KAZAKHSTAN: POLITICAL FALLOUT FROM SARSENBAIULY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ALMATY 001018

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN (J. MUDGE),DRL/PHD (C. KUCHTA-HELBLING)

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: POLITICAL FALLOUT FROM SARSENBAIULY
MURDER

REF: ALMATY 887 AND PREVIOUS


1. (SBU) Summary: The murder of Altynbek Sarsenbaiuly
continues to cause political shockwaves in Kazakhstan.
Allegations by the opposition of First Family involvement and
charges of high-level cover-up (reftel) have prompted first
daughter Dariga Nazarbayeva to go on the offensive by
accusing former KNB head Dutbayev of involvement and calling
for Senate Speaker Nurtay Abykayev's resignation.
Nazarbayeva's husband, First Deputy Foreign Minister Rakhat
Aliyev, has been the focus of much public speculation.
Meanwhile, the opposition continues its united front in
calling on the government to conduct a transparent and
complete investigation. End summary.

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Dariga Lashes Out
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2. (SBU) Most political leaders from President Nazarbayev on
down are remaining silent as the investigation progresses.
In a move that has surprised observers of the Kazakhstani
political scene, however, first daughter, Asar party leader,
and Mazhilis member Dariga Nazarbayeva has come out swinging
in the press to defend her husband Rakhat Aliyev. In a
March 10 article in the "Karavan" newspaper (controlled by
Aliyev),Dariga wrote that "something is wrong in our
country" when a person can be killed by the security forces
in broad daylight. She also cast doubt on the official
conclusion that former Nazarbayev insider turned
oppositionist Nurkadilov had committed suicide, thereby
implicitly criticizing her father. Dariga claimed that
former KNB head Dutbayev had immediately told President
Nazarbayev that either Rakhat Aliyev, Timur Kulibayev, or
presidential nephew Kairat Satybaldiy were behind
Sarsenbaiuly's murder. She alleged that Dutbayev was in
league with the opposition to destabilize the political
situation by framing Nazarbayev's relatives. Dariga also
called on Abykayev to resign. She compared recent events to
the situation in November 2001 (when the President forced the
departure of her husband for Vienna after fierce political
infighting),claiming this was a "second attempt to stop the
development of society and to stop political reforms."


3. (SBU) In a March 17 Karavan interview, Dariga called for
the investigation into the murders to be conducted in a
transparent manner. She said that transparency was the only
guarantee that the truth would come out, putting an end to
political speculation. Dariga also commented that it was a
shame that the Anglo-American jury model had been rejected.
She called for the Sarsenbaiuly murder court hearings to be
open to the press and public in order to allay distrust in
the judicial system. (Note: After extended debate,
Kazakhstan has just adopted the "continental model" for its
jury system. Jurors will determine guilt or innocence
together with the participation of the judge, rather than
separately as in the Anglo-American system. End note.)

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Harsh Rhetoric at Rally in Memory of Sarsenbaiuly
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4. (SBU) "For a Just Kazakhstan" (FJK) organized a rally in
Almaty on March 18 to commemorate the 40-day anniversary
(important in Muslim belief) of Sarsenbaiuly's death.
Banners at the rally and remarks by the speakers listed
several purported "victims of political terror," including
Sarsenbaiuly; his associates Baurzhan Bekbosyn and Anatoliy
Zhurablyov; Zamanbek Nurkadilov; Oksana Nikitina, the slain
14-year old daughter of an FJK activist; and journalist
Askhat Sharipzhanov, who was hit by a car and killed in July
2004 after interviewing Sarsenbaiuly, and Nurkadilov.


5. (SBU) The rally gathered all the leaders of the opposition
movement except Bulat Abilov, still serving his sentence for
participation in the February 26 Sarsenbaiuly memorial
gathering, and Alikhan Baymenov (not a member of FJK). FJK
leader Zharmakhan Tuyakbay was the first speaker. He accused
the authorities of using fierce methods to oppress the
opposition and smother freedom of speech, dismissed the
possibility that Utembayev was responsible, and called for a
complete investigation. "It doesn't matter to us who is
responsible," said Tuyakbay, "be it someone from the
parliament, the government, or the president's family. They
must be brought to justice." Zhakiyanov spoke next, and was
greeted with extended applause. (After the ceremony he had
to struggle through a large crowd of admirers wanting to

ALMATY 00001018 002 OF 002


shake his hand, kiss his cheek, or get his autograph.)
Zhakiyanov criticized Nazarbayev for not speaking out and for
not allowing Parliament to examine the issue, and called on
the president to explain himself to the people. He said that
Nurkadilov and Sarsenbaiuly had both paid the ultimate price
for speaking out, and called on the public "not just to talk
and to think, but to act and to demand that the guilty be
brought to justice."


6. (SBU) Other speakers included Sarsenbauily's brother
Rysbek Sarsenbayev, Irina Sovostina of the "Pokoleniye"
pensioners' movement, Oraz Zhandosov (True Ak Zhol and FJK),
Asylbek Kozhakhmetov (Alga),Tulen Tokhtasynov (Communist
Party),Petr Svoik (FJK),Tulegen Zhukeyev (True Ak Zhol and
FJK),and Amirzhan Kosanov (FJK and the former RNPK). They
all echoed Tuyakbay's and Zhakiyanov's calls for a complete
investigation, demanded that Nazarbayev answer the public's
many questions about the murder, referred to the European
Parliament's March 16 resolution on the murders, and spoke of
the need to work toward freedom and democracy in order to
honor Sarsenbaiuly's memory.


7. (SBU) Zhandosov told the crowd that he had been part of
the February 2003 delegation to Moscow when Utembayev had
missed a meeting at the Kremlin. He reported that the
following morning, Nazarbayev had surmised that Utembayev had
gone "back to his bad habits," i.e. drinking. Zhandosov
denied that the incident had had any impact on Utembayev's
career, as he had remained at the Presidential Administration
until his boss Abykayev was replaced by Imangali
Tasmagambetov and transferred to the Senate. As is usually
the case, Kozhakhmetov's remarks were the most provocative;
he claimed that Nazarbayev had fired Dutbayev for daring to
implicate members of the First Family in the murder. He also
asked why the police had not yet interrogated Aliyev.


8. (SBU) The rally took place behind the Saryarka movie
theater on the western outskirts of Almaty. Organizers had
asked to hold the event at the centrally-located Academy of
Sciences, but the akimat instead issued the permit for the
more remote location. POEC chief and POL FSN estimated the
crowd at about 2,000. Organizers claim that 5000-6000 people
attended. Police were present in large numbers but did not
appear to discourage participation or disrupt the
proceedings. Riot police were also present but remained in
their buses. (Note: It is politically significant that
Almaty akim Tasmagambetov, an influential political figure
with his own aspirations to higher office, allowed the rally
to take place unimpeded. End note.)

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Comment
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9. (SBU) Comment: The upheaval caused by Sarsenbaiuly's
murder has pushed elite political infighting into the bright
light of day. Contacts in the opposition describe Dariga
Nazarbayeva as 'unnerved' at the moment as the result of the
public scrutiny and accusations. Her unprecedented press
statements indicate a sense of desperation, raising the
question of whether President Nazarbayev is for the time
being not taking sides among the various camps. Meanwhile,
the opposition movement has a new sense of purpose and
energy, and increasing public visibility. Whereas most
observers expected For a Just Kazakhstan to fade away after
the elections, its staff and press operation have cranked
back up to call not only for justice for Altynbek
Sarsenbaiuly, but also for real political reform. One has to
wonder if the mastermind of the murder could have foreseen
all the results. End comment.
ORDWAY