TURKEY-GERMANY CONSULTATIONS ON IRAN, CAUCASUS AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 003006

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/25/2026
TAGS: PREL IR AR YI AJ TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY-GERMANY CONSULTATIONS ON IRAN, CAUCASUS AND
KOSOVO


Classified By: PolCouns Janice G. Weiner for reasons 1.4 (b,d).

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Summary
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1. (C) Turkish officials reportedly told visiting German
PolDir Schaefer that PM Erdogan had given Iranian President
Ahmadinejad the undiluted U.S./EU-3 message during their
recent meetings in Baku and Bali. The GOT is convinced Iran
seeks to develop a nuclear weapon and this is a threat to
Turkey. The Germans got the impression that: Turkey would
prefer to see direct U.S.-Iran talks, Turkey is not seeking a
mediating role, and Turkish officials are not confident the
U.S. will listen to its allies' counsel.


2. (C) Schaefer urged Turkish officials to considering
opening the Turkey-Armenia border in the context of a
Nagorno-Karabakh settlement. On Kosovo, Turkey accepts an
independence outcome but agrees with Germany that an
independent Kosovo should not be permitted an army or UN
membership right away. End Summary

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Iran
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3. (C) German Embassy PolCouns Helga Barth briefed us on
German MFA Political Director Michael Schaefer's May 16-17
consultations in Ankara. Schaefer held wide-ranging talks
with MFA Deputy Undersecretary Rafet Akgunay, and met as well
with PM Erdogan's diplomatic advisor Ali Yakital and ruling
AKP Vice Chair for foreign affairs Saban Disli. Schaefer
briefed the Turks on the latest EU-3 package of incentives
for Iran, describing it as "completely new, comprehensive,
and attractive." Disli asked about U.S. reaction to the plan
and Schaefer reportedly told him it enjoyed U.S. approval.
Disli assured Schaefer that, in PM Erdogan's recent meetings
with Ahmadinejad in Baku and Bali, Erdogan had not diluted
the U.S./EU-3 message on Iran but had delivered it with full
force. He said that Erdogan remained concerned that either
Iran or the U.S. could seek to escalate the conflict and that
Erdogan wants a meeting with President Bush in Washington to
convey his concerns.


4. (C) According to the Germans, D/US Akgunay told Schaefer
that the Iranian regime is totally focused on the U.S. and is
using the nuclear issue to solidify domestic support. The
Iranians cannot make concessions as they believe any
compromise will be followed by additional Western demands.
Akgunay said Larijani was extremely critical of the EU during
his April visit to Ankara, stating that the EU has cheated
Iran. Akgunay told the Germans the Iranians must not succeed
in their attempt to divide the international community,
particularly the Islamic countries from the West.


5. (C) Akgunay reportedly told Schaefer that the GOT is
convinced the Iranians want a nuclear weapon, as they
perceive they are now surrounded by U.S. allies, and stated
that the GOT views this as a serious threat to Turkey.
Meanwhile, U.S. intervention in Iraq has allowed the Iranians
to expand their influence throughout the region as never
before. The Turks see no viable military solution but
believe engagement with Iran and finding a means for Iran to
save face is the only reasonable strategy.


6. (C) Akgunay suggested to Schaefer that the GOT is not/not
confident the U.S. will listen to the advice of its allies
and avoid a military confrontation. PolCouns Barth said the
German side came away with the impression that the GOT would
like to see direct U.S.-Iran talks on the nuclear issue. The
Turkish side told them it has no ambition to take on a
mediating role in the dispute.

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Caucasus
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7. (C) In discussions on the aucasus, Akgunay assured
Schaefer that Turkey would continue to encourage Russian
helpfulness in dealing with Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and
Nagorno-Karabakh. Schaefer reportedly took the opportunity
to press Akgunay to consider opening its border with Armenia
as an incentive for Armenian agreement to an N-K settlement.
Akgunay responded that an N-K settlement would facilitate
negotiations on opening the border but that normalization of
Turkish-Armenian relations depends on progress on bilateral
issues.

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Kosovo

ANKARA 00003006 002 OF 002


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8. (C) Eastern Europe Department Head Hasan Asan reportedly
told Schaefer that Turkey expects independence for Kosovo but
is concerned about the effect on Serbia, especially following
the Montenegrin independence vote. In this light, the GOT
views direct Pristina-Belgrade talks as positive. With
Kosovo's ethnic Turk minority in mind, Asan added that Turkey
hopes the Kosovo constitution will acknowledge Kosovo's
multiethnic character. PolCouns Barth told us that, in a
separate conversation, Akgunay and Schaefer agreed that
regional stability would be best served if an independent
Kosovo is not permitted an army and UN membership in the
short term.

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/

WILSON