MP'S SPECULATE ON CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM,

C O N F I D E N T I A L ALGIERS 001835

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/16/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON KDEM AG
SUBJECT: MP'S SPECULATE ON CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM,
CABINET RESHUFFLE AND RENEWED REFORM


Classified By: CDA a.i. Thomas F. Daughton for reasons 1.4 (b),(d).


1. (C) We met separately October 16 with three respected
members of parliament who are also heavyweights in their
parties: Nourredine Benbraham (RND),Houria Bouhired (FLN),
and Lakhdar Benkhellaf (Islah). Benbraham and Bouhired
belong to the two largest parties in the presidential
coalition; Benkhellaf's moderate Islamist party is in the
opposition. During our discussions, the MPs commented on
President Bouteflika's plans for a referendum on
constitutional reform, speculated on his health and that of
Interior Minister Zerhouni, and offered views on the overall
pace of reform.

Health Concerns: Bouteflika and Zerhouni
--------------


2. (C) All three MPs mentioned Bouteflika's health as a
factor in current politics, but with clearly different
emphasis. Both RND's Benbraham and FLN's Bouhired stressed
that Bouteflika was working hard during Ramadan, staying in
the office and breaking his fast well after the vast majority
of Algerians. Emphasizing Bouteflika's satisfactory health,
Benbraham said that the president planned to travel to China
in early November. Islah's Benkhellaf, unlike his
presidential coalition counterparts, said Bouteflika's health
was a "real concern" for average Algerians. The lack of a
successor to Bouteflika weighed heavily on the minds of
citizens, he added.


3. (C) Turning to Interior Minister Zerhouni's health, which
the Algerian public knows has been failing for some time,
Benkhellaf and Benbraham understood that Zerhouni's illness
would soon compel him to submit his resignation -- if he had
not already done so. Benkhellaf remarked that Zerhouni was
spending more and more time in the U.S. receiving medical
treatment. Benbraham noted that in his absence Water
Resources Minister Sellal had attended Bouteflika's recent
series of meetings to review the performance of individual
ministers, fueling speculation that he might be Zerhouni's
replacement. Benbraham also commented that Bouteflika was
close to Zerhouni and placed much confidence in him; Zerhouni
would be a hard act to follow. Benkhellaf said the ill
health of both Bouteflika and Zerhouni complicated efforts to
make continued progress on national reconciliation, something
he said was of great concern to ordinary Algerians.

Constitutional Referendum
--------------


4. (C) All three MPs said that President Bouteflika would
announce his proposed changes to the constitution and the
date of the national referendum soon, probably around the
late October 'Eid al-Fitr holiday. All also agreed the
referendum would take place in December. Benkhellaf opined
that an amendment opening the possibility of a third
Bouteflika term was doubtful, given concerns about his state
of health. He added that key military actors supported the
creation of a vice presidency which, he said, was needed to
ease Algerian anxiety about presidential succession. The
current system, whereby the president of the Senate assumes
the national presidency if the incumbent dies in office, was
intended to provide only a caretaker for a few weeks while
new elections were organized. A single vice president,
Benkhellaf said, would serve as a political heir to
Bouteflika, something Algerians of all political persuasions
strongly endorsed. Benkhellaf expected this to be the model
Bouteflika proposed.

Political Reform
--------------


5. (C) Islah's Benkhellaf said national reform efforts had
slowed because of Bouteflika's ill health and the need to
focus on the constitutional referendum in order to pave the
way for a successor. Bouhired, a member of the party
Bouteflika heads, described ongoing successes in reform of
the judiciary, while regretting she had no other examples.
She told us to expect a major reshuffle of the cabinet and a
"radical" change after the December passage of the
constitutional referendum to put reform issues at the
forefront of the government's mandate. She also suggested
that Prime Minister Belkhadem, whose role would almost
certainly be diminished following the constitutional changes,
would likely be replaced.


6. (C) COMMENT: Our sources increasingly indicate that the
constitutional referendum will occur in December, probably

later in the month. It does not seem coincidental that the
MPs from presidential coalition parties both drew on the same
example to illustrate President Bouteflika's good health.
They gave the impression of a coalition seeking to convince
foreign observers that the president can continue to perform
his duties. Perhaps the most insightful comment we heard was
Benbraham's observation that national reconciliation stands
to suffer if Zerhouni and Bouteflika leave the scene.
Indeed, it is the prospect of backsliding in this regard that
concerns Algerians the most about presidential succession.
DAUGHTON