 0.30 per bird
slaughtered for producers and YTL 0.10 per bird for
slaughterhouses. It is estimated that about four million
spent hens will be slaughtered in a three-month period.
Total payments are expected to be about YTL 1.6 million
(or amount USD 1.1 million) once the program is completed
in July.


9. (U) The Turkish egg sector suffered from the AI
crises longer than the broiler sector since large stocks
cannot be maintained. The sector had stocks of about 500
million eggs during the crisis. Egg prices decreased
from YTL 0.07 per egg to YTL 0.03 at the peak of the
crisis (all prices are those received by the producers).
Producers expected to lose YTL 1 million daily. Egg
prices increased gradually to about YTL 0.06 per egg
until mid April. Producers continued to lose money since
the cost of an egg was about YTL 0.07. After April 15,

ANKARA 00003307 003.2 OF 004


2006 (after all of the stocks were eliminated) egg prices
bounced back at around YTL 0.80 and producers started to
make some profit. Egg prices, however, decreased
slightly since then and are currently fluctuating around
YTL 0.07 and 0.075. Current domestic demand for eggs is
estimated on the average at around 140 million a week and
7.3 billion a year compared to 160 millin a week and 8.3
billion a year a year ago.

--------------
The Impact of AI on Red Meat and Fish Sectors
--------------


10. (U) The AI outbreaks occurred in the middle of the
fishing season. Turkish fishermen caught more than
normal levels of fish especially bonitoes and anchovies
last winter. This has reduced the problems related to
the protein availability for the consumers. Fish
consumption went up, and as a result, fish prices were
doubled. However, fish was still the cheapest source of
protein for most of the population since anchovies,
bonitos, and similar fish are usually inexpensive
compared to red meat during the winter months in Turkey.


12. (U) Red meat prices varied a lot during the crisis.
Red meat prices have been very high in Turkey in recent
years. The bovine meat prices went up as high as YTL
9.60 per kilogram of carcass weight during earlier stages
of the crisis, but dropped to the current levels of
around YTL 7.80 - 8.20 per kilogram of carcass weight,
which was about the same price prior to the outbreak.
Red meat prices have been rather stable since last April.

--------------
International Assistance
--------------


13. (U) The World Bank, EU, and FAO prepared assistance
programs related to the AI crisis in Turkey. The World
Bank coordinated an international assistance package that
included a $34.4 million World Bank loan to minimize the
threat posed to humans by AI in Turkey (Ref B). The loan
will support prevention, preparedness and planning as
well as response and containment of the disease. This is
World Bank's third AI operation in the Europe and Central
Asia region. The loan has a 15-year maturity and a 5-
year grace period. The loan will help finance activities
under three components: animal health, human health and
public awareness. USAID is contributing a total of USD 1
million to the package. Of this total, USD 750,000 will
be spent on restructuring the backyard poultry sector and
USD 250,000 will be spent on public awareness and
training for those in the backyard poultry sector.


14. (U) The European Union also provided a euro 10.4
million support program to strengthen laboratory
infrastructure and disease control. Of this, euro 6
million will be spent on supply materials for the
Ministry of Health, euro 2.2 million will be spent on
supply materials for the Ministry of Agriculture (on
buying laboratory equipments, test kits, etc.) and euro
2.2 million will be spent on technical assistance for
both Ministries. Of this total, the EU is providing a
grant for euro 8.35 million and urkey is providing euro
2.05 million (25 percent of the investment sections).
FAO also has a technical assistance project. One
international expert (epidemiologist from Northern
Ireland, UK) and one local expert (veterinarian from
Ankara) were hired for six months (March - September,
2006) for emergency assistance for the control and
prevention of AI. The allocated budget for the project
is USD 93,500.


ANKARA 00003307 004.2 OF 004



15. Dr Yildirim Bayazit from the Ministry of Health
confirmed to us that there had been no human cases of AI
since the January outbreak. He said a total of 1000
suspected cases from that time had been tested. He said
that screening and monitoring continued. (Note: Turkey
suffered a total of 12 WHO confirmed human cases and four
deaths in January. End Note.)

--------------
Comment
--------------


16. (SBU) Comment: One of the positive results from the
AI outbreaks is that the poultry industry was forced to
become more organized, more united and more proactive in
promoting its sector, especially the health benefits of
poultry. Producers with well-known brand names that
increased their investments in advertising campaigns and
marketing strategies benefited more than others. Banvit,
for instance, held 4.4 percent of the market before the
AI crisis. After a heavy marketing campaign in February
2006, Banvit's market share increased to 15.7 percent.
In total, all brand names in the poultry industry gained
40 percent of the market share after the crisis, compared
to 17 percent in October 2005. As a result of focused
advertising, consumers began to trust more in these
established facilities and switched to purchasing
properly packaged poultry by well-known brands.


17. (SBU) Comment: Turkey should be able to export
poultry to the EU at any time since the EU has approved
Turkey's residual control program. However, due to the
AI outbreaks, the Turkish poultry will have to wait six
months after the last outbreak before it is able to
resume exporting. Additionally, the poultry industry
representatives doubt that the EU will actually permit
poultry exports to resume until Turkey's bans on EU live
animal and meat are also lifted.
WILSON