SCENESETTER FOR MAY 7-8 VISIT OF CODEL PENCE TO

UNCLAS ANKARA 002416

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO H/BARBARA FLECK

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OREP TU
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR MAY 7-8 VISIT OF CODEL PENCE TO
TURKEY

REF: STATE 66587


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Your visit follows a successful visit by
Secretary Rice which paved the way for a new "strategic

SIPDIS
dialogue" with Turkey on issues of mutual import. Turkey is
a strong ally in the Global War on Terrorism (GWOT),
facilitating the distribution of critical supplies and fuel
to the coalition in Iraq and supporting the NATO Training
Mission (NTM-I) there; publicly calling on Iran to comply
with its IAEA commitments; and pressuring Syria and Hamas to
renounce their support for terrorism. This summer Turkey
will share command of ISAF-Central with France and Italy and
open its first Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) in
Afghanistan. But there are challenges. Bilateral defense
cooperation is on the decline. An increased Turkish security
presence along the Iraqi border to combat an up-tick in PKK
terrorist activity has raised concerns with the Iraqi
government and increased pressure for someone (US, Iraq, or
Turkey) to take action. Turkey's EU accession aspirations
are frustrated by slow implementation of reforms and the lack
of progress on Cyprus. You may wish to welcome their
partnership in GWOT and urge Turkey to stand firmly and
publicly with the international community on Iran, especially
as chief Iranian nuclear negotiator Larijani will also be
visiting Ankara May 8. END SUMMARY.

STRATEGIC DIALOGUE
--------------


2. (SBU) During an April 25 visit to Ankara, Secretary Rice
unveiled with Foreign Minister Gul an agreement to formalize
a regular series of meetings to further our bilateral efforts
on issues such as Iraq, Iran, the Caucasus and Central Asia,
among others. As a majority Muslim country that straddles
Europe and the Middle East, Turkey shares a history and
culture with many countries of US concern and is poised to
increase its constructive role in Iraq and Afghanistan, in
the Broader Middle East and North Africa (BMENA) initiative
and potentially in the Middle East Peace Process. This will
also provide a forum to dialogue with Turkey on issues of
importance to its future, including Cyprus and the EU
accession process.

A PARTNER IN GWOT
--------------

Iraq:


3. (SBU) Turkey's agreement to allow the use of its territory
as a logistical hub has been a crucial asset in our Iraq
operations. Two-thirds of gasoline and diesel fuel shipments
(3 million gallons per day) for the Iraqi people and 25% of
sustainment fuel for the coalition crosses into Iraq through
the Ground Line of Communication at Habur Border Gate. Since
Turkey approved the use of Incirlik Air Base as a cargo hub
to support coalition operations in Iraq in May 2005, over 152
million pounds of equipment has been shipped to US troops.
Six C-17 aircraft now deliver from Incirlik the amount of
supplies it took 9-10 planes to deliver from Germany.
Additionally ten KC-135 tanker aircraft based at Incirlik
since 2003 have run 2800 refueling sorties, delivering 192
million pounds of fuel in support of Operation Enduring
Freedom and Operation Iraqi Freedom. Turkey has four
personnel assigned to NTM-I in Iraq and, under this rubric,
has trained 57 Iraqi military officers in Turkey. Iraqis
have pledged to send officers to at least seven additional
courses this year.


4. (SBU) Turkey shares the US goal of a unified, democratic
Iraq that is secure within it borders. While Kurdish
aspirations and the PKK presence in northern Iraq remain a
significant concern, the government is contributing to
efforts to ensure the success of the country as a whole. The
GOT vocally supported the participation of all ethnic and
religious groups in the elections and the constitution
referendum; and separately hosted a multi-party conference on
the Iraqi constitution, a dialogue of hard-line Sunni leaders
with US Ambassador Khalilzad, and a meeting of tribal leaders
from the city of Talafar in an effort to calm the situation
there. It provided extensive training to over 300 Iraqi
diplomats and political party members, and spearheaded a

"neighbors meetings" process which has helped Iraqi
government leaders interact with their regional counterparts.



5. (SBU) In addition to Turkey's desire for political
stability, a sovereign, stable Iraq is in Turkey's economic
interests. Bilateral trade in 2005 was $2.87 billion, of
which $2.42B was Turkish exports to Iraq. Turkey exports 270
MW of electricity to northern Iraq. Both countries aim to
increase electricity exports from Turkey to 1000MW, which
equates to 25% of Iraq's current peak capacity. Turkey has
pledged $50M in assistance to Iraq for energy, health and
other projects, which remains mostly unfunded for security
reasons. Turkey's port of Ceyhan is the terminus of the oil
pipeline from Kirkuk.

Afghanistan:


6. (SBU) Turkey has twice successfully led the International
Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan, most
recently from February to August 2005. Beginning in
mid-2006, it will share joint command of ISAF-Central in
Kabul for a two-year period, and will open its first PRT in
the neighboring province of Wardak. PM Erdogan visited
Afghanistan in spring 2005 and subsequently increased
Turkey's pledged assistance ten-fold to $100M. This will be
allocated in $16M increments for five years to build schools,
hospitals, medical clinics and drinking water wells
throughout the country. Four hospitals have already been
constructed. The GOT provides counter-narcotics training in
Turkey to Afghan security forces and will initiate such
training in Afghanistan this year under the auspices of the
Wardak PRT. President Karzai demonstrated his gratitude for
Turkey's assistance by participating in a March
counter-terrorism conference at Turkey's NATO Center of
Excellence for the Defense Against Terrorism.

Other:


7. (SBU) In addition to its efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan,
Turkey continues to contribute forces to the peacekeeping
efforts in the Balkans and provides training to Georgian
security forces, including for pipeline security. Turkey has
contributed $41M in equipment to Georgia over the past six
years, and has trained some 1400 Georgian personnel. In
Azerbaijan, Turkey has provided some $150M in equipment and
over $100M in training and facilities over the past six
years.

INCREASING PKK THREAT
--------------


8. (SBU) Since ending its self-imposed cease-fire in May
2004, the PKK terrorist group has stepped up bomb attacks in
Istanbul and increasingly clashed with Turkish security
forces in the country's southeast. A PKK off-shoot, the
Kurdish Freedom Hawks (TAK),has warned foreigners to stay
away from Turkey and threatened additional attacks in tourist
centers. The funerals of 14 PKK terrorists killed in a March
operation led to civil unrest in Diyarbakir and other
southeastern cities, which in several cases turned violent.
Televised news programs are filled with the funerals of
Turkish security forces. Tourism bookings are down from

2005.


9. (SBU) The PKK issue is the biggest irritant in bilateral
relations. The Turkish public and the GOT expect the US to
take action against the PKK in Iraq. The government welcomes
our efforts with European allies to eliminate the PKK's
financing sources and support networks in Europe and our
intelligence-sharing program, but both the GOT and the public
insist on US action against the PKK presence in northern
Iraq. While recognizing that the insurgency prevents
coalition troops from engaging the PKK in Iraq, the GOT
remains frustrated at its inability, and US unwillingness, to
stop attacks it believes are emanating from the other side of
its border.


10. (SBU) Security forces have had some success against the
PKK in Istanbul and Ankara, where significant caches of
plastic explosives were found and suspects arrested. The

early up-tick in terrorist activity in 2006 also hastened the
military's push to strengthen its troop presence along
Turkey's border with Iraq, as it does every spring. The
Turkish press speculates that Turkey is either already
conducting or will engage in cross-border operations into
northern Iraq where the PKK has a presence. The Chief of the
Turkish General Staff GEN Hilmi Ozkok and FM Abdullah Gul
have both publicly dismissed these reports and said that
Turkey is doing nothing more than protecting its sovereign
territory, as it does every year.

REGIONAL DIPLOMACY
--------------


11. (SBU) Given its shared historical, cultural and religious
ties with countries in the region, as well as its geographic
location bridging both east and west, Turkey feels both a
right and a responsibility to engage countries of concern on
issues of importance to the international community. Turkey
has worked hard in recent years to re-establish relations
with Iran and Syria both to bolster its fight against the
PKK, which has a presence in those countries, and to
strengthen its economic ties. It also believes that, as the
only Muslim country that has good relations with both Israel
and the Palestinians, it can play a special role in the peace
process. Despite Western disapproval, however, the FM,
representing the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP),
welcomed a Hamas delegation to Ankara, and the PM and FM
continue to engage the Iranian and Syrian governments. In
all cases, they assure us, they are sending the right
messages in private.


12. (SBU) The MFA, military and many in the AKP government
view a nuclear Iran as a threat to Turkey but all view
diplomacy as the only road to a solution and therefore insist
on engagement. The GOT is averse to broad economic sanctions
that could disrupt a growing commercial relationship with
Iran, particularly energy imports, but is willing to consult
with us on targeted financial sanctions. The government's
public statements -- which we are told match their private
statements -- on Iran's nuclear program have significantly
strengthened since Iran resumed uranium enrichment. You may
want to welcome these statements and to encourage a continued
strong message. This will be particularly important as
Iranian chief nuclear negotiator Larijani will be in Ankara
while you are here.

CYPRUS THREATENS TURKEY'S EU BID
--------------


13. (SBU) The EU has expressed frustration with what it
perceives as lackluster GOT efforts to fully implement
democratic reforms. Indictments against novelist Orhan Pamuk
and other writers and intellectuals for statements
purportedly undermining the Turkish identity, and unresolved
issues with Turkey's Kurdish population which are
exacerbating the PKK problem, give ammunition to those who
want to prevent Turkey's accession. But the lack of a
settlement of the Cyprus question may be the biggest
immediate threat to Turkey's EU bid. Turkey remains bitter
over the 2004 Greek Cypriot vote against UN secretary-general
Annan's plan for a comprehensive settlement and the lack of
measures to reward Turkish Cypriots for their favorable vote,
and continues to look to the UN for the way forward. Under
its EU customs agreement, amended in 2005 to expand to
include all new EU members -- including Cyprus, Turkey must
open its sea and airports to Greek Cypriot vessels. Turkey
is unwilling to do so in absence of some opening of Turkish
Cypriot ports and has put forward a proposal that would
include this. The lack of a deal could stall further EU
negotiations.

DEFENSE INDUSTRY COOPERATION DECLINING
--------------


14. (SBU) Defense industry cooperation, once the strongest
aspect of our military-to-military relationship, is in
significant decline. No US firm has won a direct commercial
sale since Boeing was awarded a contract for an Airborne
Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) aircraft in 2002. In 2004,
three tenders (UAVs, Main Battle Tanks, and attack

helicopters) were canceled. Two US firms, Boeing and Bell,
were interested in a second attack helicopter tender, but
declined to participate due to onerous liability and
technology transfer requirements. (Several non-US firms did
submit bids.) Sikorsky may choose not to participate in a
tender for 54 utility helicopters for the Turkish Armed
Forces and Forestry Service for the same reason, and Raytheon
may bow out of contention for an aircraft trainer tender.
Both in Ankara and in Washington, US firms and the USG have
raised the technology transfer and liability concerns with
Turkey's Ministry of Defense and Defense Industry
Undersecretariat (SSM). Despite both Turkish military and
government insistence that it wants US competition in these
tenders, SSM has resisted making the necessary changes to the
tenders to ensure it.

AGGRESSIVE COUNTER-NARCOTICS PROGRAM
--------------


15. (SBU) Turkey remains a significant transit country for
Southwest Asian heroin destined for European markets.
Turkish law enforcement vigorously pursues opiate traffickers
and have made extensive opiate seizures. Arrests resulting
from large seizures are prosecuted and generally result in
lengthy sentences. Over eight metric tons of heroin were
seized in Turkey in 2005, while nearly ten metric tons were
seized in 2004. Several of the world's largest verified
opiate seizures have been made in Turkey in recent years,
including 7.5 metric tons of morphine base that were captured
in a single seizure in 2002. In 2004, 4.4 metric tons of
morphine base were seized and in 2005 there were two heroin
seizures of over 1,000 kilograms each. Turkish law
enforcement is actively participating in DEA's Operation
Containment, a regional plan for combating Afghan opiates.

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/

WILSON