ERDOGAN GIVES SHAKY PERFORMANCE BEFORE EU

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 000287

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/26/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM OSCE PINR TU EU
SUBJECT: ERDOGAN GIVES SHAKY PERFORMANCE BEFORE EU
AMBASSADORS


Classified by Polcouns Janice G. Weiner; reasons 1.4 b and d.


1. (C) Summary: PM Erdogan, recovering from the flu, gave
what contacts described to us as a "rambling" and "nearly
incomprehensible" performance at a January 20 lunch meeting
with EU ambassadors in Ankara. After a positive though
unremarkable opening speech, he made a weak statement on
Iran, despite coaching from the UK ambassador. He then
claimed, incorrectly, that Avian Influenza (AI) is present in
several EU countries and launched into a diatribe on the PKK.
End Summary.

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PM Opens With Positive Speech
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2. (C) Several EU-member-state diplomats told us the meeting
started out well enough, with Erdogan reading a prepared
statement before TV cameras. In the statement, which our
contacts regarded as positive though unremarkable, the PM
stressed that the GOT is determined to carry on with reforms
and advance Turkey's EU accession negotiations. As regards
Turkey-EU relations, the PM said, "I personally see the glass
not only as half full but as gradually filling up. This is a
source of pleasure for me." He acknowledged that Turkey has
not reached the "ideal point" in the implementation of
reforms, but averred that greater progress will come as
individuals and institutions absorb the spirit of the recent
legal amendments.


3. (U) Erdogan pointedly stated that he expects the EU
screening process to be completed in 2006, and wants the EU
to open negotiations on the two acquis chapters that have
already been screened -- Science and Research, and Education
and Culture. He also called on the EU to seriously examine
the GOT proposal to simultaneously lift all restrictions
imposed on Cyprus and the "TRNC" and warned, "The EU
membership of the Greek Cypriot administration must not be
used as a pretext to stay mute on the intransigent attitude
of the Greek Cypriot leadership."

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Weak Statement on Iran
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4. (C) After the speech, the press departed and Erdogan began
a one-hour Q&A session during which contacts described him as
manic -- at times shouting -- and emotional. Contacts said
he appeared pale and exhausted; one of the PM's advisors told
us Erdogan had been battling the flu for several days. The
EU ambassadors made it clear that Iran is the top issue on
the EU foreign policy agenda. The UK ambassador, seated next
to Erdogan, tried to assist the PM by giving him an outline
of what the EU would like him to say on Iran. Nevertheless,
the PM gave what a Danish contact described as an
"exceptionally weak" statement. Erdogan explained that Iran
has assured Turkey its nuclear program is for peaceful
purposes, and said Iran has a right to develop such a
program. (Note: Similarly, Erdogan's chief advisor Avci told
us the previous day that he did not believe Iran is trying to
develop nuclear weapons. End Note.) If Iran develops
nuclear weapons, he continued, then Turkey would be concerned
and would start to take into account the attitudes of other
countries toward the Iranian program.

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Defensive Comments on AI...
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5. (C) Erdogan recapped steps the GOT had taken to combat AI
and pledged full transparency in the ongoing effort. He then
started to ramble, asserting that AI could afflict any
country, not just the developing world. He claimed AI is
present in the UK, the Netherlands, and Belgium, adding that
10 million chickens have been killed in the UK. After the
meeting, several ambassadors said privately that they were
shocked that the PM was so badly informed.

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...And the Kurdish Issue
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6. (C) The UK and Slovak ambassadors praised Erdogan for his
groundbreaking August speech in Diyarbakir, during which he
referred to Turkey's "Kurdish problem." They asked what
steps, such as economic development, the PM had planned to
follow through on the initiative for the southeast. This was
intended as a softball question from two sympathetic
ambassadors. Erdogan responded with a 15-minute diatribe on
the evils of the PKK. At one point, the PM lashed out at the
audience, yelling, "I don't care if the PKK is on the EU list
of terrorist organizations because you're not doing anything
about it." Several contacts told us that Erdogan, at this
and other points in the meeting, behaved as if he were trying
to score points with a domestic audience.

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Comment: Let's Hope It Was the Flu
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7. (C) We can only hope that Erdogan's politically tone deaf
performance was a one-off caused by a bout of the (non-avian)
flu, and that he will be more attuned to his audience the
next time he addresses an EU crowd.
WILSON