KAZAKHSTAN: UNUSUAL PUBLIC DEBATE ON SARSENBAIULY MURDER

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 ALMATY 001144

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/CEN (JMUDGE),SCA/PPD (JBASEDOW),DRL/PHD
(CKUCHTA-HELBLING)

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, KPAO, KDEM, KZ
SUBJ: KAZAKHSTAN: UNUSUAL PUBLIC DEBATE ON SARSENBAIULY
MURDER

Ref: Almaty 1018

1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Over the past six weeks, as Kazakhstani
politicians have grappled with the consequences of the
murder of opposition leader Altynbek Sarsenbaiuly in mid
February, an unusually broad public debate has taken place
among both independent and pro-government media. The
opposition unsurprisingly spoke out first to criticize the
authorities for their handling of the investigation.
President Nazarbayev's daughter and her husband followed
suit and publicized similar criticisms of the investigation
in their own popular newspaper and television station. END
SUMMARY.

Opposition Defines Issues of Public Debate
--------------

2. (SBU) Over the past six weeks, as Kazakhstani politicians
have debated who killed opposition leader Altynbek
Sarsenbaiuly and why, the opposition has largely framed the
public debate. When the crime was discovered February 13,
official and pro-government newspapers published the
president's condolences and started reporting factual
developments in the case only on February 21, when President
Nazarbayev taped a statement for official television, saying
that those responsible would be punished, and that
Kazakhstan was ready to cooperate with other countries
interested in investigating the case. (Note: In a normal
media environment, there would have been screaming headlines
from day one.) On February 14, the For a Just Kazakhstan
(FJK) opposition movement held a press conference at which
it demanded that Parliament convene a special session to
discuss the investigation with law enforcement. They also
organized their own Public Investigation Commission to track
the case.

3. (U) On February 22, after the National Security
Commmittee (KNB) issued a statement announcing the arrests
of five members of the KNB special forces, the opposition
Web site www.kub.kz reported that FJK's public commission
had met and concluded that the "real killers" and
masterminds were still free. The commission called on law
enforcement to ensure the safety of those arrested and asked
the Interior Minister and General Procurator to question
Sarsenbaiuly's political opponents, including Dariga
Nazarbayeva, who is the president's daughter and also a
Mazhilis deputy; her husband, Deputy Foreign Minister and
former KNB deputy Rakhat Aliyev; presidential nephew and
vice president of the national railroad company, Kairat
Satybaldy; as well as Eurasia group oligarchs Aleksandr
Mashkevich, Patokh Shodiyev, and Alidzhon Ibragimov. The
commission also made these demands in an open letter
addressed to General Procurator Rashid Tusupbekov and
Interior Minister Baurzhan Mukhamedzhanov in the February 23
edition of FJK's weekly newspaper, Svoboda Slova.

4. (U) On February 23, Senate administration head Yerzhan
Utembayev was arrested and charged with ordering the
murders. The same day, the opposition convened a press
conference, and FJK chairman Zharmakhan Tuyakbay demanded
the resignation of Utembayev's boss, Senate speaker Nurtay
Abykayev, "keeping in mind that he [Abykayev] is second in
command, and has an opportunity to influence the
investigation." Tuyakbay also said Utembayev was not
capable of planning such a "monstrous crime" alone. FJK
general secretary Tulegen Zhukeyev again urged law
enforcement to ensure the safety of those arrested, saying
their lives were in danger. (Abykayev responded in a Senate
press release published February 25 in pro-government and
official media; he said he had no influence over law
enforcement's conduct of the investigation.)

5. (U) Tuyakbay's and Zhukeyev's comments made the February
23 primetime TV news on centrist, independently owned
Channel 31, pro-government tabloid KTK TV, and the February
24 edition of pro-government tabloid Karavan, Kazakhstan's
highest circulation weekly (220,000). This was the first
time that comment from opposition press conferences was
reported by any television stations since the murder.

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Coverage by KTK and Karavan was surprising, since both are
reputedly owned by Nazarbayev son-in-law Rakhat Aliyev.

6. (U) The same Channel 31 news program included a report
about the difficulty of obtaining information about the case
and journalists having to rely on information "leaked" to
Internet sources. In introducing the segment, the anchor
said, "Kazakhstan's press finds itself in a strange
situation. These days, information about the investigation
of the Altynbek Sarsenbaiuly case is being reported ahead of
official reports, citing 'certain sources.' Official
sources only confirm what comes out unofficially." The
video showed unidentified opposition members crowded at the
entrance to the studios of the official broadcaster Khabar,
with the narrator commenting: "It's not clear what's going
on, whether this is a demonstration, a petition, or handing
a letter to management. Some opposition members are here
trying to get full and complete coverage with all the
details of the murder." The segment concluded with the
comment, "Today journalists are not fulfilling their
professional obligations and are instead becoming political
tools."

Sarsenbaiuly Murder First Salvo in "War of Succession"?
-------------- --------------

7. (U) In a February 24 article published in the opposition
weekly Prava. Ekonomika. Politika. Kul'tura. (formerly
Respublika),political analyst Yerlan Karin said that
Sarsenbaiuly's murder was the beginning of a struggle
between political forces vying to succeed President
Nazarbayev. On February 28, kub.kz posted several articles
from Russian newspapers on the theme, including Vremya
Novostey. The Vremya Novostey article claimed that Rakhat
Aliyev was behind the murder, and wanted to discredit the
KNB in order to oust his rival Abykayev and thus "clear his
way to the top." The February 23 issue of FJK's weekly Aina
Plus (formerly Zhuma Times) carried an interview with a
retired KNB colonel, who cited sources close to the
investigation and claimed Aliyev actually witnessed the
shooting.

Communist Party Leader Calls for State Commission
-------------- --------------

8. (U) On March 3, kub.kz published an open letter from
Communist Party leader Serikbolsyn Abdildin to President
Nazarbayev in which he called for a national commission
comprised of representatives from the KNB, the General
Procuracy, the Interior Ministry, Parliament, and FJK's
Public Investigation Commission "to ensure an open
investigative process." He also said independent observers,
doctors, and media representatives should be allowed to
speak with Utembayev.

Nazarbayeva Takes Up Opposition's Causes in Husband's Media
-------------- --------------

9. (SBU) In an unprecedented move, parliamentarian and first
daughter Nazarbayeva took up many of the same points made by
the opposition in the official news agency Kazakhstan Today,
as well as her husband's tabloid outlets KTK TV and the
Karavan newspaper. In a statement to Kazakhstan Today on
February 23, she expressed doubt that Utembayev was solely
responsible. In the next day's Karavan, she claimed the
murder was an attempt to discredit the president and to show
he was incapable of maintaining stability. In the March 3
issue of Karavan, she threatened legal action against anyone
who tried to implicate "close relatives of the president" in
the murder. In her March 10 Karavan article, she called for
Abykayev's resignation - repeating FJK's February 23 appeal
- and questioned whether oppositionist Zamanbek Nurkadilov
committed suicide. In yet another article on March 17, she
called for an open and transparent investigation into the
murders. (Abykayev responded during a pull aside March 23
with journalists at the Parliament, at which he called
Nazarbayeva's statements "emotional," and said he had no
intention of stepping down while the head of state still had
confidence in him.)

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Aliyev Threatens Legal Action Against Detractors
-------------- ---

10. (U) Aliyev, in response to those speculating about his
role in Sarsenbaiuly's murder, posted a statement on March 1
on the progressive news Web site www.mizinov.net, in which
he said that lately several print and Internet media outlets
had "staged a whisper campaign" accusing him and other well
known people of having been allegedly involved in
Sarsenbaiuly's assassination. Aliyev said his lawyers were
working on lawsuits against the author of the libel and
that, "In any civilized country, false accusations of
committing serious crimes are prosecuted by law."

Otan Parliamentarian Doubts Official Versions
--------------

11. (U) In a series of statements published in the
progressive news Web site mizinov.net and the progressive
weekly Vremya newspaper (circulation 180,000),Serik
Abdrakhmanov, a member of the president's Otan party and
head of the Mazhilis International Affairs, Defense, and
Security Committee, expressed his doubts about Nurkadilov's
suicide and Utembayev's role and motive in the Sarsenbaiuly
murder. On March 2, Mizinov.net posted excerpts from a
statement Abdrakhmanov addressed to the president, in which
he called for the president "to be closer to the people and
closer to the truth because no one believes the official
versions [of Nurkadilov's suicide and Sarsenbaiuly's
murder]. The trouble is, if we do not find the truth,
bloody crimes will continue to take place in the future."
In an interview with Vremya March 9, Abdrakhmanov stepped
back from a total denunciation of the Sarsenbaiuly
investigation and said vaguely that after "very serious
meetings" March 6 with officials involved in the
Sarsenbaiuly murder investigation, he accepted "some facts
supporting the official version" without specifying which
ones. He said he still had doubts about Utembayev and
Nurkadilov.

12. (SBU) In a conversation with the Ambassador on March 30,
Abdrakhmanov said that his main reason for speaking out was
the unconvincing and non-transparent manner in which the
authorities were making announcements about the
investigation. He expressed gratitude for the FBI's
involvement, but said it was regrettable that the
Kazakhstani public had greater confidence in the FBI than
their own law enforcement. He said he had spoken to the
President about his concerns, and was not about to back
down. In the meantime, he confirmed that the procuracy is
trying to interrogate him, an approach he finds outrageous
and not legally justified.

Patriots Party Leader: One Man Has Too Much Power
-------------- --------------

13. (U) In his March 9 interview with Vremya, Patriots Party
chairman Gani Kasymov said Sarsenbaiuly's murder was
possible because of a "lack of checks and balances" and "a
super concentration of power in one person's hands." In an
apparent reference to Utembayev's confession, Kasymov said
the investigation reminded him of 1937, when "confession was
the queen of proof." In rambling, angry, rhetorical
questions, he asked, "Why does the state kill its own
CITIZENS? Why are special forces urged to protect
Kazakhstan from Al Qaeda and other terrorists, while killing
Kazakhstanis? Why are state funds being spent to constantly
shadow opposition leaders if it is against the law? When
will it [the National Democratization Commission] finally
start working?" (Note: the first meeting of the National
Democratization Commission took place on March 24, and was
chaired by President Nazarbayev.)

14. (SBU) COMMENT: In the weeks since the Sarsenbaiuly
murder, Kazakhstanis have had the chance - unusual in
Kazakhstan, if commonplace elsewhere - to watch a heated
political struggle play itself out in the media. As one
informed observer of the local political scene commented to

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us recently, "It's as if the iceberg has flipped over, and
all the battles that usually take place out of sight are now
in public view." If this debate serves to increase public
demand for independent reporting and open debate, then there
will be at least one positive result from the death of an
outspoken advocate for media freedom. END COMMENT.

Ordway