OPPOSITION, AMBASSADOR DISCUSS SARSENBAIULY CASE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ALMATY 000821

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/CEN (MUDGE); DRL/PHD (KUCHTA-HELBLING)

E.O. 190356: N/A
TAGS: PHUM PGOV KZ POLITICAL
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION, AMBASSADOR DISCUSS SARSENBAIULY CASE

REF: ALMATY 795
ALMATY 733
ALMATY 576
ALMATY 651 (NOTAL)
ALMATY 692 (NOTAL)
ALMATY 717 (NOTAL)


1. (SBU) Summary: In a March 2 meeting, opposition
leaders Oraz Zhandosov and Tulegan Zhakayev told Ambassador
that, while they could accept that the ten people arrested
thus far in the Sarsenbaiuly murder case (reftels) had been
involved in the crime, they did not believe that Senate
Administration Chief Yerzhan Utembayev had masterminded the
murder. The two leaders sought the Ambassador's assurance
that, from the USG's point of view, the investigation had
not been "wrapped up," and that the FBI remained open to
alternative hypotheses. Zhandosov and Zhakayev briefed the
Ambassador on the legal status of opposition leaders
sentenced to jail for their role in an "unsanctioned rally"
in Almaty on February 26, telling him that both the size
and the passion of the crowd had taken them by surprise.
Speaking of the President's May 1 Address to the Nation,
the two opposition leaders voiced concern that Nazarbayev
had listed "further democratization" as only his fifth
priority. End Summary.

Opposition Still Skeptical
--------------


2. (SBU) Ambassador met with "For a Just Kazakhstan"
leaders Oraz Zhandosov and Tulegan Zhakayev on March 2, two
days after both had been fined by an Almaty court for their
role in organizing an "unsanctioned" February 26
Sarsenbaiuly memorial/rally.


3. (SBU) Zhandosov told the Ambassador that, while he could
accept the idea that the ten men arrested so far in the
Sarsenbaiuly case had somehow been involved in the crime,
he still did not believe the Internal Affairs Minister's
"official version" that Utembayev had been the crime's
mastermind. Not only did Utembayev lack a motive,
Zhandosov said, but also he didn't have the "personal
characteristics" to order a murder. The men cast doubt on
the reliability -- and even on the existence -- of
Utembayev's alleged confession.


4. (SBU) Speaking of their May 1 call for the creation of a
State Commission to investigate the murder, Zhandosov told
Ambassador that he feared that, after identifying Utembayev
as the mastermind of the crime, the GOK had essentially
closed its investigation. The Ambassador assured the men
that the investigation was still ongoing, and that the FBI
was still engaged with the GOK, either to verify the
current hypothesis or "to find another." The Ambassador
told the men that, while the GOK had conducted a "very
professional" investigation so far, there was still work to
be done. The motive the investigators had advanced for
Utembayev's actions was logical, but not beyond doubt.
Zhandosov concluded by summarizing his opinion: the
investigators, he said, needed to discover "additional
layers" in the murder plot.

"The Biggest Demonstration in 20 Years"
--------------


5. (SBU) The men briefed Ambassador on the aftermath of the
February 26 memorial for Sarsenbaiuly in front of the
Academy of Sciences. The gathering turned into a
spontaneous march and subsequent rally on the Republican
Square in response to what appeared to a deliberate attempt
by officials to disrupt the event by playing deafening
music. Zhandosov and Zhakayev admitted that they had been
surprised by the size and the passion of the gathered
crowd. Unlike the Sarsenbaiuly funeral in early February,
this gathering had had a clear political dimension. The
crowd's decision to move to Republic Square rather than
being cowed by heavy handed attempts to drown out the event
was also significant. Although the police attempted to
block the crowd's access to Republican Square, they did not
use force. Once on the Republican Square, Zhandosov
explained, various political leaders, led by Communist
Party chief Serikbolsyn Abdildin, had taken advantage of
circumstances to make fiery anti-government remarks.


6. (SBU) Eleven opposition leaders were subsequently
charged with having organized an illegal rally. On
February 28, an Almaty court sentenced six (Bulat Abilov,
Tolen Tokhtasynov, Asylbek Kozhakhmetov, Amirzhan Kosanov,
Marzhan Aspandiyarova, and Petr Svoik) to jail terms
ranging from 5 to 15 days, and fined five others
(Zharmakhan Tuyakbay, Gulzhan Tergaliyeva, Zauresh
Battalova, Zhandosov, and Zhakayev) from 30-50,000 tenge
($230 to $382) apiece.

Reflecting on Nazarbayev's Speech
--------------


7. (SBU) Zhandosov and Zhakayev told the Ambassador that,
in their opinion, the fact that Nazarbayev had listed
"further democratization" as only his fifth priority in his
May 1 Address to the Nation was significant. They
suggested that not even the pro-government press had
expected that there would be so little discussion of
political reform, and such a hard line taken on democracy.


ORDWAY