Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06ALGIERS1978
2006-11-15 16:11:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Algiers
Cable title:  

BOUTEFLIKA'S HEALTH BECOMES THE SUBJECT OF OPEN

Tags:  PGOV AG 
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VZCZCXYZ0013
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHAS #1978/01 3191611
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 151611Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY ALGIERS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2329
INFO RUEHTU/AMEMBASSY TUNIS 6365
RUEHRB/AMEMBASSY RABAT 1503
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 1993
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 1431
RUEHNK/AMEMBASSY NOUAKCHOTT 5863
RUEHCL/AMCONSUL CASABLANCA 2783
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
C O N F I D E N T I A L ALGIERS 001978 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/15/2016
TAGS: PGOV AG
SUBJECT: BOUTEFLIKA'S HEALTH BECOMES THE SUBJECT OF OPEN
SPECULATION

REF: ALGIERS 1835

Classified By: Ambassador Robert Ford, reasons 1.4 (b, d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L ALGIERS 001978

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/15/2016
TAGS: PGOV AG
SUBJECT: BOUTEFLIKA'S HEALTH BECOMES THE SUBJECT OF OPEN
SPECULATION

REF: ALGIERS 1835

Classified By: Ambassador Robert Ford, reasons 1.4 (b, d)


1. (C) Summary: President Bouteflika's remark to the media
on November 13 that his health has improved has not stopped
speculation about his medical situation. Many of our
political contacts speculate that the President's physical
condition is behind the delay in a referendum on
constitutional amendments. Our sense is that very few
Algerian officials really know the truth about Bouteflika's
health, but we tend also to think that lack of consensus
among the top circles of power about his successor is indeed
behind the indefinite postponement of the referendum. End
Summary.


2. (C) Algerians are increasingly discussing and expressing
concern about President Bouteflika's health. His infrequent
public appearances and the postponement of a referendum on
constitutional reform expected for December have led ordinary
Algerians to conclude that the president's health is
declining. While the presidency denies that anything ails
Bouteflika, the public generally believes he suffers from
stomach or intestinal cancer. So widespread is the concern
that independent media reporting on what one paper called the
"deterioration" of Bouteflika's health has suddenly taken a
remarkable turn toward the prolific. By comparison, when
Bouteflika was hospitalized in Paris in late 2005, the
Algerian press -- both official and private -- stuck to
reporting the uninformative government communiques on
Bouteflika's condition.


3. (C) Prime Minister Belkhadem, in an unusual television
interview November 12, claimed that Bouteflika was healthy
and pondering two or three drafts of proposed changes to the
constitution. He echoed Interior Minister Zerhouni's
November 1st announcement of the delay in the referendum for
"technical reasons," saying that it would probably occur next
spring. Belkhadem stressed that the postponement was of
minor importance. Belkhadem's predecessor, Ahmed Ouyahia,
thought by most our contacts to be the leading candidate for
a new vice presidential position, separately asserted that
nothing was wrong with Bouteflika's health. These
reassurances from senior political leaders appear to be
having the opposite effect, confirming the suspicions of many

Algerians that something is indeed wrong with Bouteflika's
health. Bouteflika himself did not alleviate public concern
November 14 when he said alongside a visiting French
minister, "It's true that I was very ill, but now I am much
better."


4. (C) Senior representatives of the major political parties
who met with us this week continued to express support for
the "president's prerogative" to propose constitutional
changes that would be in the best interest of the country,
but they offered starkly different explanations for the
delay. Riad Anan of the FLN, Algeria's largest political
party of which Bouteflika is the honorary head, said the
delays were for purely technical reasons. Surprisingly, he
also agreed with RCD (opposition Berber) party representative
Tarik Mira's assertion that organizing a referendum was
problematic given the May 2007 parliamentary and October 2007
local elections already on the calendar. For his part, Mira
accepted the Interior Minister's "technical" explanation for
the delay. Opposition (and moderate Islamist) party Islah's
representative, on the other hand, believed Bouteflika had
encountered resistance to elements of his original proposal
and decided to consult further with key "political stake
holders" before bringing the plan to a vote.


5. (C) Probably because we met them as a group, the party
representatives avoided speculating on succession and
Bouteflika's health. The FLN's Anan said he was not a
physician and could not speak authoritatively on matters of
personal health. He nonetheless went to great lengths to
recall that Bouteflika had met with his ministers to review
their performance without resting or breaking his fast during
Ramadan. Could a sick man, he asked, show such stamina?
Anan said Bouteflika was no longer in his twenties and could
not be expected to be as vigorous as he was a few years ago.
No one disagreed.


6. (C) Comment: According to the current constitution, the
Senate president will become president of the republic if
Bouteflika dies in office. He assumes the post for 60 days

while presidential elections are held, but he cannot stand as
a candidate himself. The uncertain outcome of this process
appears to worry elements of the regime. A clearer line of
succession would address their concerns, but requires
settling on a particular candidate. The announcement of the
delay in the constitutional referendum is now being
interpreted both privately and in the independent media as
being linked to difficulties associated with choosing a
specific vice presidential candidate to put forward as part
of the reform proposal. Some insiders -- including an
ex-presidential counselor -- are even theorizing that the
ongoing succession debate will prompt a delay in the May
parliamentary elections. One well-informed contact close to
former PM (and presumed vice presidential contender) Ouyahia
waved aside all the media and political-cocktail-circuit
chatter. Only a handful of the top leaders (read Bouteflika
and the military) know the truth about Bouteflika's health,
he observed, and Bouteflika might yet surprise people. In
any case, the rest of Algeria will have to wait for those top
few to come to an agreement on what to do.
FORD