CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGE IN THE AIR

C O N F I D E N T I A L ALGIERS 000916

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/20/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM AG
SUBJECT: CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGE IN THE AIR

REF: ALGIERS 694

Classified By: Ambassador Richard W. Erdman,
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

SUMMARY AND COMMENT
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1. (C) Efforts for revising the 1996 Algerian Constitution,
are now are now well-advanced, with a series of concrete
proposals/options that have been put forward for
consideration to the highest levels. Any revision supported
by the President will ultimately require a popular referendum
or a favorable vote by both the National Assembly and Senate.
This process is unfolding amid increased political jockeying
for the 2007 legislative and municipal elections, sharpening
tensions within the three-party presidential coalition,
persistent signs of a cabinet reshuffle in the offing, and
continuing uncertainty over the real state of President
Bouteflika's health. The principal constitutional proposals
under discussion include: 1) eliminating or downgrading the
position of prime minister (head of government) to reflect
the de facto reality that the President is both head of state
and head of government; 2) establishing a Vice Presidency to
ensure a smooth transition; 3) upgrading the powers of the
Council of the Nation (Senate) to ensure it is a more
effective counterweight to the Assembly; and 4) changing the
presidential term of office, either by permitting a third
5-year mandate or retaining the current two-term limit while
increasing the mandate from five to seven years.


2. (C) Minister of State Belkhadem, a conservative Muslim
nationalist who heads the majority FLN Party (199 seats in
the Assembly) and who publicly called this week for PM
Ouyahia to be replaced, has been the most outspoken voice for
constitutional reform, a more purely presidential system, a
third presidential mandate, and the right of the majority
party to leadership of the government. The moderate Islamic
MSP (Movement for Society and Peace),with 38 seats and an
eye on competition from the conservative wing of the FLN, has
also supported constitutional revision and joined the attack
on Ouyahia, his erstwhile presidential coalition partner who
heads the RND (National Democratic Rally -- 50 seats). Both
the FLN and MSP have also called for the naming of a
technocrat as Prime Minister in order to ensure strict
impartiality in the 2007 elections.


3. (C) The military, which remains a key if not always
visible part of the political equation here, is said to be
strongly in favor of creating a Vice Presidency and to be
grooming Ouyahia for the position in order to ensure a smooth
transition, whether or not Bouteflika is able to complete his
current term. How this fits into the unfolding scenario, in
which Ouyahia, the longest serving prime minister in
Algeria's recent history, is eased out of office, remains to
be sorted out. What is clear is that constitutional revision
is moving forward, that the process will be increasingly
intertwined with pre-election maneuvering, and that the order
of political events, at least as of now, is likely to be a
cabinet reshuffle in the near future, constitutional revision
in coming months, parliamentary elections in spring 2007,
and local elections in fall 2007. (End Summary and Comment.)

SOMETHING OLD, SOMETHING NEW
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4. (C) Since 1999, President Bouteflika has spoken of the
need for constitutional reforms, such as a stronger and more
democratic Senate akin to that of France or the United
States. (Members of the current Algerian Senate neither
propose nor amend laws; they effectively do not legislate.)
We suspect the reason the President would want a stronger
Senate is to counterbalance the Assembly more effectively.
This is important because the Assembly will likely have a
more Islamist complexion after 2007. Thus, a strengthened
Senate, which is one-third appointed by the President, will
have an even more important braking and balancing role, and
increase the President's ability to control the situation.


5. (C) Another frequently touted proposal, although not by
Bouteflika himself, has been amending the constitution to
allow Bouteflika to seek a third five-year term in office.
Over the years, many have argued for the need to move toward
a more purely presidential system, thus avoiding the kind of
situation that arose when former Prime Minister Benflis
became a competing power center and president rival in 2003.
Under current thinking, this would be addressed by formally
making the President's both head of state and head of
government (the defacto situation now),downgrading or
eliminating the post of Prime Minister, and creating instead
the position of Vice President. Others have looked to
redefine the power and prerogatives of the Prime Minister.
Under the current constitution, for example, the Prime
Minister need not be a sitting member of Parliament. A
reform requiring such a change would conceivably change the
dynamics of parliamentary representation, allowing the
majority party to exert more influence on the selection and
reducing the President's room for maneuver. (For this
reason, we doubt Bouteflika would support such a move.)

THIRD TERM FOR BOUTEFLIKA?
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6. (C) Since last autumn, FLN leader Abdelaziz Belkhadem has
called for a constitutional reform that would allow
Bouteflika, who regards himself as "above political parties,"
to present his candidacy for a third term. Our contacts tell
us Belkhadem understands that the proposal is not
particularly popular with the broader public due to questions
about Bouteflika's health. They explain, however, that
rallying around Bouteflika -- and a third term for him --
goes over well with the disparate FLN membership, from
conservative Islamists to Western-oriented bourgeoisie, and
serves to unite FLN members in a way that nothing else can.
Talk of a third term for the President also reassures the
party faithful (and the public in general) that Bouteflika
is, in fact, in good health. A variation of approving
mandate would be keeping the two-mandate limit while
extending an individual term from five to seven years. Under
this French-style system, a president could thus serve 14
years rather than 15 with three terms. At the end of the
day, revising the presidential term to allow Bouteflika more
time in office may be moot because few people think he will
be physically able to govern beyond the end of his current
mandate, if indeed he is able to complete his current term of
office.

CHANGE IN SELECTION OF PRIME MINISTER
NEEDED IN ADVANCE OF 2007 ELECTIONS
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7. (C) The politically ambitious Belkhadem has recently
claimed he does not want to be Prime Minister. However, he
wants to position himself for the presidency, resents
Ouyahia's current hold on the prime ministership since the
FLN has the majority of Assembly seats, and wants to push
Ouyahia out of a position that might give him and his RND
party an advantage in the 2007 elections. In this regard,
FLN and MSP have called for a technocrat to lead the
government in order to ensure the neutrality of the 2007
voting process. Minister of Water Resources Abdelmalek
Sellal and Minister of Finance Khelil are the most frequently
mentioned technocratic candidates for the post. Belkhadem's
push for constitutional revision and giving the majority
party the top leadership within government under the
president would seem to be part of this strategy. In this
regard, Belkhadem's strategy also suggest a high level of
confidence that the FLN will emerge as the dominant party in
the 2007 elections.
ERDMAN