TURKEY/CANADA/FRANCE: TENSIONS OVER ARMENIAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 002800

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/17/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM CA AR FR TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY/CANADA/FRANCE: TENSIONS OVER ARMENIAN
GENOCIDE ISSUE

REF: ANKARA 2385

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Classified By: Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner for reasons 1.4 (b,
d).

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Summary
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1. (C) Turkey has reacted to Canadian PM Harper's recognition
of the Armenian genocide by pulling out of a joint military
exercise and officials have hinted further measures may be
taken against Ottawa. At the same time, French draft
legislation that would penalize denial of the genocide has
come under increasingly vocal criticism here. Should the
National Assembly approve the draft, officials and media
sources predict a backlash in Turkey which could include
large demonstrations, popular boycotts of French products, as
well as disruption of diplomatic and commercial relations
similar to those seen following the National Assembly's
recognition of the Armenian genocide in 2001. End Summary


2. (C) MFA Undersecretary Ali Tuygan told EUR AS Dan Fried
April 26 that passage of the French draft law would elicit a
strong public reaction in Turkey (reftel). In early May,
Turkey called its ambassadors to Canada and France back to
Ankara to discuss Turkey's response to Harper's April 19
statement and pending French legislation. According to MFA
Security Directorate official Nevzat Uyanik, Ambassador
Koruturk returned to Paris the week of May 8, while
Ambassador Erman remained a few days longer in Ankara.

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Turkey/Canada -- Damage Done
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3. (C) While he would not be drawn into specifics, Uyanik
said relations with Canada had been "severely affected" and
suggested that, in addition to withdrawing from the Maple
Flag military exercise, the GOT was considering other
measures against Canada which could be announced soon. He
reported that PM Erdogan had sent a letter to PM Harper
expressing the GOT's profound disappointment and received an
"unhelpful" response from Harper. A Canadian diplomat here
confirmed the downturn in relations and said Canadian
officials were waiting for the next shoe to drop.

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Turkey/France -- Damage Anticipated
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4. (C) At the same time, Turkey is anxiously awaiting a
possible May 18 vote in the French National Assembly on a
draft law prescribing criminal penalties for denying the
Armenian genocide. Uyanik told us that passage of the law
would portend a serious reversal in Turkey-France relations.
He compared the situation to the emotional Turkish reaction
to the National Assembly's passage of a genocide resolution
in 2001, which resulted in the recall of the Turkish
ambassador, interruption of military-to-military ties, and
sporadic boycotts of French products. French diplomats have
told us France also fears a reprise of the 2001 situation.
French and Turkish officials and press representatives with
whom we have spoken agree that passage of the bill could
easily crystallize mounting Turkish resentment over what most
Turks consider an unfair and humiliating EU accession
process, in which France's role has been seen as particularly
problematic.

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Intense Media Focus
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5. (C) The French draft law has dominated Turkish media for
the last two weeks. Commentators are predicting various
degrees of Turkish popular and official reaction if and when
the measure passes in the National Assembly, to include large
demonstrations (small protests have already taken place near
the French Embassy and Istanbul consulate),boycott of French
products, a freezing of bilateral military relations, and
French exclusion from official tenders. Our sources agree
that the fact that National Assembly approval of the
controversial draft is only the first step in a lengthy and
uncertain legislative process will be lost on an embittered
the Turkish public. They also agree that the Turkish

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government will be under huge pressure to react with, at a
minimum, symbolic diplomatic and economic sanctions against
France.

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Comment
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6. (C) We believe the GOT does not seek an escalation of
tensions over this issue, but it is not clear the government
has a game plan for controlling public resentment, and
pressure to act, should the French draft be passed. Already
in pre-election mode and with nationalism increasing, the GOT
has little room to maneuver on this sensitive "national
issue." A diplomatic row with France over this has the
potential to affect negatively Turkey's EU accession process
and could obstruct modest ongoing Turkey-Armenia contacts
over a mechanism for normalizing bilateral relations. End
Comment

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/

WILSON