SENATE PRESIDENCY THE PRIZE OF UPCOMING ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L ALGIERS 002067

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/03/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM AG
SUBJECT: SENATE PRESIDENCY THE PRIZE OF UPCOMING ELECTIONS


Classified By: Ambassador Robert S. Ford, reasons 1.4 (b/d)

POWER NOT IN THE HANDS OF THE PEOPLE
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1. (U) The Ministry of Interior announced last month that the
wilaya councils (roughly equivalent to U.S. state
legislatures) will elect 48 senators December 28 to the
Conseil de la Nation (the national upper house, usually
referred to as the Senate). In addition to these contested
seats, President Bouteflika will appoint 24 senators. The 72
senators (48 elected, 24 appointed) whose six-year mandates
are up for renewal make up half the total membership of the
body. Two senators represent each wilaya. President
Bouteflika may reappoint as many of the 24 senators he
appointed six years ago as he likes. In the past, he has
generally sought to appoint notable figures of political or
academic backgrounds.


2. (U) Of the two-thirds of Senators elected by the wilaya
councils, the National Democratic Rally (RND) currently
controls more than two-thirds of the 96 seats. The FLN comes
in second with fewer than 30 seats. The moderate Islamist
Movement for a Society of Peace (MSP) controls a handful of
seats, with the Islamist opposition Islah party and both
Berber opposition parties each having one elected senator.
Given the dominance of the FLN in the current composition of
wilaya councils, analysts expect that party to make
impressive gains in Senate elections at the expense of the
other parties.

THE SENATE'S POWER TO SAY NO
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3. (SBU) Most Algerians view the Senate as a costly and
ineffective body. It is not uncommon for Algerians to
complain that the money spent on seating senators could be
better spent. A university professor told us bluntly: "Why
should the Public Treasury overpay people for saying yes or
no to a law? Since senators are unable to amend legislation
from the lower house, the entire body is useless and its
existence without justification." What the public does not
well understand, one political scientist tells us, is that
the Senate can reject a law if one third of its members
oppose it. It is not by coincidence that the president
appoints one-third of the Senate. Indeed, the Senate, given
the civil strife and terrorism of the 1990s, was originally
created nine years ago with the idea that the president
needed to have the power to block Islamist-inspired
legislation. In reality, the Senate has exercised its
legislative veto only three times.

FLN EXPECTED TO MAKE IMPRESSIVE GAINS
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4. (C) Ahmed Ouyahia, former prime minister and current head
of the RND party, is campaigning in 40 wilayas in an effort
to keep the RND majority of elected senators. One RND
official told us late November that Ouyahia's campaign tour
was necessary because the FLN had launched a "very
aggressive" campaign across the nation in order to capture a
majority of seats. Several political party operatives,
however, question the wisdom of Ouyahia's campaign tour given
the likelihood of a strong FLN showing. Keen observers of
the Algerian political scene expect Bouteflika to appoint
former finance minister Abdelatif Benachenhou, former
Ambassador Lakhdar Brahimi, and former Ambassador to the U.S.
Layachi Yaker to the Senate. These individuals are loyal to
the president and the FLN and are antagonistic to RND leader
(and possible Bouteflika successor) Ouyahia. Bouteflika's
appointment of them would signal a deepening of his reliance
on the FLN since Bouteflika replaced Ouyahia as prime
minister with FLN party head Belkhadem. Well-known Algerian
writer Tahar Oattar and Aicha Barki, the president of a
non-governmental organization that combats illiteracy, have
the inside track among non-political figures, according to
political party sources. Barki is known for her visible
support of Bouteflika and personal integrity; Oattar, widely
regarded for his wisdom, would reinforce the thoughtful image
of the Senate that Bouteflika wishes to convey.

SENATE LEADER FIRST IN SUCCESSION TO BOUTEFLIKA
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5. (C) A former Senate vice president and current member of
the FLN executive committee told us in strictest confidence
the biggest prize in the Senate is not the membership of the
body itself but the election of its president, who assumes on
a temporary basis the functions of the president of the
republic when a vacancy occurs. In his interim role, the
president of the Senate would also organize presidential
elections (in which he himself could not be a candidate) to
replace the president of the republic. Given the uncertain
state of Bouteflika's health, the new Senate president is
likely to have a leading role on the national stage. At this
juncture, it is too early to place bets on which senator the
members of the Senate (both elected and appointed) will
choose to lead the body. In any event, the Senate vice
president who spoke with us expects the senators to take the
election of their body's president more seriously than usual
this year.

FORD