KAZAKHSTAN: BAYMENOV LOOKS TOWARD ASTANA

UNCLAS ALMATY 000079

SIPDIS


DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CACEN (JMUDGE)

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KZ POLITICAL
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: BAYMENOV LOOKS TOWARD ASTANA


1. (SBU) Summary: Unsuccessful Ak Zhol presidential
candidate Alikhan Baymenov is moving to reorganize his
party, with the goal of occupying the Mazhilis seat it won
in 2004 elections and engaging the GOK in discussion of
political reform. The party also intends to take part in
the Democratization Commission that President Nazarbayev has
promised to establish after the inauguration. Ak Zhol's
priorities are diversification of the mass media, reform of
Parliament, and reform of the judiciary. Baymenov says that
he will look to someone else in the Ak Zhol leadership to
represent the party in Parliament, raising the question of
whether he is angling for a GOK appointment in the
inevitable post-inaugural cabinet reshuffle. End summary.


2. (U) The Ambassador met with Ak Zhol presidential
candidate Alikhan Baymenov on December 29 in Almaty to
review the election campaign and discuss Baymenov's plans
for the future. POEC chief also participated.

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Presidential Elections
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3. (SBU) Baymenov commented briefly on the December 4
presidential elections, but clearly seemed more interested
in discussing the future. Noting that Ak Zhol had described
the elections as legitimate but not clean in its public
statement, Baymenov claimed that both turnout figures and
the vote total for Nazarbayev had been artificially inflated
through the use of administrative resources. Nazarbayev had
actually received 60-65% of the vote rather than 91%,
according to the challenger. In one precinct where according
to the official results only seven people voted for him,
Baymenov claimed that there were 50 people ready to testify
in court that they had cast their ballots for him.


4. (SBU) Baymenov told the Ambassador that in his home
village in the Zhezkazgan region, local authorities gathered
everyone together and threatened to close the primary local
employer, a Kazakhmys facility employing 200 people, if
local residents voted for Baymenov. He had not filed a
complaint because there was "no point."

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Ak Zhol's Plans for the Future
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5. (SBU) The leadership of Ak Zhol met in Astana on December
28 to agree on next steps, according to Baymenov. They
agreed to undertake a one-month review of the party's
program and relations with other parties and organizations.
They also agreed to reduce the number of paid staff.


6. (SBU) Following this review period, Ak Zhol intends to
cooperate with the GOK on reform, according to Baymenov.
The party will likely take the seat in the Mazhilis that it
won in 2004 parliamentary elections. Baymenov, who had been
first on the party list and had refused to take the seat due
to the GOK's failure to address procedural violations,
explained that the party leadership had agreed that it was
important to use the seat to initiate legislation and
advocate on behalf of constituents. Baymenov said that he
would probably not occupy the seat himself; any of the 13 Ak
Zhol leaders who had been on the party list and who remained
in the party would be eligible.


7. (SBU) Baymenov added that Ak Zhol will probably
participate in the Democratization Commission that
Nazarbayev had promised to establish following the
inauguration. He said that he himself had proposed the
idea of such a commission to Nazarbayev a year and a half
ago.


8. (SBU) Ak Zhol's priorities, according to Baymenov, will
be to push for de-monopolization of the mass media, reform
of the Parliament, and increased independence for the
judiciary. Judicial reform, possibly including the election
of some judges, would help address the problem of corruption
and impose increased responsibility on government officials
to perform their duties. He said that he was optimistic
about the prospects for reform of Parliament, given
Nazarbayev's statements about expanding the Mazhilis. Such
reform would increase the competition among parties, thereby
revitalizing the political environment and encouraging
companies to support political parties. Baymenov stated
that the Senate played no meaningful role and should be
abolished; at the same time, an Audit Chamber should be
created. With regard to demonopolization of the mass media,
Baymenov said it was not realistic to expect fast change. A
realistic first step might be to create a public committee

to oversee state television channel Kazakhstan 1. Ak Zhol
had also discussed the direct election of local akims, but
had not included it as a priority due to the likelihood that
Nazarbayev would not agree.

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Comment
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9. (SBU) Comment: Baymenov's assertion that he will not
take Ak Zhol's seat in Parliament, despite the fact that he
is the party's only well-known leader, raises the
possibility that he is keeping himself available for a GOK
position after the expected post-inaugural cabinet
reshuffle. His muted reaction to electoral violations and
renewed willingness to engage with the GOK, combined with an
offhand comment about how much his family wants to move to
Astana, could indicate that Baymenov is hoping for
recognition of his restrained approach during the campaign.
Time will tell. End comment.

ORDWAY


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